Disappointed in Deceiving Stand By Wait Times...

[freediverdude]

Like somebody else said, they shouldn't even need the red cards anymore with so many magicbands out there. Just track some of the magicbands as they go through the queue. I'm wondering if they already do and we just don't know it.

 

[Serenebean]

I usually just use my eyes and don't even look at the posted wait times. If you watch the line for about a minute, you'll get a sense of how fast it is moving. The only time we didn't do that was on the morning we were leaving we thought we'd get one more drop on ToT. Wandered over to HS (staying in Swan) around 9:30/10:00. Posted wait time was 50 min, we got in line and debated and decided what the heck, we would wait. Not a minute later a CM came down the line and said if you were beyond this point (about 4 people ahead of us) the wait would be 120 min, which we weren't willing to wait for. I can only guess there was a problem with one of the elevators, which they can not anticipate. All the aps and boards are just a guess, a good guess sometimes but a guess, I've seen the board flip over while standing in line.

Oh man, we got into line at ToT at the end of the night with a 20 min posted wait and once we got to the boiler room everything stopped and I knew something was up. Someone threw up and they closed the whole right side of the ride. It took us an hour or so when it was all done.

 

[Disneytam]

After a few trips to WDW, we realized that wait times were almost always about twice as much as the actual wait. So, if we are willing to wait 20 minutes for a ride and it says 40, we generally will get in that line. Sometimes this doesn't work, but I'd say 85% of the time it does.

Totally agree with this. On our last trip in Feb. almost every ride we waited in line for was about half the posted time. The exception to this was about an hour before close when most everything was a walk on but the posted wait times were nuts. For example we rode BTM twice in less time than the posted wait time.

 

[ArielSRL]

I'm another vote for the Lines app!

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Predicting wait times is never an easy thing. I do not believe that Disney deliberately manipulates the clocks in order to move the crowd. It's more just the nature of predicting queues. This is something my company has been working at for years.

It's odd that Disney still uses the red cards. There is no reason for that at this point since they have MB's. Even without MB's, there are lots of alternative methods using facial recognition or wifi triangulation to name a few. I assume they are phasing those out, but just slowly. However, you need to understand that even with those technologies, there are limits to predictive behavior. And why is that? Because humans are by nature unpredictable. the amount of time it takes to load or unload a car or how long someone takes - even if it's by seconds - will build up and affect the long term viability of any predictive method. Since predictions are ALWAYS 5 minutes in the past, the present i much harder (although you can make attempts by tracking the number of people in the line and the average load time, but they are even more complex algorithms). Add to that a wheelchair access which stops the ride or someone tripping. the unpredictable flow of people outside the regular lines (like single pass riders or fast pass), mechanical breakdowns, and other random factors.

Odd as it may sound, your most accurate times are in the middle of the day (which there is a consistent data set) rather then first thing in the morning or late in the day where crowds are more flux.

If it were easy, there wouldn't be hundreds of companies tackling the issue.

 

[KaSe]

Thats why I like to going on Touring Plans line app and see what they are saying vs. my disney experience... If theres a large discrepancy then something not right.

I was going to suggest the same thing. I've found the Touring Plans app to be MUCH more accurate than the posted wait times in the parks.

 

[Orsino]

Not counting the late night shenanigans, daytime wait times can be difficult due to fast pass. Back in the day, they had physical signs at the entrance that said "30 minute wait from this sign" It was an estimate based on the number of people in line and were rough, but based on solid reasoning. Inaccuracy would happen when the line happened to be more closely packed than usual.
Now with fast pass, it is harder to judge based on line length. Even if Disney knew exactly how many people were in front of you in standby, fast pass requires forecasting. I'm guessing the system posts a wait time based on the 'worst case' scenario where everyone with a fast pass that could get in front of you will get in front of you. Thus the posted wait times have to be higher than what you will probably experience.

 

[JimmyV]

If they didn't try to guess the time, then everyone would be entering with a 10 minute posted wait (because that's what the time cards showed at that moment) but would instead be waiting an hour.

Happened to me. We went to Epcot about 4 or 5 days after they implemented FP+ as a stand alone platform and removed the FP- kiosks. So it is possible that they didn't have a good handle on the situation yet. Anyway...we did our usual RD sprint to Soarin' and then our immediate sprint to Test Track. Done this 50 times before. Always the same result. Walk on to Soarin' followed by a 15-20 minute wait at Test Track. Only this time, we walked on to Soarin' -- as before, sprinted to Test Track -- as before, saw the Wait Time clock show "15 minutes", -- got in line.....and waited 74 minutes to ride. Yes, I timed it. After about 20 minutes, we figured that we were so invested in the line by that time that we decided to simply stay put. The group in front of us was livid. (I was too, but I didn't make a scene.) The only thing I can think of is that the CMs didn't know how the new FP+ system would impact wait times. In the past, the earliest FPs were for 9:40 or so, so if you got in line before that, no one could cut you off. Under FP+, people with FPs were entering the line beginning at 9:00 slowing down the SB line. In any event, it can and does happen that posted wait times are inaccurate in both directions.

 

[Sevey13]

I'm another vote for the Lines app!

After seeing it mentioned here, I checked out the app. I like that it is available simply as a website, as I have a Windows Phone and devs don't like to show us love. I noticed you have to pay for most of the times, though. Is that correct?

