DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[TiggerBouncy]

There's a lot to unpack here haha.

Your first paragraph is again just speculation with nothing to back it but your personal opinion.

I would say that stock price is partially reflective in consumer confidence in the company, and also reflective on the market as a whole, there are a lot more factors that drive stock prices then consumer confidence a lone. I think the stock price combined with other metrics would give you a better picture. (God knows, so many consumers had a ton of confidence in Game stop.)

Your forgot to mention that Disney missed their earnings in November by a large margin, once again not much to do with the consumer confidence, since the next time Disney released earnings, their stock took a pretty sizeable leap.

I think you are cherry picking to sell your opinion which is totally fine, it just doesn't seem to be rooted in reality

Just so I am clear then, it is your opinion that Disney is doing just great, their stock is reflective of the overall market, they have done nothing wrong, have a firm grip on their customer base, their brand is as strong as ever (except a few firebrands) and has absolutely nothing to change?

Like you really believe that upsetting your customer base has zero effect on company growth? Or your contention is that in fact no one is really upset in their base except for a few articles and media who wants to cast them in a bad light?

PLEASE tell me you are a marketing director or CEO.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Interesting article about why Disney is in this hot mess and now in a culture war - it really does boil down to Mucha leaving more than anything else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/business/zenia-mucha-disney-retirement.html

"Ms. Mucha — who has been variously described during her career in politics and at Disney as “warrior princess,” “razor-sharp and acid-tongued,” “mother crocodile” and “director of revenge” — has influence at Disney that extends far beyond her official duties. As other C-suite executives have cycled through the company over the decades, Ms. Mucha has endured to become leadership team bedrock, giving her a voice in nearly every major corporate decision. In 2016, for instance, when Disney was thinking about buying Twitter, she was against it. (Too much porn, she cautioned.) Mr. Iger passed, later citing the platform’s “nastiness.”

Lately, Ms. Mucha’s job has taken on a difficult new dimension. Disney’s family-friendly brand is meant to be for everyone. But neutrality in today’s hyperpartisan world is almost impossible. Many employees and customers want and expect companies like Disney to be advocates for progressive issues. Another faction is just as adamant that Mickey Mouse and Buzz Lightyear steer clear of politics and hot-button cultural topics.

Walking that line — while protecting Disney at all costs — has forced Ms. Mucha to make decisions that have, more and more, cast her as a villain. Disney, for instance, did not comment in April when Hollywood stars and some other media companies publicly condemned Georgia Republicans for passing a law to restrict voting access. For Disney in that moment, she determined that the negatives of commenting outweighed the positives. In other instances, she has made the opposite call, adding Disney’s voice in support of issues such as L.G.B.T.Q. rights and racial justice."

Although the outcome may have been the same in terms of Disney supporting the L.G.B.T.Q. community, you can bet she would have navigated the waters differently - and likely WITHOUT upsetting the customer base nearly as much.

Yes. She was the counter-weight to Latondra Newton. Now there isn't one.

 

[DeeBee3]

DOW down a 1,000 today...

 

[RivShore]

So on this big down day, I saw this headline and thought, wow DIS is up today...then I realized I completely misread it...

Disney shares peek​

at latest vision for Epcot theme park

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando...y-epcot-transformation-orlando.html?ana=yahoo

 

[RivShore]

Really interesting article in the NY Post last week about the Disney family and the company's history with p....since it's all about the p word I am reluctant to link it here but this quote is relevant to the recent discussion...somehow the company and their PR department lost this wisdom...

“Mickey Mouse is not a Republican or a Democrat,” said Joe Shapiro, who headed up Disney’s political lobbying, in an interview with CNN in 1998. “If you take a strong position either way, you are looking at offending roughly half of the people.”

 

[JaxDad]

Really interesting article in the NY Post last week about the Disney family and the company's history with p....since it's all about the p word I am reluctant to link it here but this quote is relevant to the recent discussion...somehow the company and their PR department lost this wisdom...

“Mickey Mouse is not a Republican or a Democrat,” said Joe Shapiro, who headed up Disney’s political lobbying, in an interview with CNN in 1998. “If you take a strong position either way, you are looking at offending roughly half of the people.”

Or as Michael Jordan said when pressed to support a Democrat candidate in the 90s, "Republicans buy sneakers, too.”

 

[jimmytammy]

Or as Michael Jordan said when pressed to support a Democrat candidate in the 90s, "Republicans buy sneakers, too.”

Edit: My apologies to the original poster as I didnt read the original post, therefore, I based my wording here off of the most recent postings on the last page. I do post here as a longtime holder of Disney stock, but I agree with another post just below the original post, not sure how we can discuss disney stock dropping without the elephant in the room. I hope my post below will not cause this thread to close, but Im just writing from how I see things based on their views in the current state of affairs.

