Direct purchasing

[DizBub]

A week at VGF in value season at a standard studio would be 125pt, at BLT in a lake view, (remember smallest DVC studio)123 pts. VGF Lake view 148pts, and BLT theme park 141 pts. I know that is just one season, but if I am going the first 2 weeks of December or October (food and Wine) I will take spending a few extra points to be at VGF over BLT. In that scenario there is very little difference. Not trying to spin this, but that is the time frame a lot of DVC members like to be in Disney. And if your comparing the 2 resorts and you stay in studios, that is the comparison you need to make.

Got it. We are staying at BLT in a standard studio Sept 6 - 13 for 102 points. Since there is just 2 of us for that trip the studio is fine. I won't spring for the MK view. I like the savings of 23 points over VGF. Our trip to BCV 1st week of December is 107 points.

Who knows, we may manage to stay at VGF someday and fall in love with it. We really like staying at all the DVC resorts. My favorite one is usually the one I'm staying at.

 

[Dean]

Well said. That is the reason I bought VGF direct. I knew about the resale market, but calculated that by the time resales hit in any quantity, there would not be that much of a difference in the early buy in price and the resale market.

I also think there are only 2 resorts in WDW, where your really are buying into a resort rather than the system. BCV and VGF. Though you can come up with scenarios and strategies to get into those resorts at very slow times of the year, I feel owning there is really the only reliable way to stay at those resorts a huge part of the year. If VGF is not where you want to stay most of your vacations, buying SSR is the way to go. Though every DVC resort has its charm, I feel the Grand is a different experience and one that you will have to own to enjoy on any type of consistent basis without some luck . Direct only makes sense in very narrow situations in my opinion.

Unfortunately this will be true for only a subset of buyers there and that includes many who right now think it'll be their only choice.. The group who are likely to get the best value are those who have been on the sidelines but are educated on DVC over time and only buy in now because they are obsessed with GF and those who are already EXPERIENCED owners who are buying for the periodic trips to VGF but who have other options for other trips, this group will be the best situated. For the rest including those new to the game, love the idea of VGF without a lot of experience, buy off the street and even those who buy in wanting to stay there but can't get what they want, it will often not be worth it financially speaking. Every time they decide or have to use points for something else (DCL, ABC, non VGF resort) they will be losing value and can easily get into a situation where they are paying more than they would if they didn't own and just paid cash or rented privately. There is a far smaller margin of error and window of savings than for many other buy in scenarios. You will have some that buy and want to try the other resorts and some that think it'll be their preferred but it won't end up so. One will also have to guard against the common problem of not caring what a point actually cost or is worth after the purchase is done.

 

[DizBub]

Unfortunately this will be true for only a subset of buyers there and that includes many who right now think it'll be their only choice.. The group who are likely to get the best value are those who have been on the sidelines but are educated on DVC over time and only buy in now because they are obsessed with GF and those who are already EXPERIENCED owners who are buying for the periodic trips to VGF but who have other options for other trips, this group will be the best situated. For the rest including those new to the game, love the idea of VGF without a lot of experience, buy off the street and even those who buy in wanting to stay there but can't get what they want, it will often not be worth it financially speaking. Every time they decide or have to use points for something else (DCL, ABC, non VGF resort) they will be losing value and can easily get into a situation where they are paying more than they would if they didn't own and just paid cash or rented privately. There is a far smaller margin of error and window of savings than for many other buy in scenarios. You will have some that buy and want to try the other resorts and some that think it'll be their preferred but it won't end up so. One will also have to guard against the common problem of not caring what a point actually cost or is worth after the purchase is done.

This. Using the crudest calculations I figured that my 2 stays at BLT and BCV I spent $18,414 to purchase just the respective points (209) at those resorts.

To stay at VGF at the same times I would have had to purchase 250 points direct for the median price ($150pp) for $37,500. I did not figure MFs because those would average out.

As far as VGF goes to me it looks like emotion factors into this decision. But then again I use my "expensive" BLT and BCV points to stay at SSR and OKW too.

