Debating DVC Purchase

[havoc315]

The straight-line depreciation for BW is $5.8. At five years, that would make BW 104.8.

No DVC property has ever depreciated at the straight-line rate, even depreciating at all would be a big departure from the historic math. I can't see BW/BC as the outlier on quick depreciation.

There is no historic precedent to follow. No DVC contract has ever expired before.
2042 is the first batch of expirations, of all time.

 

[Sandisw]

The straight-line depreciation for BW is $5.8. At five years, that would make BW 104.8.

No DVC property has ever depreciated at the straight-line rate, even depreciating at all would be a big departure from the historic math. I can't see BW/BC as the outlier on quick depreciation. I also agree they will depreciate quickly at the end of their lifespan, which makes the short term depreciation lower. I think a 2042 BC/BW in 2032 is a very appealing property and chart. I can see the entire system depreciating quickly, but that's a different discussion.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/

I bought a resale BWVs for $55 and $52 in 2012. When I was first looking in 2009, they were in the $80s.

So there have been times when resale took a dive. But, it still comes down to what people want out of their purchase. And I just don’t see how resales are RIV in 10 years will not be selling for more Thant BWV. They are now.

 

[havoc315]

I've run the numbers 234094924094290 different ways and it's speculation as who knows the future. Yes, BWV is great for all the reasons but it's nothing in 20 years. RR even with the resale restrictions is a better option for us given the additional 29 years and the assumption I could unload it with w/o too much concern for a loss. Or, we just keep it. Poly/GFV is a more expensive option but at least I got a shot of getting in with my RR points (w/ the $21PP savings now). My buddy was trying to talk into BLT but resale is scaring me more and more especially in 2042 when several resorts come off the market.

I think the real question is: how many RR direct points? 161 is needed for our typical 9 night Nov but 200 points is a $2K additional savings. My only major gripe is the near 50% increase for a 1BR. Wife puts a TON of stock into the in-room laundry and kitchen.

The 1 BR is point-expensive compared to studios at every resort. But yes, they are fantastic.

If you ever travel with others, extended family, etc -- a 2 BR-lockoff at Riviera is fantastic. It's a studio combined with a 1 BR, so sleeps up to 10. And it's cheaper than separately booking a studio and a 1 BR.

We purchased simultaneously with close friends whom we often vacation with. We each got 200 points..... 400 combined points can basically give us a 2 BR, one week per year.

Just also remember, when you buy direct -- You effectively get double points your first year. Buying re-sale, it's contract specific, There are "loaded" contract with double points, and there are "stripped" contracts which make you wait over a year just to get any points.

 

[Ruttangel]

The straight-line depreciation for BW is $5.8. At five years, that would make BW 104.8.

No DVC property has ever depreciated at the straight-line rate, even depreciating at all would be a big departure from the historic math. I can't see BW/BC as the outlier on quick depreciation. I also agree they will depreciate quickly at the end of their lifespan, which makes the short term depreciation lower. I think a 2042 BC/BW in 2032 is a very appealing property and chart. I can see the entire system depreciating quickly, but that's a different discussion.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/

If you assume DVC suspends direct sales in 2032 for BWV/BCV and resale price drops out of sight. What are non-owner options, cash room or rent?
The rental market for these resorts could be off the chart.

 

[Sandisw]

If you assume DVC suspends direct sales in 2032 for BWV/BCV and resale price drops out of sight. What are non-owner options, cash room or rent?
The rental market for these resorts could be off the chart.

Unless they also suspend trading and remove them from BVTC. Owners could be forced to stay only there. Wonder how that would impact booking for those owners?..

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I've run the numbers 234094924094290 different ways and it's speculation as who knows the future. Yes, BWV is great for all the reasons but it's nothing in 20 years. RR even with the resale restrictions is a better option for us given the additional 29 years and the assumption I could unload it with w/o too much concern for a loss. Or, we just keep it. Poly/GFV is a more expensive option but at least I got a shot of getting in with my RR points (w/ the $21PP savings now). My buddy was trying to talk into BLT but resale is scaring me more and more especially in 2042 when several resorts come off the market.

I think the real question is: how many RR direct points? 161 is needed for our typical 9 night Nov but 200 points is a $2K additional savings. My only major gripe is the near 50% increase for a 1BR. Wife puts a TON of stock into the in-room laundry and kitchen.

All I can say is (somehow) your wife is not alone. I personally cannot even stand the thought of cooking or doing laundry on vacation. Does your wife like housework? lol

In 22 years we have done laundry on vacation twice. 1 time it wasn't even "laundry". My husband got his shoes soaked and didn't bring an extra pair. So, he dried wet, dirty shoes in the dryer that someone else came along and put their clean clothes into. The other time I believe we washed some items because someone had vomited.