MJ was smart enough to know as a businessman to not separate himself from others. As a family business owner, my Dad being the one who started it, always separated himself from supporting politicians on either side by not endorsing with signs in the yard, stickers on cars, etc. Most people who knew him knew which side he was on, same for me. I adopted to that idea too, to not exclude myself by being so staunch in my views. Better to keep em guessing I say than to be so blatant on your views. We have built homes for all kinds of people, their lifestyle choices being all over the place. My place was to build them a house as they wanted it, not to share my opinion on how they should live their lives. None of my business! Disney, as a business, IMO, should have stayed out of FL govt affairs. As a shareholder of Disney stock for over 20 plus years(had it so long I remember it being down to $6 mark)I wish they would mind their own business affairs and let others do the same. Time will heal the wounds and hopefully Disney will learn a lesson. Im not defending Gov. Ron DeSantis' and FL govt take either. He/they retaliated and now its biting them in the rear as well. Now children, lets all play nice and try to get along

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Just so I am clear then, it is your opinion that Disney is doing just great, their stock is reflective of the overall market, they have done nothing wrong, have a firm grip on their customer base, their brand is as strong as ever (except a few firebrands) and has absolutely nothing to change?

Like you really believe that upsetting your customer base has zero effect on company growth? Or your contention is that in fact no one is really upset in their base except for a few articles and media who wants to cast them in a bad light?

PLEASE tell me you are a marketing director or CEO.

What i have been attempting to say is that you are pitching your opinion as fact, when you have nothing of note to back up your assertions. I haven't given my opinion, and if i do i always spell it out as an opinion

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I am 'pitching' nothing. Despite what the schools may try to teach, objectivity is the worlds most best kept lie. Everything you read is opinion regardless of the source of how they pitch it. I don't start off every sentence I say as "this is my opinion" for the same reason I don't start off every post as "this is a post on an internet forum". If you are reading, you can automatically assume it's an opinion. Even so called 'facts' such as the numbers are opinions because people select the numbers that will reflect the story they are trying to tell. That's true whether it's on a forum or the most so called objective news source in the world - it's a lie. You can not have pure objectivity. So I am not sure what you are pointing out. Did you read something? The only fact that you read is an opinion.

But, you are either:
1. disagreeing with the assertion that offending your customers is going to affect your business
or
2. disagreeing with the assertion that Disney has offended a portion of it's customers
or
3. arguing for the sake of arguing

If it's 1, I would love to hear your argument because although not a fact, it's a widely held and generally accepted opinion in most marketing areas.
If 2, then you are generally agreeing to the above opinion that I asked if you believe in which case I would love to hear your underlying reasons for that opinion
and if 3, you're a troll.

Since I am pretty sure it's not 1, and I don't see how 2 is defensible, I have to assume it's 3. Thank you for your troll post.

I agree that most numbers can be spun, but that doesn’t make them an opinion, most people take numbers at face value. It’s why earnings drive a companies stock price. I’m not a troll, we just don’t agree

 

[RivShore]

1. disagreeing with the assertion that offending your customers is going to affect your business

I think the reality will end up being, yes there's an impact but it's just not much.

Yes, they have potentially ticked off half the US but not everyone pays attention to the politics of the day or Disney news like we all do. Heck, Fox News (the most popular news network in the country) has about 2M viewers - less than one percent of the US population. Even if you double or triple that with similar news sites and networks and social media, it's still a tiny sliver of the population. Now take that tiny sliver and look at the age group that would be prime Disney consumers and it's a tiny sliver of that tiny sliver. Then assume more than half of that sliver will complain about it but not vote with their pocketbook, and your left with very little impact. And also don't forget that 20%+ of WDW visitors are international and probably don't care or know about any of this.

As I said in the other thread (and hopefully this one doesn't end up in the same grave at the Haunted Mansion), these things usually have a very short self life, the activists on both sides would have certainly moved onto other things by now...like a certain leak that is all over the news now. If Chapek had held to his first instinct of say nothing, the company might have weathered that storm but of course now there is a new storm on the horizon and there will be pressure to say something again, it will be interesting to see how this one plays out with some new blood in the PR area and the experience they just lived thru.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I agree that most numbers can be spun, but that doesn’t make them an opinion, most people take numbers at face value. It’s why earnings drive a companies stock price. I’m not a troll, we just don’t agree

Many numbers themselves are not in and of themselves an opinion, but which numbers you choose to report, when you report on them and why - those are the opinions.

