Disney 2Q Earnings Rise 27 Percent

[Another Voice]

If you had an on-demand version of a new series similar in scope to Lost or DH or whatever.. How do you let the masses know how great it is?

Well...how does a studio generate interest in a movie? There's no long network run there. A movie hits the theatre and the audience shows up based on their interests. How does a movie studio tell the masses how great their product is? It's marketing, you go out tell people the shows about to come out.

How do series get started anyway? When was the last time a series was allowed to discover an audience? It seems to me that broadcast television is already just like the movies - you're an immediate hit or you're killed. Current practice runs completely opposite to your agurement (and does much to actually hurt television).


I think television (and movies) are going to develop into a business similar to the way music is today. People are going to have to pay for first run entertainment; an entire industry will develop around its marketing and promotion. High end product will probably be pay-for-view or a premimum subscription. That's the model HBO is in now. Their core is quickly becoming hit series; as a consumer I have to decide if HBO is offering enough shows I like to continue paying to recieve the channel.

Series will be more along the lines of what they have in Britian - a dozen or so episodes and nothing more. If the show is a hit, they'll make more. If not, the series concludes and everyone goes on their way. No more American style "it lasts until the run out of audience or ideas" programming. Wish they had done with 'Lost' from the beginning.

Broadcast is going to be akin to radio, relegated to replaying previously released products on its fourth or fifth go around. There will always be "original" programming, but the moment Disney figures out how to get people to pay to download 'Desperate Housewives' (and that will come the moment Iger gives them the go ahead to do nudity...don't laugh, it's coming) - ABC is becomes what ABC Family is today; a dump yard.

 

[CanadianGuy]

Compelling arguments in part.. but yet.. I am not yet fully convinced.

I think the shorter series thing is definitely coming... how that affects the syndication market and so on.. hard to say.

Working in radio -- I take exception to this comment --

Broadcast is going to be akin to radio, relegated to replaying previously released products on its fourth or fifth go around.

That may be true of music formatted stations to a degree.. but there's lots and lots of really and truly original and compelling radio programming happening on the first go around.

Knox

 

[Another Voice]

but there's lots and lots of really and truly original and compelling radio programming happening on the first go around.

But imagine if you worked for NBC's "Red" or "Blue" networks before WWII and then take a look at radio today. Radio at its height had entire nations gathered in the living room at set times to listen to 'The Shadow' or 'George Burns' or Walter Winchell. Radio held the nation together, from news reports of the growing war in Europe or the war the Martians had stated in New Jersey.

Today, radio is essentially relegated to people's cars. And the only time people care about it is when dimwitted blowhards make bad jokes about college basketball teams.

Yes, just as there is radio today, there will be some form of broadcast television. Even then, most of it will be "broadcast" on the Internet. It's the path of all entertainment technology - the shift is always to the conveniece of the consumer. Why go to a movie theater when you can get programming beamed into my house; why should I wait for a broadcaster's schedule when I can point my browser whenever I want to.

Disney could have been a leader here, but the last two CEO have been so in bed with the current system (it's made them both immorally rich), that they refuse to see what's coming. At best all they've attempted to do is squeeze a few more pennies through tweaks - when the real money is going to be made figuring out the new world.

It's no different than in the late 1940's and early 1950's. Hollywood was terrified of television and none of the studios around town would have anything at all to do with it. But Walt Disney saw what he could do - expand beyond theatres and expand his company into every home in the country. He jumped at the opportunity - he created the first hit national children's show, one of the very first "appointment" series (the 'Wonderful World of Disney' set bedtime for children for a generation), and even created the very first media-sensation with 'Davy Crocket' (even 'Star Wars' today has no where near the impact on culture as Disney's mini-series had).

Can you imagine what the hype around an ad that said "Download 'The Adventures of Jack Sparrow - Episode 1' on July 23, only $5.99 at iTunes.com"?

 

[CanadianGuy]

AV:

You've just made the same arguments I made earlier in this thread... Each medium goes thru a period of dominance and then settles back to a lesser position as new media are introduced and go thru their period of dominance.

I think we actually agree more than we disagree on these points. But I still think that the networks have a position to play. And I do think one of them will figure it out sooner rather than later.

And I think we agree that I don't think ABC will be the first to get there..

Knox

 

[Another Voice]

But I still think that the networks have a position to play.

It's just a pity that Disney has destroyed itself - Feature Animation, parks, stores - to go playing around with a network they don't know what to do with. Imagine how strong Disney would be today without ABC dragging them down. From my point of view, its 50% Disney mismanagement and 50% the decline in networks. Sure, broadcast TV will still be around, but is that future worth the $50+ billion Disney has thrown at ABC over the years?