Yuck to both. No thanks.

But I guess I'm the weird one.

 

[havoc315]

Unless they also suspend trading and remove them from BVTC. Owners could be forced to stay only there. Wonder how that would impact booking for those owners?..

I don't see it being removed from BVTC... Only issue I see, maybe they suspend banking in 2040, to prevent excess 2041 demand. They will have to allow borrowing of 2041 points -- Otherwise people with a December 2041 use year would only get 2 months to use their points.

Anyway, I was looking at re-sale listings recently, and to my eyes: It appears that prices have risen tremendously in the last 6 months. This makes sense with the pandemic hopefully finding down, stimulus checks, etc. But re-sale prices have really only gone up significantly at the non-2042 resorts. Seems that re-sale pricing for 2042 resorts are at a plateau... My best guest, they will remain at a plateau for the next 2-4 years, then start declining. By 2030, you'll really start to see decline in 2042 re-sale prices.

 

[havoc315]

All I can say is (somehow) your wife is not alone. I personally cannot even stand the thought of cooking or doing laundry on vacation. Does your wife like housework? lol

In 22 years we have done laundry on vacation twice. 1 time it wasn't even "laundry". My husband got his shoes soaked and didn't bring an extra pair. So, he dried wet, dirty shoes in the dryer that someone else came along and put their clean clothes into. The other time I believe we washed some items because someone had vomited.

Yuck to both. No thanks.

But I guess I'm the weird one.

We actually love having laundry availability on vacation. Mostly because we don't like having bags of dirty laundry to bring home at the trip. And so we aren't running out of clothes by the end. So it lightens up our packing as well.

On the other hand, I hate doing dishes or real cooking on vacation.

 

[Ruttangel]

I don't see it being removed from BVTC... Only issue I see, maybe they suspend banking in 2040, to prevent excess 2041 demand. They will have to allow borrowing of 2041 points -- Otherwise people with a December 2041 use year would only get 2 months to use their points.

Anyway, I was looking at re-sale listings recently, and to my eyes: It appears that prices have risen tremendously in the last 6 months. This makes sense with the pandemic hopefully finding down, stimulus checks, etc. But re-sale prices have really only gone up significantly at the non-2042 resorts. Seems that re-sale pricing for 2042 resorts are at a plateau... My best guest, they will remain at a plateau for the next 2-4 years, then start declining. By 2030, you'll really start to see decline in 2042 re-sale prices.

Yes, we paid $100pp for 70pts BWV only 6 months ago ($115pp including closing etc).
DVC resale market quote this as $148 right now!!!
A lot of this increase is DVC taking contracts in the 150-200pt range propping up smaller contracts even further.
I can’t see them taking 2042 resorts in ROFR after 2027.
Except OKW, they might take all of them to rebadge and sell as 2057

 

[havoc315]

Yes, we paid $100pp for 70pts BWV only 6 months ago ($115pp including closing etc).
DVC resale market quote this as $148 right now!!!
A lot of this increase is DVC taking contracts in the 150-200pt range propping up smaller contracts even further.
I can’t see them taking 2042 resorts in ROFR after 2027.
Except OKW, they might take all of them to rebadge and sell as 2057

I see a few factors likely causing the recent surge pricing:
1 -- Disney had taken a break from ROFR, now becoming active again
2 -- Travel starting to open up
3-- Stimulus checks.

 

[sagosto]

I am swaying back-n-forth. You can argue/debate this all done long but, it's pure speculation as Disney will always do what's best for them. As a newb, I see no 'answer' but look at the data and just make a decision based on some analysis and what makes you happy. I thank everyone here as I went from knowing nothing to narrowing down a decision in like 10 hours.

We've narrowed down choices to RIV/POLY/GFV/BW based on having relative easy to multiple parks due to either monorail or Skyliner. While I can get BW resale, the 20 year contact and Disney making decisions to benefit direct scares me. If you are limited in funds, it's worth considering that you can get out at 20 years with BW. But, who knows what the last 5 years or so looks like with any of the contracts? POLY/GFV are tempting but much more expensive when you consider I am at $180PP for 200 at RR. I get a few more years on the contract vs the others and when I kick the bucket, the kids get everything so who cares? At least with RIV, I got a shot to get into POLY/GFV for a change.

Disney and my cheapness don't mix well but I really love it there even as they continue to slowly strip away things. I guess they are doing something right....

 

[havoc315]

I am swaying back-n-forth. You can argue/debate this all done long but, it's pure speculation as Disney will always do what's best for them. As a newb, I see no 'answer' but look at the data and just make a decision based on some analysis and what makes you happy. I thank everyone here as I went from knowing nothing to narrowing down a decision in like 10 hours.