 

[Johnny D]

Unfortunately this will be true for only a subset of buyers there and that includes many who right now think it'll be their only choice.. The group who are likely to get the best value are those who have been on the sidelines but are educated on DVC over time and only buy in now because they are obsessed with GF and those who are already EXPERIENCED owners who are buying for the periodic trips to VGF but who have other options for other trips, this group will be the best situated. For the rest including those new to the game, love the idea of VGF without a lot of experience, buy off the street and even those who buy in wanting to stay there but can't get what they want, it will often not be worth it financially speaking. Every time they decide or have to use points for something else (DCL, ABC, non VGF resort) they will be losing value and can easily get into a situation where they are paying more than they would if they didn't own and just paid cash or rented privately. There is a far smaller margin of error and window of savings than for many other buy in scenarios. You will have some that buy and want to try the other resorts and some that think it'll be their preferred but it won't end up so. One will also have to guard against the common problem of not caring what a point actually cost or is worth after the purchase is done.

Agree and disagree. First I have stayed in every DVC resort over the last 15 years I have owned BWV. I would break it down to 80% stays at BWV and 20% other. So I feel I am speaking from a point of experience.

So I will have to agree with you most people will try other resorts at some point. Like most disagreements, it comes down to the matter of the "degree" in what your talking about. People will cherry pick what they think are facts and somewhat exaggerate the degree which things may or may not happen. So most things, including my posts are opinions based on experience both personally and professionally.

When you use words like "obsessed with GF" I think that is a negative connotation that says to many, you are not thinking clearly during your purchasing decision because you are obsessed. I would disagree with this.

After being at every DVC resort, knowing the amenities, services, grounds, rooms and other extras, I believe VGF is a cut above.

Financially I would never recommend financing at the Disney Rates, but 3.5% home equity loan wouldn't be awful. I think on another thread we bantered a little about the TVM calculations. Again, people can use different variables to put in the there calculations, thereby trying to justify or not justify a purchase. All my number crunching made sense if held for a 10 year period. If I was a guy who invested in Nasdaq at 5100 in 2001, boy would I have made out by buying BWV in 1999.

I feel, in my non obsessed assessment, that GF is the Flagship resort of WDW, closest by monorail to the most visited theme park in the world, most beautiful WDW resort with the best restaurants and services. I think this is the most important point, in my opinion the resort will be a bit of a game changer. Meaning you can not cut and paste buying decision into VGF as the same as other resorts. In my opinion people do realize they just made a substantial purchase and will overwhelmingly stay there most of the time. Yes, you are correct in that anytime they stay anywhere else on VGF points, they could have stayed there using resale points at about $65 a point. Not to wise a use of points. But most people are smart enough to figure that out over a short period of time. I said it before and I will say it again, if you want to stay there on any type of regular basis you will have to own there.

 

[Johnny D]

This. Using the crudest calculations I figured that my 2 stays at BLT and BCV I spent $18,414 to purchase just the respective points (209) at those resorts.

To stay at VGF at the same times I would have had to purchase 250 points direct for the median price ($150pp) for $37,500. I did not figure MFs because those would average out.

As far as VGF goes to me it looks like emotion factors into this decision. But then again I use my "expensive" BLT and BCV points to stay at SSR and OKW too.

It's usually better to buy something 10 years ago. However, look how well your doing with BCV. Resale still hovering around $100 a point, when others around $65. Why? Supply and Demand and location, location, location.

VGF expires in 2064...BCV 2042. That is a 22 year difference or 44%. I would think all things being equal the same product with the same demand would sell for 44% more given the expiration date. So the resale for VGF would be about $144 a point if BCV=VGF. Looking at Timeshare stores VGF current resales, they are asking between $140 and $145. Don't know what they are getting but the number makes sense. Though no one has a crystal ball on future resale values, I still would give the edge to VGF because it is smaller than BCV and it being Disney's flagship plus being on the monorail.

Not all people see the same value in something. But I strongly believe that if bought early, held and used the way I feel most will (90% + stays at that resort) You will absolutely see value and will not financially get hurt owning there. No emotions involved...just experience and analysis.

 

[bakerworld]

Why would anyone purchase direct from Disney ? The prices are high enough that if I could not buy resale I would not buy at all.

When we bought our 1st two contracts both were new venues - AK we couldn't even stay in for the 1st year - so buying resale wasn't an option. The last venue we wanted a very small contract because it's hard to get into BC in October.

We've stayed at BW 3 or 4 times now and DH has now put that on the 'back burner location list' along with OKW, SSR, WL, GF and AK. Given our 'back burner list' I don't see the resale market as a feature.

