DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[Obi-J Kenobi]

We all want to forget Covid, but Covid alone adding something like $15B to debt, not including the lost forever cashflows that would have taken a bite out of the debt back then.

I will never forget Covid. I am an attorney for a governmental body. Every day I parsed Covid numbers, attended meetings and prepared legal documents to assist our public health department. When many, many folks were laid-off or worked from home, I came to the office every single day. I'm thankful I didn't lose my job and had an office to be at every day. I have family and friends who lost jobs or had their lives completely upended because of Covid. TWDC should be very thankful and blessed that the State of Florida allowed WDW to reopen as soon as it did.

I truly wonder how grateful the executives at TWDC are that WDW was allowed to reopen. Florida allowing TWDC to reopen WDW may have saved the company from complete financial ruin. After all, TWDC had so many other avenues to make money during Covid.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Disney owns 20th Century Studios

Yep you are right, that's part of the fox aquisition that they overpaid for. I stand corrected.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Thank you. That makes a much better argument than just saying he needs to go.

Namaste.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

I will never forget Covid. I am an attorney for a governmental body. Every day I parsed Covid numbers, attended meetings and prepared legal documents to assist our public health department. When many, many folks were laid-off or worked from home, I came to the office every single day. I'm thankful I didn't lose my job and had an office to be at every day. I have family and friends who lost jobs or had their lives completely upended because of Covid. TWDC should be very thankful and blessed that the State of Florida allowed WDW to reopen as soon as it did.

I truly wonder how grateful the executives at TWDC are that WDW was allowed to reopen. Florida allowing TWDC to reopen WDW may have saved the company from complete financial ruin. After all, TWDC had so many other avenues to make money during Covid.

So thankful that they immediately started a political fight with the governor it seems.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

I don't believe Avatar is fully owned by Disney. They purchase the rights to distribute it.

Is Avatar 2 made by Disney?

Avatar: The Way of Water is an epic science fiction film written and directed by James Cameron, produced by 20th Century Studios, and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. It's the direct sequel to Avatar and it was released on December 16, 2022

Avatar 2 was also a late 2022 release, so I am not sure it that was 2022 bottom line or 2023? Maybe some in both?

 

[BrianL]

Avatar 2 was also a late 2022 release, so I am not sure it that was 2022 bottom line or 2023? Maybe some in both?

Fiscal years tend to run differently than the calendar year. Disney ends a fiscal year in late September.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

https://boundingintocomics.com/2023...0-million-at-the-box-office-in-the-past-year/

No clue if this is 100% accurate, but I do find it pretty detailed and interesting, nonetheless.

 

[clarker99]

Gotcha, yeah I misunderstood what was being said. My mistake.

It still seems to me people don't understand box office gross is important, but production budget is equally important to profitability. Also the number of people that don't understand from box office haul Disney only gets (55% Domestic, 45% International, 25% China). I think people just blindly assume these companies make hundreds of billions of dollars off of even bad movies, and this is simply not the case.

There have only been two really big financial winning movies in 2023 and they were Super Mario and Top Gun Maverick.

Top Gun was 2022.

Saying "its fine", and then failing to omit that they dropped at least 200 million plus marketing spend (that is estimated at 50 to 100 million) to spend the movie because they made 475 million while ALSO omitting that they only get at best half of that back to them as money is pretty dishonest.

Movie theatres dont show movies for free. The highest ever cut Disney ever got was 65 for Last Jedi. They dont get that anymore. Also overseas they take lesser cuts. Way less.

But going by my low estimate of their marketing spend of 50 million. They lost money on Ant Man.

Thor Love and Thunder cost 250 million, it had a good ad blitz, probably 100 million. 350 is reasonable to assume. It made 760. Half of that is 375 was taken back. It made like 25 million in profit. When the company owes tens of billions. Thats ignoring opportunity costs. Thats ignoring the rumor that they spent way more than 100 million on ad spend on it too.

Disney is also losing money on licensing the properties out to Netflix, another revenue stream cut.

My point is that the Marvel brand is fine. People are spending to go see Marvel movies. No other Studio can come close to the box office draw and Marvel does it 3 times a year. The licensing deal is a huge problem and is bearing out in the financials. TV/SVOD was a $3.5B-$4.5B revenue maker for years. DIS+ has had unintended consequences and most are affecting the Studios bottom line far more so than Linear.

TV and ESPN viewership and ad money.

DIS ad rev:
2017: $8.1B
2018: $7.7B
2019: $7B
2020: $6.3B
2021: $8.8B
2022: $9.1B
2023: parsed out of the historical % of ad rev vs. affiliate fees revenue and the 6month FY23 report from the last earnings call I think you are in the $8-9B range.

Linear is holding its own, while MDED (now known as Content Sales and Licensing and is where Studios report earnings) is barely treading water over the last 3 fiscal years.

 

[BrianL]

Top Gun was 2022.

