DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[Aluminum Falcon]

Click-bait aside, being a Disney enthusiast and a Conservative, I PERSONALLY KNOW about 40-50% of my friends who go to Disney are talking about cutting back their trips and/or cancelling them altogether.

The Disney+ subscription numbers are down.

The stock has taken a hit (again, more than JUST THE MARKET would dictate).

Conservatives listen to elected representatives, and right now those representatives are on an all our culture war with Disney.

If you do not believe that any of this is having an effect on the brand, then I don't know what I could possibly tell a person standing in a puddle that water is wet.

That is all anecdotal, where have you seen that Disney+ Subs are dropping? can you quantify how the stock has dropped more than their contemporaries? Do you have any raw data showing that the "culture war" is affecting Disneys bottom line? Without any actual information, it is all just personal opinion

 

[Jrb1979]

While the PR has taken a hit, I personally don't think the political stuff has had much effect on them. IMO it's the cost and all the added upcharges Disney has brought on board that has done the most damage.

Families with littles will always go to Disney as there is more they can do there. Where I think they will lose is the older families. I know for my sister's family, my nieces who are 11 and 12 no longer like Disney as the rides don't do much for them anymore.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

can you quantify how the stock has dropped more than their contemporaries?

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

While the PR has taken a hit, I personally don't think the political stuff has had much effect on them. IMO it's the cost and all the added upcharges Disney has brought on board that has done the most damage.

Families with littles will always go to Disney as there is more they can do there. Where I think they will lose is the older families. I know for my sister's family, my nieces who are 11 and 12 no longer like Disney as the rides don't do much for them anymore.

I don't want to sound rude here, but can anyone show me the damages? People keep saying Disney is wounded with nothing more than personal opinion to back them up.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Families with littles will always go to Disney as there is more they can do there. Where I think they will lose is the older families. I know for my sister's family, my nieces who are 11 and 12 no longer like Disney as the rides don't do much for them anymore.

That's not new. "Kids love Disney until they become tweens and teens and think they're too cool for it" was true even when the stock was performing.

 

[Medlen1016]

Thanks for starting this up hhisc16, I was about to do the same!

One of the moderators told me that a few posts were borderline and that is why we got shutdown.

Please keep any politics out of here so we can talk business and only business.

Wow

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I don't want to sound rude here, but can anyone show me the damages? People keep saying Disney is wounded with nothing more than personal opinion to back them up.

Disney's stock is down badly. There's absolutely no disputing that. Attributing a REASON to the skid is where all of the speculation comes in, but you can't deny that it's happening.

(Spoiler alert: It has nothing to do with the Parks business or political controversy whatsoever. Netflix has investors spooked that Streaming is a bubble primed to burst.)

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

View attachment 667129

Try comparing them to these stocks, CMCSA. SONY, WBD, & PARA, who in my opinion are their contemporaries. it's pretty close across the board. There isn't enough movement to say Disney is clearly being affected by a culture war

 

[middlechild]

Some of the recent changes will take a long time to show up. Removing RCID for example will increase the cost of borrowing for infrastructure projects in WDW. They can still build new extensions of Sky Liner, but funding will take business bonding and not municipal bonding. Perhaps then the effects will be only a slowing of growth, with multiple causes including changing demographics eroding the core customer base.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

There isn't enough movement to say Disney is clearly being affected by a culture war

Correct. Disney shot themselves in the foot by putting all of their media eggs into the streaming basket instead of fighting to fix the cable bundle and theatrical distribution. They decided that Subs were more important than Profitability because they wanted a Netflix multiple. Oops.

 

[Jrb1979]

I don't want to sound rude here, but can anyone show me the damages? People keep saying Disney is wounded with nothing more than personal opinion to back them up.

I know a lot of its anecdotal but judging from the amount of threads from former Disney loyalists on going to Universal instead. Look at all the threads from Disney fans just here that are done with the parks.

