Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Please bring this back to DVC and off the topic of traveling abroad. Some posts are coming close to being not appropriate.

Oh shoot, my bad I read this after my post, sorry Sandi, I won’t respond further unless it’s DVC related.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Nothing to see here! Back on topic!

 

[Cfabar1]

I personally am a little intrigued by what is happening with VGF pricing...

It seems like a lot of contracts are staying at higher prices and not falling, probably because DVC is ROFRing it... But in turn it seems like contracts are just sitting on the market for a lot longer.

 

[Genie+]

I personally am a little intrigued by what is happening with VGF pricing...

It seems like a lot of contracts are staying at higher prices and not falling, probably because DVC is ROFRing it... But in turn it seems like contracts are just sitting on the market for a lot longer.

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

 

[Hubalorian]

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

That word value gets tricky. The value meal at McDonalds gets you quite a bit of food, but if you paid more you would get more “value” in terms of nutrition else where. It relies on what you find valuable?

 

[Tatebeck]

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

Yeah in general resale is usually a better deal, but there are definitely cases like yours where direct can be pretty good too. Hard to compare the VGF direct firesale to the terrible direct incentives they have right now across the board. Timing for direct and resale both can be very important. Direct RIV now is a much worse deal than when we bought not long ago for example.

But if we resold RIV now we would lose value, a big chunk of it probably due to the restrictions. But true to the general rule our resale contracts would be better off and have actually in general gone up in value over the last couple years since we bought. I think for 2 or 3 of the 4 we could probably sell for more than we paid and the other 1 to 2 would be break even, and we got to use a couple years of points from those too.

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah in general resale is usually a better deal, but there are definitely cases like yours where direct can be pretty good too. Hard to compare the VGF direct firesale to the terrible direct incentives they have right now across the board. Timing for direct and resale both can be very important. Direct RIV now is a much worse deal than when we bought not long ago.

But if we resold RIV now we would lose value, a big chunk of it probably due to the restrictions. But true to the general rule our resale contracts have in general gone up in value over the last couple years since we bought. I think for 2 or 3 of the 4 we could probably sell for more than we paid and the other 1 to 2 would be break even, and we got to use a couple years of points from those too.

People who bought resale in 2022 when RoFR was rampant and prices went way up, would lose quite a bit if they sold now.

So, it really does all depend on when one buys. Which is why I think expecting that things will also be more when you go to sell is dsngerous.

As I mentioned before, I had an SSR taken in 2022 for $125 so people were paying more than that.

I sold BLT for $189 in 2021…it will be interesting to see where things go.

 

[juliebee]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

 

[atthebeachclub]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

They’ve barely been ROFRing already for the past few years; only at a few select resorts.

 

[heynowirv]

I feel ya! In fact it literally affected me directly today. After months and months of low balling I finally got very close to a fully loaded contract at a very attractive price. The agent was gently nudging me to come up slightly to close the deal and I looked at my portfolio...looked at the contract...looked at my portfolio...and just got scared off thinking maybe it's just a little more prudent to hold on to cash right now. And this could all be a nothing burger and a temporary blip but...welll...you know how human psyche works.

But IF prices drift down a considerable amount then I'm thinking Poly will be had cheap as that's been the most inflated and probably has the farthest to fall. 125 pp? I'd be all over it!

I second that sentiment ,I too am looking toward Poly we toured the Tower last week and my wife fell in love with it.

 

[heynowirv]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

2020 we were in the midst of a pandemic, totally different circumstances in my mind.

 

[disneylandtour]

People who bought resale in 2022 when RoFR was rampant and prices went way up, would lose quite a bit if they sold now.

And there was a crazy swing in resale prices on a number of properties downward in 2023. From memory, AKV, SSR, and OKW all went way, way down for about one year (summer 2023, also while the fire sale happened with Grand Floridian direct) and have now come back up. I'm mostly under the belief that--aside from large market swings, such as with the Great Recession--you can see what's likely on the low end of a cycle and what's on the high end. Right now, BLT is on the low end--when the refurb is done, it should go back up. With all the dumping of Aulani, Aulani was on the low end (there was an Aulani sub recently for $110pp). Aulani sub if you're going to use it for points for years is a great value. CCV is on its way back up (it was low last year), but still a reasonably good buy. I'm honestly surprised how much OKW, both regular and extended, is selling for right now, especially with dues around $10. Poly is on its way down. I expect it to settle around $150, maybe a bit less. And VB is coming to the point where it will really collapse, based on very high dues.

If I had to pick things that I thought were good buys right now, I'd pick (in this order): BLT, AUL sub, CCV, Poly (if you can find a lower-end contract), and maybe something like SSR if it had double points. For some reason double points on SSR haven't much changed the overall price--and those extra should have a value of $18 to $20 each.

 

[Sandisw]

And there was a crazy swing in resale prices on a number of properties downward in 2023. From memory, AKV, SSR, and OKW all went way, way down for about one year (summer 2023, also while the fire sale happened with Grand Floridian direct) and have now come back up. I'm mostly under the belief that--aside from large market swings, such as with the Great Recession--you can see what's likely on the low end of a cycle and what's on the high end. Right now, BLT is on the low end--when the refurb is done, it should go back up. With all the dumping of Aulani, Aulani was on the low end (there was an Aulani sub recently for $110pp). Aulani sub if you're going to use it for points for years is a great value. CCV is on its way back up (it was low last year), but still a reasonably good buy. I'm honestly surprised how much OKW, both regular and extended, is selling for right now, especially with dues around $10. Poly is on its way down. I expect it to settle around $150, maybe a bit less. And VB is coming to the point where it will really collapse, based on very high dues.