Removing from numbers, but to prove an example. "The sun came up this morning". Fact? Technically, not really - the portion of the earth you happen to be occupying spun in such a way that it presented a greater portion of itself towards the sun. But more basic than that -WHY did you say the sun came up? Why not report that the moon went down? Why are you talking about the sun at all and not some other piece of news?

Everything you say is an opinion at it's heart - or at least serves the purpose of presenting a story you wish to tell which at it's heart is your opinionated view of the greater world.

Yes, they have potentially ticked off half the US but not everyone pays attention to the politics of the day or Disney news like we all do. Heck, Fox News (the most popular news network in the country) has about 2M viewers - less than one percent of the US population. Even if you double or triple that with similar news sites and networks and social media, it's still a tiny sliver of the population. Now take that tiny sliver and look at the age group that would be prime Disney consumers and it's a tiny sliver of that tiny sliver. Then assume more than half of that sliver will complain about it but not vote with their pocketbook, and your left with very little impact. And also don't forget that 20%+ of WDW visitors are international and probably don't care or know about any of this.

Well, you make a good point that Disney is an international company - I am looking at this as more than just WDW and to TWDC as a whole because the stock, company value and my personal interest in Disney is not limited to just one park. But, from a global standpoint, this particular fight is rather limited in scope - that is true enough.

But I would not be so quick to dismiss the scope of an argument as non-global. I hold up as exhibit A Mulan - in which Liu Yifei's public statements were widely considered as one of the primary reasons for the flop - and that was just one actress in one movie having global consequences. I have to believe that Chapek makes an even greater impact; and I am talking even bigger. I am talking the moves, stories, statements, and examples set by an entire global franchise playing out over the course of multiple years.

I do not believe that a single incident in Florida is going to crack Disney, nor am I advocating that is what has and is happening. I am saying that a larger scope push by he company to lean too far toward a single cultural perspective is going to drive away a large percentage of their base on the other side. If Disney wants to truly remain a place for everyone, they have to tread a careful route because what they are becoming is a place for one side at the expense of the other.

Now a reasonable argument could be made that it's not possible to be a place for everyone in todays society - we have just gotten too polarized. I am not sure I disagree with that argument. However, I would argue that until November, 2021 they had done a particularly decent job of it under Mucha and my statements are that Disney has lost that connection with the conservative half of their base. They have also pissed off the liberal half of their base. In short, they are not winning either side.

I am arguing that terrible unneeded public statement against a Hollywood Actress with many followers does not bring over customers.

I am arguing that bad messaging in general over the 50th at WDW, and Genie+ in particular has left guests seething.

I am arguing that internal leaked documents that represent a bad internal side of Disney toward some societal aspects without any public statement from the company generates bad reports.

I am arguing that these are just A FEW EXAMPLES of a larger problem the company is facing and that put together, these all take a nasty bite out of the value of the brand and THAT affects sales - not just in WDW, but the entire Disney franchise and put together with all the movies and parks and entertainment that the giant produces will have a significant impact globally.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

What i have been attempting to say is that you are pitching your opinion as fact

Also, in fairness my first post on the subject actually said....

In my opinion, the FIRST thing Disney has to do is get back consumer confidence.

 

[OKW Lover]

Hoping that some of us can dial back the rhetoric. Yes, everybody has their opinion. I'm happy to read it. I may, or may not, agree with it. I'm always interested in opinions and the "facts" they are based on.

But please, don't attack somebody's opposing opinion. Fighting like that will get this thread locked. We had been doing well so far....

 

[RivShore]

I hold up as exhibit A Mulan - in which Liu Yifei's public statements were widely considered as one of the primary reasons for the flop - and that was just one actress in one movie having global consequences.

First of all, I completely forgot what she said so that goes to prove my short self life comment (or maybe it just proves my short attention span ). Seriously had to look it up to refresh my memory.

Couldn't the flop just as easily be blamed on the movie not being so great? Couldn't the flop be blamed on releasing during Covid? Can you give us some details on why you think it was solely due to a boycott becuase of what the actress said?

 

[RivShore]

I am arguing that terrible unneeded public statement against a Hollywood Actress with many followers does not bring over customers.

I am arguing that bad messaging in general over the 50th at WDW, and Genie+ in particular has left guests seething.

I am arguing that internal leaked documents that represent a bad internal side of Disney toward some societal aspects without any public statement from the company generates bad reports.

Agree on all counts and if it continues with one thing after another after another it could begin to impact the bottom line. Chapek just doesn't appear to be the people person the CEO of this company needs to be and has been for many years. Could you imagine him hosting the Sunday night show like Eisner and Walt did? That I would boycott!!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

If you're a liberal you see things one way. If you're a conservative another. Disney apologists only see through rose colored lenses. Realists see how different things are now as compared to years gone by and tend to be unhappy about change in general.