Yes the parks a packed right now but a lot of that is still people making for cancelled vacations. IMO we haven't seen the full effects of the changes.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Disney's stock is down badly. There's absolutely no disputing that. Attributing a REASON to the skid is where all of the speculation comes in, but you can't deny that it's happening.

(Spoiler alert: It has nothing to do with the Parks business or political controversy whatsoever. Netflix has investors spooked that Streaming is a bubble primed to burst.)

On that, we can agree

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Some of the recent changes will take a long time to show up. Removing RCID for example will increase the cost of borrowing for infrastructure projects in WDW. They can still build new extensions of Sky Liner, but funding will take business bonding and not municipal bonding. Perhaps then the effects will be only a slowing of growth, with multiple causes including changing demographics eroding the core customer base.

My guess with RCID is that the counties the WDW falls into will make a new "RCID" which the state would have no control over. Speculation, but seems like the path of least resistance, i think that is also why Disney hasn't filed a law suit

 

[CaptainAmerica]

My guess with RCID is that the counties the WDW falls into will make a new "RCID" which the state would have no control over. Speculation, but seems like the path of least resistance, i think that is also why Disney hasn't filed a law suit

Yeah the idea that RCID is just a rubber stamp for Disney to do whatever they want but Orange County puts intense rigor and scrutiny into everything Universal tries to do both understates the standards that Disney currently complies with and overstates the adversarial relationship between Orange County and Universal.

Disney is going to do approximately what they've always done, and pay approximately what they've always paid. There will just be a few documents with different letterhead.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Try comparing them to these stocks, CMCSA. SONY, WBD, & PARA, who in my opinion are their contemporaries. it's pretty close across the board. There isn't enough movement to say Disney is clearly being affected by a culture war

It's fairly new news. People are not largely going to go and cancel their currently paid for and funded trips over news that happened recently. Likewise, streaming services are paid for some time in advance the question is whether they renew.

All I can say for certain is that leaders of people - church ministers, elected representatives, even hollywood right now is irritated with Disney. These are the people who tend to be influencers. If you do not believe that will hit their bottom line - that people who need to make cuts to their budgets will not choose Disney over something that is more in line with the entertainment they trust and/or will choose to spend their vacation dollars bringing their family to places they believe will be fun for them over someplace they do not trust in, then as I said, there is no convincing the person standing in a puddle that water is wet if they are bound and determined not to face reality.

I CAN say that the stock price is reflective of investors confidence in the company. That is in fact pretty much exactly what the stock price IS. And Disney is BY FACT the worst performing stock in the dow.

Lets talk about the stocks you mention. Yes, Sony is down almost as much. But sony has had a STEADY DECLINE over the past year...

WBD steady decline

Paramount is actually not doing that bad... They just took a recent hit after their miserable streaming numbers.


Disney's erosion is a very different graph...

it was holding steady right up until November. In fact as recently as October, they were anticipated to hit $200.

November 2021..... hmmmm.. why does that date sound familiar to me? What happened around November. Well, that's when D23 happened and Bob wasn't there. Wasn't he in a war of words and unnecessary lawsuit with SJ? And lets see.... wasn't there a petition to remove him? And didn't they get a big hit over G+ with no good answer or announcements about it (just really terrible messaging)? Around that time didn't the investors get concerned about D+ numbers (slower than expected)? Hmmm. wasn't that the time Iger left the chairman post?

Oh wait.... that's about the time that Morrell took over Disney's messaging as well. Mucha used to be very careful to protect the brand at all costs.

Sorry.... I just do not compare the massive hits of bad news with Disney and the miserable stock performance with the same lens as Sony, Paramount, or WB. Bottom line is that Disney stock was holding it's own right up until their messaging fell flat on it's face.

Disney has lost it's connection with it's customers. Bottom line. Whether it's culture, park experience, company direction, or just really bad messaging, the confidence in Disney is at an all time low. To recover, they need to get it back.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

My guess with RCID is that the counties the WDW falls into will make a new "RCID" which the state would have no control over. Speculation, but seems like the path of least resistance, i think that is also why Disney hasn't filed a law suit

RCID is much ado about nothing. There is even an escape clause. My dime is that there is a new RCID (maybe the local level as you mention, but I would not be shocked if it's at the state level). Disney will "fix" it's relationship with the state - whether that requires Bobby to leave I don't know. So far Disney has been behaving itself by just shutting up. If they keep it up, a new RCID will be negotiated that will be a little refreshed given that Disney's business model has changed and it will reflect their current model.