 

[DizBub]

We've stayed at BW 3 or 4 times now and DH has now put that on the 'back burner location list' along with OKW, SSR, WL, GF and AK. Given our 'back burner list' I don't see the resale market as a feature.

That leaves BLT and BCV. Or you are waiting for the Poly.

 

[bakerworld]

That leaves BLT and BCV. Or you are waiting for the Poly.

Yes, BC is our FAV - BL works ... however, now we're talking about selling BL (because it's selling higher on resale that we bought) to purchase Poly, which is a walk-able distance to the Transportation Center.

I kinda want to sell AK but those Value 1Br are the same cost as a studio at BC, plus it's still below our initial purchase price.

 

[lovin'fl]

We just, last week, bought BWV direct. We wanted 55 points in one of our 2 current UY and we got that. We had been looking via resale for a long time. And it really isn't that much more, cost, than buying resale as the little contracts go for higher $pp resale and closing costs are lower with direct...and the best part is getting a fully loaded contract. But, typically, we agree that the pricing is just too much. When we first bought, OKW resale in 2006, and SSR was selling new we were at the (almost) $100pp price...we said that we'd never pay triple digits (never say never ).

 

[DizBub]

I kinda want to sell AK but those Value 1Br are the same cost as a studio at BC, plus it's still below our initial purchase price.

After staying in a value studio at AKV I finally see the allure of owning AKV.

Just not buying direct.

 

[Dean]

Agree and disagree. First I have stayed in every DVC resort over the last 15 years I have owned BWV. I would break it down to 80% stays at BWV and 20% other. So I feel I am speaking from a point of experience.

I've stayed in every WDW resort save BLT (turned it down), stayed at VB on exchanges for a fraction of the cost of my OKW (now sold), BWV and small AKV points packages & HH on cash (reimbursable from work). My costs have been maybe 20-25% of the cost of the points I owned had I used them instead. I then used the points for a night or 2 here and there and rented the rest. I think that's not representative of what the mass membership will do there but is just as representative as your situation. I simply don't think 80/20 is very representative of the membership as a whole, even some of those trying to stay there every trip may be lucky to get 80/20 if they're targeting a higher demand time. I'd point out that you and I are not the average member, the same for most longstanding members who are involved in a BBS such as this, we're quite the minority even in 2014. I think you overestimate the effort, understanding and knowledge of the average member of what they own.

So I will have to agree with you most people will try other resorts at some point. Like most disagreements, it comes down to the matter of the "degree" in what your talking about. People will cherry pick what they think are facts and somewhat exaggerate the degree which things may or may not happen. So most things, including my posts are opinions based on experience both personally and professionally.

Again, you are I are not representative of the group, that might apply to us accurately but will not to many members, likely not most members. ASAMOF, once the initial interest is siphoned off from members who wanted a piece of the pie and for those that didn't see DVC as something that fit their needs unless it was VGF (the VGF obsessed group I was referring to, I was not saying they emotionally blind) then I don't think the rest of the buyers going forward will be much different from when SSR was the only resort selling, maybe some but not that much.

When you use words like "obsessed with GF" I think that is a negative connotation that says to many, you are not thinking clearly during your purchasing decision because you are obsessed. I would disagree with this.

This was not my point. My point, as I noted above, was that there are those who only stay at VGF or the Poly, etc and that some of those are likely to buy in to DVC because now they can have both in one and they care little or nothing about the rest of the system. Now some of these will stay that course and some stray and every one that strays very far just spent money they didn't have to. A portion who think they want VGFf every time will change, it could be you, you really don't know until you've had several years of experience staying there.

After being at every DVC resort, knowing the amenities, services, grounds, rooms and other extras, I believe VGF is a cut above.

While not what I was talking about, I don't agree though I guess it ultimately depends on your definition of that term. I do agree it's different and unique and has an appeal but there will be those that like it and those that don't just like there are those that prefer OKW or SSR or even HH. GF wasn't even the most popular resort for repeat cash guests the last I saw, the Poly was and WL was next.

Financially I would never recommend financing at the Disney Rates, but 3.5% home equity loan wouldn't be awful. I think on another thread we bantered a little about the TVM calculations. Again, people can use different variables to put in the there calculations, thereby trying to justify or not justify a purchase. All my number crunching made sense if held for a 10 year period. If I was a guy who invested in Nasdaq at 5100 in 2001, boy would I have made out by buying BWV in 1999.

