DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[OKW Lover]

Demand for cash rooms ebbs and flows a lot more than demand for DVC does.

Very good point. DVC is designed for essentially 100% occupancy all year.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Very good point. DVC is designed for essentially 100% occupancy all year.

And that's on the usage side. On the purchasing side, people with $50,000 for a timeshare purchase are less vulnerable to economic fluctuations than people with $5,000 for a cash stay.

 

[Figment1990]

Very good point. DVC is designed for essentially 100% occupancy all year.

And that's on the usage side. On the purchasing side, people with $50,000 for a timeshare purchase are less vulnerable to economic fluctuations than people with $5,000 for a cash stay.

Which theoretically means they now have fewer GF and Poly rooms that they have to worry about filling under the regular hotel room category. Lower supply, means potentially higher prices (or fewer discounts needed). Meanwhile, they’ve collected the original purchase on the converted DVC “rooms,” are collecting dues, and have less housekeeping requirements.

I just spent a few hours reading the last several years of DIS annual reports. I do still think DIS can return to better growth and profitability if they can continue to create magical stories and experiences. But in general their multiple was just too high and that’s probably the biggest reason we have seen the stock fall - IMO when it was at its highs, it was too high. And that was just an effect of what the stock market really is, which is about what people are willing to pay to buy a stock at the time and not a totally accurate reflection of its fundamentals. That’s just my opinion. On the other hand, some might look at Disney now and wonder if it’s a good value play at this point. I think it’s undervalued for the long term, but if you need returns in the short term, or are looking for dividends it’s probably not the right time. Inflation and a possible recession could impact their recovery as well.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I just spent a few hours reading the last several years of DIS annual reports. I do still think DIS can return to better growth and profitability if they can continue to create magical stories and experiences. But in general their multiple was just too high and that’s probably the biggest reason we have seen the stock fall - IMO when it was at its highs, it was too high. And that was just an effect of what the stock market really is, which is about what people are willing to pay to buy a stock at the time and not a totally accurate reflection of its fundamentals. That’s just my opinion. On the other hand, some might look at Disney now and wonder if it’s a good value play at this point. I think it’s undervalued for the long term, but if you need returns in the short term, or are looking for dividends it’s probably not the right time. Inflation and a possible recession could impact their recovery as well.

Well balanced assessment

 

[RivShore]

Here's a "synergy" I never thought possible - Netflix driving a serious number of viewers to ESPN:

Since the Netflix series “Drive to Survive” — featuring behind-the-scenes footage of the usually-secretive racing teams and the sometimes contentious relationships between drivers and team executives — debuted in 2019, the American audience for Formula 1 has skyrocketed.

Netflix doesn’t publicize viewer data, but the audience for ESPN’s coverage of Formula 1 races has nearly doubled — up to 1.5 million views per race — since the show premiered.

https://nypost.com/2022/05/07/how-formula-1-finally-won-us-over-thanks-to-netflix/

 

[RivShore]

10) “long wait times” and “feels crowded” and “park reservation availability” and “resort availability” does not necessarily correlate to high attendance. I wish we could see actual attendance figures. Wait times and room availability can be affected by supply availability, park pass manipulation, etc.

I don't think they have been restraining attendance for a while now. We go often and it really does fell like the busiest season every time we go. And with Seaworld killing it on attendance in Q1, I would hope the same for the domestic parks.

 

[Figment1990]

Have you noticed if the restaurants are all back to full capacity yet? One thing I noticed when we were there at thanksgiving (when park passes were unavailable and ADRs hard to come by), is that the restaurants were still not full capacity at all. Food and beverage has been one of the hardest labor shortages to fix (DH has direct experience with this through his work), and if they aren’t able to fill sit down restaurants because they can’t, then people are walking around instead, making it feel crowded. Plus think about the impact G+ can have on touring strategy. We used to be leave at 1pm and return at night people. But with G+, we found ourselves sometimes having to stay all day due to return times. That’s more people in the parks for more hours than in the past, but not necessarily higher attendance in terms of ticket revenue.

And I do think they could be limiting hotel capacity still, because they have to staff them to fill them. I noticed they report this figure sometimes in their annual report. I’ll be looking for it for this year for sure. Fascinating.

 

[RivShore]

Have you noticed if the restaurants are all back to full capacity yet? One thing I noticed when we were there at thanksgiving (when park passes were unavailable and ADRs hard to come by), is that the restaurants were still not full capacity at all. Food and beverage has been one of the hardest labor shortages to fix (DH has direct experience with this through his work), and if they aren’t able to fill sit down restaurants because they can’t, then people are walking around instead, making it feel crowded. Plus think about the impact G+ can have on touring strategy. We used to be leave at 1pm and return at night people. But with G+, we found ourselves sometimes having to stay all day due to return times. That’s more people in the parks for more hours than in the past, but not necessarily higher attendance in terms of ticket revenue.

And I do think they could be limiting hotel capacity still, because they have to staff them to fill them. I noticed they report this figure sometimes in their annual report. I’ll be looking for it for this year for sure. Fascinating.

We've only been to a few TS restaurants in the last few months and only at Epcot. Both were full, as in no empty tables, but they didn't feel overly crowded, maybe they still have some tables removed? We have mostly gone to Epcot for the festival food and to try Connections, which was very good for QS.

