Agree and disagree. First I have stayed in every DVC resort over the last 15 years I have owned BWV. I would break it down to 80% stays at BWV and 20% other. So I feel I am speaking from a point of experience.
I've stayed in every WDW resort save BLT (turned it down), stayed at VB on exchanges for a fraction of the cost of my OKW (now sold), BWV and small AKV points packages & HH on cash (reimbursable from work). My costs have been maybe 20-25% of the cost of the points I owned had I used them instead. I then used the points for a night or 2 here and there and rented the rest. I think that's not representative of what the mass membership will do there but is just as representative as your situation. I simply don't think 80/20 is very representative of the membership as a whole, even some of those trying to stay there every trip may be lucky to get 80/20 if they're targeting a higher demand time. I'd point out that you and I are not the average member, the same for most longstanding members who are involved in a BBS such as this, we're quite the minority even in 2014. I think you overestimate the effort, understanding and knowledge of the average member of what they own.
So I will have to agree with you most people will try other resorts at some point. Like most disagreements, it comes down to the matter of the "degree" in what your talking about. People will cherry pick what they think are facts and somewhat exaggerate the degree which things may or may not happen. So most things, including my posts are opinions based on experience both personally and professionally.
Again, you are I are not representative of the group, that might apply to us accurately but will not to many members, likely not most members. ASAMOF, once the initial interest is siphoned off from members who wanted a piece of the pie and for those that didn't see DVC as something that fit their needs unless it was VGF (the VGF obsessed group I was referring to, I was not saying they emotionally blind) then I don't think the rest of the buyers going forward will be much different from when SSR was the only resort selling, maybe some but not that much.
When you use words like "obsessed with GF" I think that is a negative connotation that says to many, you are not thinking clearly during your purchasing decision because you are obsessed. I would disagree with this.
This was not my point. My point, as I noted above, was that there are those who only stay at VGF or the Poly, etc and that some of those are likely to buy in to DVC because now they can have both in one and they care little or nothing about the rest of the system. Now some of these will stay that course and some stray and every one that strays very far just spent money they didn't have to. A portion who think they want VGFf every time will change, it could be you, you really don't know until you've had several years of experience staying there.
After being at every DVC resort, knowing the amenities, services, grounds, rooms and other extras, I believe VGF is a cut above.
While not what I was talking about, I don't agree though I guess it ultimately depends on your definition of that term. I do agree it's different and unique and has an appeal but there will be those that like it and those that don't just like there are those that prefer OKW or SSR or even HH. GF wasn't even the most popular resort for repeat cash guests the last I saw, the Poly was and WL was next.
Financially I would never recommend financing at the Disney Rates, but 3.5% home equity loan wouldn't be awful. I think on another thread we bantered a little about the TVM calculations. Again, people can use different variables to put in the there calculations, thereby trying to justify or not justify a purchase. All my number crunching made sense if held for a 10 year period. If I was a guy who invested in Nasdaq at 5100 in 2001, boy would I have made out by buying BWV in 1999.
I disagree, I would never recommend financing DVC in any format, others do and that is their decision. The problem one gets into is that personal finance is mostly process and habit and really only a small % is the math. Many that would do so don't just finance DVC, they finance cars (often expensive ones or worse, lease them), they finance the vacation on a CC, etc, etc. Even though you're picking about the worst time in history to compare a car to a true investment, the investment would still be worth a lot more today than the car, not even close.
I feel, in my non obsessed assessment, that GF is the Flagship resort of WDW, closest by monorail to the most visited theme park in the world, most beautiful WDW resort with the best restaurants and services. I think this is the most important point, in my opinion the resort will be a bit of a game changer. Meaning you can not cut and paste buying decision into VGF as the same as other resorts. In my opinion people do realize they just made a substantial purchase and will overwhelmingly stay there most of the time. Yes, you are correct in that anytime they stay anywhere else on VGF points, they could have stayed there using resale points at about $65 a point. Not to wise a use of points. But most people are smart enough to figure that out over a short period of time. I said it before and I will say it again, if you want to stay there on any type of regular basis you will have to own there.
While I think it's a nice resort, I don't see it as being nearly as unique as do you, that's OK, you own there. Some will do as you say, others won't. The problem is that going forward (after the initial push from members adding on and those who would only buy DVC if it were the GF), I think it's far more like any other resort than different, not the same but far less different in structure and usage for the membership there as a whole than it would be for you or I.