I disagree, I would never recommend financing DVC in any format, others do and that is their decision. The problem one gets into is that personal finance is mostly process and habit and really only a small % is the math. Many that would do so don't just finance DVC, they finance cars (often expensive ones or worse, lease them), they finance the vacation on a CC, etc, etc. Even though you're picking about the worst time in history to compare a car to a true investment, the investment would still be worth a lot more today than the car, not even close.

I feel, in my non obsessed assessment, that GF is the Flagship resort of WDW, closest by monorail to the most visited theme park in the world, most beautiful WDW resort with the best restaurants and services. I think this is the most important point, in my opinion the resort will be a bit of a game changer. Meaning you can not cut and paste buying decision into VGF as the same as other resorts. In my opinion people do realize they just made a substantial purchase and will overwhelmingly stay there most of the time. Yes, you are correct in that anytime they stay anywhere else on VGF points, they could have stayed there using resale points at about $65 a point. Not to wise a use of points. But most people are smart enough to figure that out over a short period of time. I said it before and I will say it again, if you want to stay there on any type of regular basis you will have to own there.

While I think it's a nice resort, I don't see it as being nearly as unique as do you, that's OK, you own there. Some will do as you say, others won't. The problem is that going forward (after the initial push from members adding on and those who would only buy DVC if it were the GF), I think it's far more like any other resort than different, not the same but far less different in structure and usage for the membership there as a whole than it would be for you or I.

 

[jockotaco]

Some logical reasons. We bought a small contract and didn't make the decision until we were ready to take the trip. We were going to VGC and the cost difference in points direct vs resale was offset by the cost of the reservation (we checked availability first) So the fact that direct points were available for use immediately and in direct who knows when made us choose to go direct. We will buy resale for all add ons.

 

[Tdisney]

Just to make sure I am not way off base here; isn't bay lake towers going for 165 a point ?

Is that the same as VGF ?

 

[Msmithmd]

You are correct on the BLT price. It is currently higher than the VGF price. There is a link in the stickies at the top of the threads to the complete DVC pricing history at all of the resorts. Mid-way down the "DVC resource center" thread.

 

[Dean]

You are correct on the BLT price. It is currently higher than the VGF price. There is a link in the stickies at the top of the threads to the complete DVC pricing history at all of the resorts. Mid-way down the "DVC resource center" thread.

They took a slightly different approach with VGF. Instead of pricing it at the highest then giving discounts, they just priced it lower. The end point was the same as they've done recently with simply a slightly different method to get there.

 

[bakerworld]

They took a slightly different approach with VGF. Instead of pricing it at the highest then giving discounts, they just priced it lower. The end point was the same as they've done recently with simply a slightly different method to get there.

Hoping they do the same thing with the Poly

 

[Dean]

Hoping they do the same thing with the Poly

To clarify, the principal was the same but since there weren't any discounts that were point dependent, it was better for many buyers.

 

[gerrym51]

In 1993 when we bought only OKW existed-the price was 56 dollars a point-and we got 7 years of free park passes,


OKW rooms are still the biggest.

I have stayed over the years just about everywhere. we have stayed at GF(the hotel section).

we are back to OKW now. the ambiance is still the best for us.

 

[Johnny D]

While not what I was talking about, I don't agree though I guess it ultimately depends on your definition of that term. I do agree it's different and unique and has an appeal but there will be those that like it and those that don't just like there are those that prefer OKW or SSR or even HH. GF wasn't even the most popular resort for repeat cash guests the last I saw, the Poly was and WL was next.

Dean,

You always seem to give slivers of facts and information that fit an agenda.
So to a person that does not fully get the big picture, they will take your word as gospel. Here is some of the other side of the story.

Basic economics dealing with supply and demand curves and where they intersect will determine where a company will set their price. We all know that Disney is a huge company and loves profits. They set price based on many factors but their pricing is not throwing darts at a dart board. They price GF and VGF at the highest price point (on average) over all Disney resorts, because it intersects at a higher equilibrium point on the supply and demand curves then any other resort. Simply stated it is Disney's top resort and most popular. What will change the demand at any given time is the price. So it is not surprising that," GF wasn't even the most popular resort for repeat cash guests the last I saw, the Poly was and WL was next." That is because in the attempt to maximize profit Disney will raise the price somewhat curtailing demand(not popularity) to maximize there profit. The conclusion is that GF and VGF is the most popular because they can get the most money per night. To maximize their profit they will take the greater profit margin over volume.