If I had to pick things that I thought were good buys right now, I'd pick (in this order): BLT, AUL sub, CCV, Poly (if you can find a lower-end contract), and maybe something like SSR if it had double points. For some reason double points on SSR haven't much changed the overall price--and those extra should have a value of $18 to $20 each.

Of course, but that’s the whole point….there are so many variables in play that impact the resale that one should not in my opinion base a purchase on that what ifs.

That’s the one piece when people talk restricted resort…..if you have to sell you are going to be underwater. And that can happen with every resort, depending on why you buy and when an emergency happens.

 

[disneylandtour]

Of course, but that’s the whole point….there are so many variables in play that impact the resale that one should not in my opinion base a purchase on that what ifs.

That’s the one piece when people talk restricted resort…..if you have to sell you are going to be underwater. And that can happen with every resort, depending on why you buy and when an emergency happens.

Oh absolutely. IMO, nothing like DVC should be bought on the speculation of future income or market trends and certainly not as an investment. I'm just trying to point out where I see better values at a moment (and where prices are unusually high) to create better value--not a speculative investment. In 10 years ish, I'll retire (so long as the economy doesn't collapse), and I've been partially accumulating points to have enough for regular visits then. If I sell anything, it would simply be to swap locations. Right now, I'm thinking about selling OKW and buying more BLT (or CCV). But the number of points I have now is roughly the number I want to keep for personal use going forward. I know the usual advice is to buy where you want to stay, but I also think there's some useful advice to buy at one of the places you like to stay and to increase your number of points. Maybe not pick your first choice (which could be VGF, which is high at the moment) but pick something that might be #2 or #3 on your list, perhaps BLT. On resale, you can presently get about 25% more points for BLT than for VGF. And for some, the 25% more points at their #2 or #3 resort might create more value and enjoyment than 25% fewer points at their #1 spot. That's the only reason I'm pointing some cyclical trends.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'm curious to see how DVC handles Vero because it is quickly getting to a point where people will want to give it away or offer it extremely cheaply just to get out of the dues...

We sold our contract a year ago, and while I miss that number of points being in my portfolio, I am so glad to have gotten out of Vero while I could!

 

[disneylandtour]

I'm curious to see how DVC handles Vero because it is quickly getting to a point where people will want to give it away or offer it extremely cheaply just to get out of the dues...

We sold our contract a year ago, and while I miss that number of points being in my portfolio, I am so glad to have gotten out of Vero while I could!

It's really getting hard to justify VB even with extremely low resale prices. I recently bought Poly resale. Use per point (Purchase divided by years remaining plus current dues) is about $11.60. Use per year per point, assuming that VB sells resale for around $35 is over $17.50. From a financial standpoint, it's simply a terrible deal. Everytime you use a point it is $6 more than Poly. And there are better deals at BLT (but for me, I already had two contracts at BLT and wanted something different).

 

[CaptnJackSparrow]

Oh absolutely. IMO, nothing like DVC should be bought on the speculation of future income or market trends and certainly not as an investment. I'm just trying to point out where I see better values at a moment (and where prices are unusually high) to create better value--not a speculative investment. In 10 years ish, I'll retire (so long as the economy doesn't collapse), and I've been partially accumulating points to have enough for regular visits then. If I sell anything, it would simply be to swap locations. Right now, I'm thinking about selling OKW and buying more BLT (or CCV). But the number of points I have now is roughly the number I want to keep for personal use going forward. I know the usual advice is to buy where you want to stay, but I also think there's some useful advice to buy at one of the places you like to stay and to increase your number of points. Maybe not pick your first choice (which could be VGF, which is high at the moment) but pick something that might be #2 or #3 on your list, perhaps BLT. On resale, you can presently get about 25% more points for BLT than for VGF. And for some, the 25% more points at their #2 or #3 resort might create more value and enjoyment than 25% fewer points at their #1 spot. That's the only reason I'm pointing some cyclical trends.

I totally agree with your sentiments on BLT. The swings in price have caused us to step back in and bulk up. This is our definite SAP+ points. We enjoy staying at BLT but if we can get other exciting options at 7 months we will. So for us at the current resale price it is a no brainer. I also feel it is due to get back to the $140 range once refurb and Villains land is complete. It's on the monorail and the point chart is reasonable. In my eyes easily the best value.

 

[hhisc16]

I'm curious to see how DVC handles Vero because it is quickly getting to a point where people will want to give it away or offer it extremely cheaply just to get out of the dues...

We sold our contract a year ago, and while I miss that number of points being in my portfolio, I am so glad to have gotten out of Vero while I could!

I think this is why dvc pulled vb from the add on tool.

 

[hhisc16]

It's really getting hard to justify VB even with extremely low resale prices. I recently bought Poly resale. Use per point (Purchase divided by years remaining plus current dues) is about $11.60. Use per year per point, assuming that VB sells resale for around $35 is over $17.50. From a financial standpoint, it's simply a terrible deal. Everytime you use a point it is $6 more than Poly. And there are better deals at BLT (but for me, I already had two contracts at BLT and wanted something different).

I am curious to see the price trend of vb resale.
The 2026 dues may make another big impact when announced.

 

[Girlstar30]

My SSR sellers bought in 2021 and are selling at a substantial loss (around 25%) from what they they paid.

Maybe they are afraid that if they don't get out now it will go even lower and panic selling, but who knows.

Prices go up and down, i doubt a contract that still has 30 years left is going to keep going down and never bounce back at some points, the price of staying at a Disney resort is only going to go up.