One FACT is that we can all try our best to convince the other side to see what we see and there's a snowball's chance in hell of getting them to change their opinion. It's why I personally think we're all screwed in this country because we've all become excellent at not only not listening to the other side but doubling down on our opinions when we are challenged in the least bit or when we feel a hint of a thought of possibly being wrong.

Last thread I gave plenty of direct comparisons to blue chip stocks which I think is really what you have to compare Disney to. But if others want to compare it to some other peer group go right ahead. In my OPINION (even though it is technically backed up by numbers), that Disney stock has been a laggard and a poor LONG TERM HOLD when compared to many other stocks that one could've bought years ago (insert time range x here). But we can all cherry pick I guess so there are I'm sure plenty of examples where you can say it has done better than so and so...like Enron. Ok Ok I had to sorry...

I will say ANECDOTALLY but also by reading many Disney and stock based message boards I agree with Tigger that many have been turned off by the brand and perhaps we will see these effects sooner or later. Or perhaps it all really is a nothing burger. I will say this, for any chance to salvage it's political reputation with conservatives or just regular families not into what they're saying then all of this has to stop immediately. Meaning keep it all in house and behind closed doors. Do what you want with inclusivity or what have you, but stop making it a public spectacle. Disney cannot keep going down the political theater route. And the recent silence seems to indicate perhaps the message has been received...just run your business without spreading your business.

 

[OKW Lover]

I wonder if we can agree that now is a good time to be buying stocks? The market as a whole is down significantly. It may even go lower. But at some point its going to recover and if you are investing for the long run it pays off to buy low.

Now the decision as to which stock to buy now (DIS or something else) is something that we will probably not all agree with.

 

[RivShore]

keep it all in house and behind closed doors. Do what you want with inclusivity or what have you, but stop making it a public spectacle. Disney cannot keep going down the political theater route. And the recent silence seems to indicate perhaps the message has been received...just run your business without spreading your business.

Agree a thousand percent with this. Trouble is social media and the loudest activists (on all sides) along with the whole ESG movement on Wall St. itself force companies into the town square to proclaim their "righteousness" to the world of tiktok. A very odd place in history we find ourselves in.

 

[CalOilerGurl]

It's fairly new news. People are not largely going to go and cancel their currently paid for and funded trips over news that happened recently. Likewise, streaming services are paid for some time in advance the question is whether they renew.

All I can say for certain is that leaders of people - church ministers, elected representatives, even hollywood right now is irritated with Disney. These are the people who tend to be influencers. If you do not believe that will hit their bottom line - that people who need to make cuts to their budgets will not choose Disney over something that is more in line with the entertainment they trust and/or will choose to spend their vacation dollars bringing their family to places they believe will be fun for them over someplace they do not trust in, then as I said, there is no convincing the person standing in a puddle that water is wet if they are bound and determined not to face reality.

I CAN say that the stock price is reflective of investors confidence in the company. That is in fact pretty much exactly what the stock price IS. And Disney is BY FACT the worst performing stock in the dow.

Lets talk about the stocks you mention. Yes, Sony is down almost as much. But sony has had a STEADY DECLINE over the past year...
View attachment 667135
WBD steady decline
View attachment 667136
Paramount is actually not doing that bad... They just took a recent hit after their miserable streaming numbers.
View attachment 667137

Disney's erosion is a very different graph...
View attachment 667138
it was holding steady right up until November. In fact as recently as October, they were anticipated to hit $200.

November 2021..... hmmmm.. why does that date sound familiar to me? What happened around November. Well, that's when D23 happened and Bob wasn't there. Wasn't he in a war of words and unnecessary lawsuit with SJ? And lets see.... wasn't there a petition to remove him? And didn't they get a big hit over G+ with no good answer or announcements about it (just really terrible messaging)? Around that time didn't the investors get concerned about D+ numbers (slower than expected)? Hmmm. wasn't that the time Iger left the chairman post?

Oh wait.... that's about the time that Morrell took over Disney's messaging as well. Mucha used to be very careful to protect the brand at all costs.

Sorry.... I just do not compare the massive hits of bad news with Disney and the miserable stock performance with the same lens as Sony, Paramount, or WB. Bottom line is that Disney stock was holding it's own right up until their messaging fell flat on it's face.

Disney has lost it's connection with it's customers. Bottom line. Whether it's culture, park experience, company direction, or just really bad messaging, the confidence in Disney is at an all time low. To recover, they need to get it back.

Excellent Analysis!

 

[Jrb1979]

IMO the way Disney has been treating their guests has a lot more to do with the pushback then the political stuff.