But even if RCID goes asway completely, it's just.... not a big deal. Other companies manage to live under local county regs. Disney can too.

The big deal here is that Disney is getting all kinds of negative press that they don't need.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It's fairly new news. People are not largely going to go and cancel their currently paid for and funded trips over news that happened recently. Likewise, streaming services are paid for some time in advance the question is whether they renew.

All I can say for certain is that leaders of people - church ministers, elected representatives, even hollywood right now is irritated with Disney. These are the people who tend to be influencers. If you do not believe that will hit their bottom line - that people who need to make cuts to their budgets will not choose Disney over something that is more in line with the entertainment they trust and/or will choose to spend their vacation dollars bringing their family to places they believe will be fun for them over someplace they do not trust in, then as I said, there is no convincing the person standing in a puddle that water is wet if they are bound and determined not to face reality.

I CAN say that the stock price is reflective of investors confidence in the company. That is in fact pretty much exactly what the stock price IS. And Disney is BY FACT the worst performing stock in the dow.

Lets talk about the stocks you mention. Yes, Sony is down almost as much. But sony has had a STEADY DECLINE over the past year...
View attachment 667135
WBD steady decline
View attachment 667136
Paramount is actually not doing that bad... They just took a recent hit after their miserable streaming numbers.
View attachment 667137

Disney's erosion is a very different graph...
View attachment 667138
it was holding steady right up until November. In fact as recently as October, they were anticipated to hit $200.

November 2021..... hmmmm.. why does that date sound familiar to me? What happened around November. Well, that's when D23 happened and Bob wasn't there. Wasn't he in a war of words and unnecessary lawsuit with SJ? And lets see.... wasn't there a petition to remove him? And didn't they get a big hit over G+ with no good answer or announcements about it (just really terrible messaging)? Around that time didn't the investors get concerned about D+ numbers (slower than expected)? Hmmm. wasn't that the time Iger left the chairman post?

Oh wait.... that's about the time that Morrell took over Disney's messaging as well. Mucha used to be very careful to protect the brand at all costs.

Sorry.... I just do not compare the massive hits of bad news with Disney and the miserable stock performance with the same lens as Sony, Paramount, or WB. Bottom line is that Disney stock was holding it's own right up until their messaging fell flat on it's face.

Disney has lost it's connection with it's customers. Bottom line. Whether it's culture, park experience, company direction, or just really bad messaging, the confidence in Disney is at an all time low. To recover, they need to get it back.

I contend that Morrell never took over communication, no matter what his title was.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I contend that Morrell never took over communication, no matter what his title was.

Well, he certainly didn't take it over in that he never had ownership of it, if that's what you mean.

All I can say for certain is that their messaging took a turn for the worse when Mucha left. Mucha has been in charge for 20 years and run a very tight ship and controlled Disney's messaging very well. Disney generally managed to steer clear of a lot of potential PR nightmares under her rein. Even when they did get in stormy weather, she always found a way out.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

It's fairly new news. People are not largely going to go and cancel their currently paid for and funded trips over news that happened recently. Likewise, streaming services are paid for some time in advance the question is whether they renew.

All I can say for certain is that leaders of people - church ministers, elected representatives, even hollywood right now is irritated with Disney. These are the people who tend to be influencers. If you do not believe that will hit their bottom line - that people who need to make cuts to their budgets will not choose Disney over something that is more in line with the entertainment they trust and/or will choose to spend their vacation dollars bringing their family to places they believe will be fun for them over someplace they do not trust in, then as I said, there is no convincing the person standing in a puddle that water is wet if they are bound and determined not to face reality.