My point is that the Marvel brand is fine. People are spending to go see Marvel movies. No other Studio can come close to the box office draw and Marvel does it 3 times a year. The licensing deal is a huge problem and is bearing out in the financials. TV/SVOD was a $3.5B-$4.5B revenue maker for years. DIS+ has had unintended consequences and most are affecting the Studios bottom line far more so than Linear.


DIS ad rev:
2017: $8.1B
2018: $7.7B
2019: $7B
2020: $6.3B
2021: $8.8B
2022: $9.1B
2023: parsed out of the historical % of ad rev vs. affiliate fees revenue and the 6month FY23 report from the last earnings call I think you are in the $8-9B range.

Linear is holding its own, while MDED (now known as Content Sales and Licensing and is where Studios report earnings) is barely treading water over the last 3 fiscal years.

Yes, it is a good point that streaming canibalized sales and lisencing for liner TV, a place where traditionally a TON of a movie's money was made. Lisencing to stations liek TNT/USA, or airing on their own channels, Disney taught consumers to look at a rock-bottom priced streaming service first.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Will we see Disney starting to license more movies out to unrelated stations to drive up sales after a theatrical release?

Also how does it work in a case like avatar 2? James Cameron's production company spends all the production cost and then Disney buys the movie from him to distribute? Not sure how this works.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Yes, it is a good point that streaming canibalized sales and lisencing for liner TV, a place where traditionally a TON of a movie's money was made. Lisencing to stations liek TNT/USA, or airing on their own channels, Disney taught consumers to look at a rock-bottom priced streaming service first.

Also exacerbated by the fact that Disney+ is still losing a good chunk of money each quarter currently. Should get better when Disney+ turns the corner and starts to make a profit.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

https://boundingintocomics.com/2023...0-million-at-the-box-office-in-the-past-year/

No clue if this is 100% accurate, but I do find it pretty detailed and interesting, nonetheless.

Is this Valiante Renegade guy reputable?

 

[clarker99]

Will we see Disney starting to license more movies out to unrelated stations to drive up sales after a theatrical release?

As per the last earnings call, Iger said they would be licensing out content again. He was not specific on what IP's. It is an important change that should help 'Content Sales and Licensing' back into the black.

 

[BrianL]

Will we see Disney starting to license more movies out to unrelated stations to drive up sales after a theatrical release?

Also how does it work in a case like avatar 2? James Cameron's production company spends all the production cost and then Disney buys the movie from him to distribute? Not sure how this works.

It's more like a partnership, but Disney is likely fronting the costs. An outfit like Lightstorm is basically a company that Disney "hires" to make a movie. Sometimes those companies are exclusive with a big studio, and may even keep offices on their lot. Lightstorm and Fox had a long history together. You might see the same of Legendary, who was with Warner Bros. for a long time, but are no longer exclusive. Still, the studio provides the money and reaps most of the reward.

It is possible though that James Cameron is a special case because he actually HAS the money to make his own pictures, but why spend your own money when you can spend someone elses? George Lucas on the other hand, after A New Hope, basically self-financed his pictures, allowing Fox to retain distribution. He did that because he wanted the elusive, "No Notes," clause - basically saying that nobody can have input on the final product. When it's studio money you have to play ball. When you're George Lucas, you own the ball, and the field, and the concession stand too!

 

[BrianL]

Is this Valiante Renegade guy reputable?

Honestly, that's not a website that is held in high regardby, well, a certian segmentt of the fandom, though likely the segment you mostly disagree with. Not to get into it, but they definitely have a POV.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

As per the last earnings call, Iger said they would be licensing out content again. He was not specific on what IP's. It is an important change that should help 'Content Sales and Licensing' back into the black.

I see that as potentially a really good development for returning to profitability.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Honestly, that's not a website that is held in high regardby, well, a certian segmentt of the fandom, though likely the segment you mostly disagree with. Not to get into it, but they definitely have a POV.

Got ya, I just hadn't run into his stuff before. That's what makes it so hard to evaluate this stuff. 50 different sites give 50 different sets of numbers, hard to know who the heck to trust!

 

[BrianL]

Got ya, I just hadn't run into his stuff before. That's what makes it so hard to evaluate this stuff. 50 different sites give 50 different sets of numbers, hard to know who the heck to trust!

Well, numbers should be facts - but there is so much that can be inferred from them. Often people see what they want to see. Keep in mind, that the whole picture is more complicated, even when it comes to how movies make profit.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Well, numbers should be facts - but there is so much that can be inferred from them. Often people see what they want to see. Keep in mind, that the whole picture is more complicated, even when it comes to how movies make profit.

Exacerbated by the fact that the studios don't really want anyone to know what they make on a movie anyway. For example, you often see a movie with a $200M production budget but they change directors and do 6 months of reshoots, and still the $200 million figure doesn't change. I am inclined to believe the studios are not in the habit of being 100% honest when it comes to these "published" numbers.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Well, numbers should be facts - but there is so much that can be inferred from them. Often people see what they want to see. Keep in mind, that the whole picture is more complicated, even when it comes to how movies make profit.

Well numbers technically are facts, people just lie about the numbers often. Or just don't report anything. Then other people make assumptions, and you no what happens when you start assuming.