Interesting observation on G+, haven't tried it yet (thankfully).

Not sure if they are limiting capacity at the hotels but I can tell you that Orlando occupancy rates are very high and even better in the Lake Buena Vista area - 85% in March and 75% for Q1.

https://www.visitorlando.com/media/research/ tracks the data and their LBV numbers do not include Disney owned hotels but all the other hotels in and around WDW like Bonnet Creek, Swan and Dolphin, etc. Probably safe to assume Disney hotels are similar at the very least.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/08/disney-investors-focus-on-streaming-shouldnt-forget-theme-parks.html

Disney investors are focused on streaming, but don’t forget about theme parks​

Published Sun, May 8 20229:00 AM EDT
Sarah Whitten@sarahwhit10

Key Points

• In a little over a year, Disney’s theme parks have rebounded from massive pandemic-related operating losses.
• While not all international theme parks are fully reopened, domestic parks have seen strong ticket sales and foot traffic thanks to new rides and park expansions.
• Tech innovations have made the theme park experience and operations smoother for guests and cast members.
• Disney reports quarterly results Wednesday.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Have you noticed if the restaurants are all back to full capacity yet? One thing I noticed when we were there at thanksgiving (when park passes were unavailable and ADRs hard to come by), is that the restaurants were still not full capacity at all. Food and beverage has been one of the hardest labor shortages to fix (DH has direct experience with this through his work), and if they aren’t able to fill sit down restaurants because they can’t, then people are walking around instead, making it feel crowded. Plus think about the impact G+ can have on touring strategy. We used to be leave at 1pm and return at night people. But with G+, we found ourselves sometimes having to stay all day due to return times. That’s more people in the parks for more hours than in the past, but not necessarily higher attendance in terms of ticket revenue.

And I do think they could be limiting hotel capacity still, because they have to staff them to fill them. I noticed they report this figure sometimes in their annual report. I’ll be looking for it for this year for sure. Fascinating.

We went back last Oct, and noticed what you are saying about the seating at restaurants, and i would add on top of that, that the meals were all lack luster.

Just based on their last earnings, i don't think you can blame foot traffic on restaurants, because they blew doors on the last earnings call, and from how it's being reported now, they are a lot busier.

When it comes to Genie+, i feel like that issue occurred with FP+ as well. we would have a pass for mid-afternoon that we had to contend with getting rid of, or sticking it out at the park, i can only speak for myself, but resting typically won out over waiting an hour or more for a pass. I understand that it weighs a little more because you are paying for it directly, i just don't think for the price, people would let it dictate their vacation.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I think you're circling the right ideas but piecing them together wrong. Demand for cash rooms ebbs and flows a lot more than demand for DVC does.

Yeah, that's definitely a fair point. I think on top of it, it's i win win for Disney, because if they don't fill all DVC resorts with members on any given year, they can rent those rooms out to regular guests. I'm not versed on this so please correct me if i'm wrong, but since DVC members pay for all the upkeep in their Dues, Disney essentially gets to profit off the backs of their memebers

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Well here are the mid 100s like I mentioned a few weeks ago. I personally will not be adding more here but for those of you adamant that you want more Disney stock this is now the point to start thinking of dollar cost averaging in. It will hurt me to see it below 100 but I believe that’s where we’re unfortunately headed. I do think think there will be a big pop and possible small rally around earning but I don’t see how that doesn’t get sold off as that’s been the MO of not only Disney but every company lately. Gl.

 

[Jrb1979]

I hope the D+ numbers are good cause I have heard from some people that they plan to slash cap ex a lot.

Disney lately seems so focused on recouping the shutdown losses over trying to keep guests satisfied.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I hope the D+ numbers are good cause I have heard from some people that they plan to slash cap ex a lot.

Disney lately seems so focused on recouping the shutdown losses over trying to keep guests satisfied.

Most people who talk about "slashing capex" have no idea how much cruise ships cost.

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-dis-report-q2-131201880.html

Walt Disney (DIS) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Zacks Equity Research
Mon, May 9, 2022, 8:12 AM·4 min read

The Walt Disney DIS is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2022 results on May 11.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has moved down 1.6% to $1.20 per share over the past 30 days, indicating an increase of 51.9% year over year.

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $20.25 billion, suggesting growth of 29.73% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, missing in one, the average surprise being 67.82%

 

[OKW Lover]

I'm guessing the consensus will decline further in the next couple of trading days before the earnings announcement. With the broad market continuing to decline, analysts will be even more pessimistic.

 

[Jrb1979]

Most people who talk about "slashing capex" have no idea how much cruise ships cost.

I wasn't talking about cruise ships. It's the capex for the parks that's getting slashed.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I wasn't talking about cruise ships. It's the capex for the parks that's getting slashed.

Parks capex includes cruise ships.

 

[Jrb1979]

Parks capex includes cruise ships.

Then I guess they aren't slashing anything. They are going to spend spend spend.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Then I guess they aren't slashing anything. They are going to spend spend spend.

I would say that in general Disney doesn't typically cut costs, they are constantly adding on pretty much everywhere. The pandemic seems to be the only thing in recent memory that i can come up with when it comes to cutting costs back, and the pandemic basically tied their hands on that. I have seen them delay projects in the past, but not outright cut back on things they were already offering, again the pandemic being the exception