 

[MaryKatesMom]

:

Happened to me. We went to Epcot about 4 or 5 days after they implemented FP+ as a stand alone platform and removed the FP- kiosks. So it is possible that they didn't have a good handle on the situation yet. Anyway...we did our usual RD sprint to Soarin' and then our immediate sprint to Test Track. Done this 50 times before. Always the same result. Walk on to Soarin' followed by a 15-20 minute wait at Test Track. Only this time, we walked on to Soarin' -- as before, sprinted to Test Track -- as before, saw the Wait Time clock show "15 minutes", -- got in line.....and waited 74 minutes to ride. Yes, I timed it. After about 20 minutes, we figured that we were so invested in the line by that time that we decided to simply stay put. The group in front of us was livid. (I was too, but I didn't make a scene.) The only thing I can think of is that the CMs didn't know how the new FP+ system would impact wait times. In the past, the earliest FPs were for 9:40 or so, so if you got in line before that, no one could cut you off. Under FP+, people with FPs were entering the line beginning at 9:00 slowing down the SB line. In any event, it can and does happen that posted wait times are inaccurate in both directions.

We went through the IG 1/2 hour before opening the Monday after Easter. By the time we walked to TT everyone at the main gate was there ahead of us and the line was CRAZY long by the time we got to the door the wait time was 68 minutes at 9:02 AM. We bailed and did the single rider line but I was livid. What the heck good is it to get to the gate an hour before opening only to have the privilege of getting behind absolutely everyone else?

 

[bfost87]

This is a first for me, I've never seen someone upset because they had a shorter than expected wait..

 

[ArielSRL]

After seeing it mentioned here, I checked out the app. I like that it is available simply as a website, as I have a Windows Phone and devs don't like to show us love. I noticed you have to pay for most of the times, though. Is that correct?

I have a subscription to the touring plans site. It cost me about $10 for the year which to me is worth it. So I don't know if that's why the Lines app is free for me or not. Maybe someone with more knowledge will chime in here.

 

[Chrelaine]

I have a subscription to the touring plans site. It cost me about $10 for the year which to me is worth it. So I don't know if that's why the Lines app is free for me or not. Maybe someone with more knowledge will chime in here.

Yes, the membership makes Lines free. Totally worth the approx. $10/year for us, too. I downloaded the app to my phone mid trip last year after waiting over an hour for Buzz when the posted time showed 25 minutes.

 

[ITALIANNYC]

.. Deleted post..

 

[KaSe]

I have a subscription to the touring plans site. It cost me about $10 for the year which to me is worth it. So I don't know if that's why the Lines app is free for me or not. Maybe someone with more knowledge will chime in here.

Yep. This is correct & definitely worth the price. Personally, we only pay for the subscription in years when we have a trip planned. So in the "off" years, we just don't renew it.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Quick question: if you get in a standby line on the hour or soon after (e.g., 11:00, 12:00, etc.), will there be a lot more FP+ people coming in at that time? If someone's FP+ time says 10-11, do they tend to take advantage of their window as soon as it opens?

 

[snayak]

Quick question: if you get in a standby line on the hour or soon after (e.g., 11:00, 12:00, etc.), will there be a lot more FP+ people coming in at that time? If someone's FP+ time says 10-11, do they tend to take advantage of their window as soon as it opens?

Thats a good question - but, times are not just on the hour, I think you can schedule FP+ on every 10 or 15 minutes so return windows would be 10-11, 10:10-11:10, 10:20-11:20 - and all the windows overlap (or 10-11, 10:15-11:15, etc). I have seen a FP+ line be ridiculously long, because of either a large group or (user) issue at the tapstile and then its gone like 10 minutes later.

It would not surprise me to officially learn that Disney displays wait times to manipulate crowds, particularly in the morning or at close - can you imagine going to MK during a Early Magic Morning and seeing a 105 minute wait time for 7DMT at RD? Should have bought the extras! Or a 90 minute window at 6:45 on a party evening?

 

[wisblue]

Quick question: if you get in a standby line on the hour or soon after (e.g., 11:00, 12:00, etc.), will there be a lot more FP+ people coming in at that time? If someone's FP+ time says 10-11, do they tend to take advantage of their window as soon as it opens?

I would say no. FP return times are not all on the hours. They come every 5 minutes, like 10:05-11:05, 10:10-11:10, etc.

It is impossible to predict when people will return with FPs, or if they will return at all. And that makes it that much more difficult to post accurate wait times for rides with FPs, which is now almost all of them.

IMHO, the biggest thing to avoid is planning on entering a standby line shortly after the end of a nearby show or parade. Like going to BTMRR right after the FOF parade ends or going to the Safari right after a FOTLK show lets out.

 

[kellyh57]

We were there the week before Easter and it was mostly the opposite. Wait times were MUCH longer than posted on some rides. We saw many families that only had one person waiting in line and they'd join up right before getting on the ride. We figured that had to be a big part of it. You can't judge a line by the people not even in it who jump in at the last second! My husband and boys got in line at RnR with a posted wait time of 120 minutes. They came over the speaker and said wait times were longer than anticipated (they didn't even hear it in the line) and they added time to the posted wait time. It was close to 3 hours of waiting. So annoying.

 

[Sevey13]

This whole thing is making me wonder...and I would be fascinated by an article on this...how do the standby line times get set? Is it by a CM at the attraction in the control booth? Is it at a central ops center for the whole park? How do they change the times throughout the day to move people around (Disney freely admits they try to disperse crowds through the park so that if Fantasyland is too crowded, for example, they roll out a mini parade near the castle or a show in Adventureland). Any insights?