That is not to say you can't get thousands of OKW, SSR, BWV and so on claiming why their resort is the best and why they like it better. The pricing at the resort based on the science of economics settles, in my opinion the question of overall popularity.

Now as far as how VGF compares and whether or not it is worth it is subjective to a certain degree, but I believe it to be very much of value if people understand (as I think most who buy VGF due) they bought Disney's top resort and using points elsewhere will not be maximizing their points. I believe VGF buyers will use their points at a vastly higher percentage at their home resort. Now we get in to the "matter of the degree" discussion again. No, not ever VGF owner will stay at VGF all the time. But you seem to believe that the percentage booked outside their home resort compared to others in the system will be negligible. I STRONGLY disagree, but time will tell.

What you seem to be missing with VGF is that it is so small. Most people book studios and (this is just my opinion) the price point of the studios is right on. Though higher than any DVC studio, based on the resort, size and able to sleep 5 people, the demand will far exceed the supply most of the year.

On the other hand, I believe Disney priced the 1 Bedrooms a little too high. This will make a studio almost impossible to get.

Lastly, I and many other add on members concluded in their purchase, that they were buying the Grand Floridian, not buying into the DVC system. I would love to see the stats on the add on percentage of sales vs. new sales into the DVC system. The resort is currently 42% sold out with 75% of inventory declared and it is still almost impossible to get a reservation in a studio at 7 months.

 

[Dean]

Dean,

You always seem to give slivers of facts and information that fit an agenda.
So to a person that does not fully get the big picture, they will take your word as gospel. Here is some of the other side of the story.

Basic economics dealing with supply and demand curves and where they intersect will determine where a company will set their price. We all know that Disney is a huge company and loves profits. They set price based on many factors but their pricing is not throwing darts at a dart board. They price GF and VGF at the highest price point (on average) over all Disney resorts, because it intersects at a higher equilibrium point on the supply and demand curves then any other resort. Simply stated it is Disney's top resort and most popular. What will change the demand at any given time is the price. So it is not surprising that," GF wasn't even the most popular resort for repeat cash guests the last I saw, the Poly was and WL was next." That is because in the attempt to maximize profit Disney will raise the price somewhat curtailing demand(not popularity) to maximize there profit. The conclusion is that GF and VGF is the most popular because they can get the most money per night. To maximize their profit they will take the greater profit margin over volume.

That is not to say you can't get thousands of OKW, SSR, BWV and so on claiming why their resort is the best and why they like it better. The pricing at the resort based on the science of economics settles, in my opinion the question of overall popularity.

Now as far as how VGF compares and whether or not it is worth it is subjective to a certain degree, but I believe it to be very much of value if people understand (as I think most who buy VGF due) they bought Disney's top resort and using points elsewhere will not be maximizing their points. I believe VGF buyers will use their points at a vastly higher percentage at their home resort. Now we get in to the "matter of the degree" discussion again. No, not ever VGF owner will stay at VGF all the time. But you seem to believe that the percentage booked outside their home resort compared to others in the system will be negligible. I STRONGLY disagree, but time will tell.

What you seem to be missing with VGF is that it is so small. Most people book studios and (this is just my opinion) the price point of the studios is right on. Though higher than any DVC studio, based on the resort, size and able to sleep 5 people, the demand will far exceed the supply most of the year.

On the other hand, I believe Disney priced the 1 Bedrooms a little too high. This will make a studio almost impossible to get.

Lastly, I and many other add on members concluded in their purchase, that they were buying the Grand Floridian, not buying into the DVC system. I would love to see the stats on the add on percentage of sales vs. new sales into the DVC system. The resort is currently 42% sold out with 75% of inventory declared and it is still almost impossible to get a reservation in a studio at 7 months.

OK, I didn't see anything of fact where we disagree since there really isn't any there other than the sales numbers possibly, only as to how strongly a given type of usage is likely to be. At this rate VGF won't even be the fastest sell out of new DVC resorts.