I CAN say that the stock price is reflective of investors confidence in the company. That is in fact pretty much exactly what the stock price IS. And Disney is BY FACT the worst performing stock in the dow.

Lets talk about the stocks you mention. Yes, Sony is down almost as much. But sony has had a STEADY DECLINE over the past year...
View attachment 667135
WBD steady decline
View attachment 667136
Paramount is actually not doing that bad... They just took a recent hit after their miserable streaming numbers.
View attachment 667137

Disney's erosion is a very different graph...
View attachment 667138
it was holding steady right up until November. In fact as recently as October, they were anticipated to hit $200.

November 2021..... hmmmm.. why does that date sound familiar to me? What happened around November. Well, that's when D23 happened and Bob wasn't there. Wasn't he in a war of words and unnecessary lawsuit with SJ? And lets see.... wasn't there a petition to remove him? And didn't they get a big hit over G+ with no good answer or announcements about it (just really terrible messaging)? Around that time didn't the investors get concerned about D+ numbers (slower than expected)? Hmmm. wasn't that the time Iger left the chairman post?

Oh wait.... that's about the time that Morrell took over Disney's messaging as well. Mucha used to be very careful to protect the brand at all costs.

Sorry.... I just do not compare the massive hits of bad news with Disney and the miserable stock performance with the same lens as Sony, Paramount, or WB. Bottom line is that Disney stock was holding it's own right up until their messaging fell flat on it's face.

Disney has lost it's connection with it's customers. Bottom line. Whether it's culture, park experience, company direction, or just really bad messaging, the confidence in Disney is at an all time low. To recover, they need to get it back.

There's a lot to unpack here haha.

Your first paragraph is again just speculation with nothing to back it but your personal opinion.

I would say that stock price is partially reflective in consumer confidence in the company, and also reflective on the market as a whole, there are a lot more factors that drive stock prices then consumer confidence a lone. I think the stock price combined with other metrics would give you a better picture. (God knows, so many consumers had a ton of confidence in Game stop.)

Your forgot to mention that Disney missed their earnings in November by a large margin, once again not much to do with the consumer confidence, since the next time Disney released earnings, their stock took a pretty sizeable leap.

I think you are cherry picking to sell your opinion which is totally fine, it just doesn't seem to be rooted in reality

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I contend that Morrell never took over communication, no matter what his title was.

Interesting article about why Disney is in this hot mess and now in a culture war - it really does boil down to Mucha leaving more than anything else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/business/zenia-mucha-disney-retirement.html

"Ms. Mucha — who has been variously described during her career in politics and at Disney as “warrior princess,” “razor-sharp and acid-tongued,” “mother crocodile” and “director of revenge” — has influence at Disney that extends far beyond her official duties. As other C-suite executives have cycled through the company over the decades, Ms. Mucha has endured to become leadership team bedrock, giving her a voice in nearly every major corporate decision. In 2016, for instance, when Disney was thinking about buying Twitter, she was against it. (Too much porn, she cautioned.) Mr. Iger passed, later citing the platform’s “nastiness.”

Lately, Ms. Mucha’s job has taken on a difficult new dimension. Disney’s family-friendly brand is meant to be for everyone. But neutrality in today’s hyperpartisan world is almost impossible. Many employees and customers want and expect companies like Disney to be advocates for progressive issues. Another faction is just as adamant that Mickey Mouse and Buzz Lightyear steer clear of politics and hot-button cultural topics.

Walking that line — while protecting Disney at all costs — has forced Ms. Mucha to make decisions that have, more and more, cast her as a villain. Disney, for instance, did not comment in April when Hollywood stars and some other media companies publicly condemned Georgia Republicans for passing a law to restrict voting access. For Disney in that moment, she determined that the negatives of commenting outweighed the positives. In other instances, she has made the opposite call, adding Disney’s voice in support of issues such as L.G.B.T.Q. rights and racial justice."

Although the outcome may have been the same in terms of Disney supporting the L.G.B.T.Q. community, you can bet she would have navigated the waters differently - and likely WITHOUT upsetting the customer base nearly as much.