We've narrowed down choices to RIV/POLY/GFV/BW based on having relative easy to multiple parks due to either monorail or Skyliner. While I can get BW resale, the 20 year contact and Disney making decisions to benefit direct scares me. If you are limited in funds, it's worth considering that you can get out at 20 years with BW. But, who knows what the last 5 years or so looks like with any of the contracts? POLY/GFV are tempting but much more expensive when you consider I am at $180PP for 200 at RR. I get a few more years on the contract vs the others and when I kick the bucket, the kids get everything so who cares? At least with RIV, I got a shot to get into POLY/GFV for a change.

Disney and my cheapness don't mix well but I really love it there even as they continue to slowly strip away things. I guess they are doing something right....

Good luck with your decision. Honestly, I think you'll ultimately be happy with whatever you pick. It's easy to fall in love with all 4 of those properties.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I am swaying back-n-forth. You can argue/debate this all done long but, it's pure speculation as Disney will always do what's best for them. As a newb, I see no 'answer' but look at the data and just make a decision based on some analysis and what makes you happy. I thank everyone here as I went from knowing nothing to narrowing down a decision in like 10 hours.

We've narrowed down choices to RIV/POLY/GFV/BW based on having relative easy to multiple parks due to either monorail or Skyliner. While I can get BW resale, the 20 year contact and Disney making decisions to benefit direct scares me. If you are limited in funds, it's worth considering that you can get out at 20 years with BW. But, who knows what the last 5 years or so looks like with any of the contracts? POLY/GFV are tempting but much more expensive when you consider I am at $180PP for 200 at RR. I get a few more years on the contract vs the others and when I kick the bucket, the kids get everything so who cares? At least with RIV, I got a shot to get into POLY/GFV for a change.

Disney and my cheapness don't mix well but I really love it there even as they continue to slowly strip away things. I guess they are doing something right....

Most of us torture ourselves until we buy. I don't see many people come back upset with their purchase.

Some of us keep track of savings and break even, but a lot of us don't even care anymore once it's done.

I get much more worked up about buying a car that I'll drive until it's worthless and/or costing me too much in repairs. I enjoy DVC a lot more than any car I've owned.

 

[Brian Noble]

I see a few factors likely causing the recent surge pricing:
1 -- Disney had taken a break from ROFR, now becoming active again
2 -- Travel starting to open up
3-- Stimulus checks.

We cancelled *several* trips in 2020 that were (for us) on the pricier side b/c it was a milestone year. Add to that the general reduction in expenses that many of us have had: we aren't eating out for dinner, I'm not ordering takeout for lunch, I'm not getting my daily $5 cappuccino, I'm not putting many miles on the car, etc. etc. etc. So, even though we were not recipients of the various stimulus efforts, we have a significant chunk of unexpected (unspent) cash.

I suspect we are not alone in that.

 

[Brian Noble]

Most of us torture ourselves until we buy. I don't see many people come back upset with their purchase.

Some of us keep track of savings and break even, but a lot of us don't even care anymore once it's done.

I think this is right. Timeshare is not really a financial purchase. It is an aspirational lifestyle purchase, with just enough of a "finance" fig leaf to make it seem more palatable.

In the long run, I suspect very strongly that no one has ever "saved" money by owning a timeshare, where saved is defined as: "spent less on vacations owning the timeshare than I would have spent if I never owned." That's because I believe most timeshare owners end up vacationing more regularly than they would have had they not been owners.

 

[Lorrie7249]

I am swaying back-n-forth. You can argue/debate this all done long but, it's pure speculation as Disney will always do what's best for them. As a newb, I see no 'answer' but look at the data and just make a decision based on some analysis and what makes you happy. I thank everyone here as I went from knowing nothing to narrowing down a decision in like 10 hours.

We've narrowed down choices to RIV/POLY/GFV/BW based on having relative easy to multiple parks due to either monorail or Skyliner. While I can get BW resale, the 20 year contact and Disney making decisions to benefit direct scares me. If you are limited in funds, it's worth considering that you can get out at 20 years with BW. But, who knows what the last 5 years or so looks like with any of the contracts? POLY/GFV are tempting but much more expensive when you consider I am at $180PP for 200 at RR. I get a few more years on the contract vs the others and when I kick the bucket, the kids get everything so who cares? At least with RIV, I got a shot to get into POLY/GFV for a change.

