Are you sure he said that exactly? I don't think he did. I think what he was saying is that, at this time, if you want to modify your reservation (only ones between 6/22-7/4), you can only move it to a DVC resort or FW. He noted that dates can only be changed through the end of this year since 2021 packages are not available yet. I think Pete speculated a bit, but I think John was just "reporting" what we know so far. I don't think he (or Pete) was referencing any "inside information," like was referenced in the post above.
What we're seeing right now is effectively a "roll call" of who's in and who's out for the DVC resorts-only initial reopening period. They need to get a sense of who's coming when (or just cancelling) before they can begin the process of consolidating resorts and identifying which resorts should operate and which ones shouldn't. The process of consolidating resorts would be a hefty one (a much bigger undertaking than this roll call), and they need as firm numbers as they can get to do it, so rather than just making those 6/22-7/4 guests either stick with what they've got or cancel, they're giving them some sort of option to modify (instead of them canceling and then rebooking) but doing so without committing to a "pending" resort (to avoid having to move some of these guests again). Once they've got those firmer numbers, they can begin the process of determining when which resorts should open and moving reservations. That was the original plan at least.
With that in mind, I don't know what trends they've seen or what the folks in Park Ops may be saying about capacity. Everything is subject to change, but personally, I would be shocked if at least a couple resorts didn't come online in July, given all the info/updates they've posted about CL (the only DVC with CL isn't reopening initially) and other "hotel-side" services, not to mention committing to such a prolonged closure (what if some miracle happens and a vaccine or treatment is discovered in September and tourism rebounds quickly). Also, if they were to keep every resort closed through the end of the year, they would probably still have to keep some CMs on furlough through the end of the year (they previously expected the furlough to end by October). While there are large holes to fill without CPs and IPs, there would be way too many resort CMs for the number of available roles.