Disney and my cheapness don't mix well but I really love it there even as they continue to slowly strip away things. I guess they are doing something right....

a couple months back - i was in a similar position wanting an EPCOT/HS resort. I truly would have liked to get BW so we could walk to 2 parks, and having 11 month advantage for grand villas there, but in the end, i decided on RR for same rationale as you with the fact that in 20 years, RR is still there and worth something and BW is gone, along with direct means unrestricted points. We went with 200 points.... i wonder still if i should have gotten a fixed week (Jersey week would have been really nice) and then an additional contract to get to 200. Finalized getting a 125 pt. and a 75pt. If you anticipate traveling during Jersey week primarily (I think its week 44?), definitely speak with your guide about that fixed week option and adding on an additional contract to get past 200 for added incentive level.

Good luck deciding.

 

[Lumpy1106]

this thread TLR so sorry if this has been covered.
What I did was write a spreadsheet with the initial buy-in as a one-time cost and the Maintenance fees as an annual cost. I compared that to the stay we would do if we did not buy in. For us, it was a 1br suite @ AoA, for you maybe it's a studio @ CBR. You can easily look up TODAY prices for all of those things, but what you are really comparing is what will the price be 5-10 years down the line. MFs are estimated for the coming year and are the ACTUAL costs. When the FL minimum wage went up, so did MFs, when they do a remodel, MFs go up, when the resort us shut down due to a world-wide pandemic - OK, that was different, but the cost went down because the ACTUAL cost was less, so we got that back as a credit, but it did not affect the MFs for the next year because the assumption is still the resort will be open.

The comparative cost of the alternate accommodation - I applied a "Disney Inflation" factor to that. That's going to be more than standard inflation, but is still a guess. LSS, the room rack rate goes p faster than the MFs, plus your sunk one-time cost of buying the points is done. I stands to reason that as you get 8-10 years into the contract, DVC gets to be a MUCH better deal than continuing to pay rack rate for the room.

SO...
What buying DVC is really doing is locking you in to a Disney trip each year. If that's what you are doing anyway, GREAT! DVC is going to work out for you. If maybe you are really only intending to go every 3rd year, it's not - or at least your plans are about to change.

IF...
You get 2-3 years in and realize you just aren't enjoying the annual WDW trips, then you can sell the contract on the resale market. If you bought resale, you won't be out much, and in fact you may even come out a little ahead. Annual trips for the cost of MFs are about 1/2 what you would pay rack rate so that's a pretty good deal.

As for where to buy, everyone else has that covered, but DO take a LONG look at points charts and MFs before you dive in. RIV is the new shiny penny, the direct to resale price difference is not that great, and direct RIV looks like a fantastic deal. UNTIL you look at the points charts and the MFs, both of which are very high compared to the other resorts. Don't get me wrong, it's a nice place, the Skyliner is a huge bonus, the amenities are new and better than just about any other resort - but you will be paying more - quite a bit more.

 

[RoseGold]

We've narrowed down choices to RIV/POLY/GFV/BW

Disney and my cheapness don't mix well but I really love it there even as they continue to slowly strip away things. I guess they are doing something right....

Poly doesn’t even have 1BR, so not sure why it’s on this list. On this list, BW is an outlier on the other for the CHART. Not only does your money go further in points, your points go further. It’s just less commitment all around. Less buy in, less commitment, less time. There’s something to be said for that if it’s your plan.

I also value cheapness and yet bought VGF. Unlike RIV’s rack rate, which I doubt anyone has paid, VGF has buildings of people paying those rates, for roughly the same chart and cost as RIV. It feels pretty good to see a 19 point reservation for $800 and makes me feel like I got a good value.

Would I have ever paid $800 for VGF? Probably not. But I would have paid for CB, which is what I paid, and I like feeling like I got a deal. VGF is small and books fast at peak times.

 

[Sandisw]

Poly doesn’t even have 1BR, so not sure why it’s on this list. On this list, BW is an outlier on the other for the CHART. Not only does your money go further in points, your points go further. It’s just less commitment all around. Less buy in, less commitment, less time. There’s something to be said for that if it’s your plan.

I also value cheapness and yet bought VGF. Unlike RIV’s rack rate, which I doubt anyone has paid, VGF has buildings of people paying those rates, for roughly the same chart and cost as RIV. It feels pretty good to see a 19 point reservation for $800 and makes me feel like I got a good value.

Would I have ever paid $800 for VGF? Probably not. But I would have paid for CB, which is what I paid, and I like feeling like I got a deal. VGF is small and books fast at peak times.

I have friends who did indeed pay over $600 a night to stay at RIV. They loved it. Everyone has their favorites.

 

[RoseGold]

I have friends who did indeed pay over $600 a night to stay at RIV. They loved it. Everyone has their favorites.

RIV rack rate for non-tower studio is over $700 for all but a few dates, it’s often in the 900s.

Rack rate is ridiculously high to make the timeshare math work for RIV.