NY cases are already going down since they were a “hot zone” first. (Maybe not deaths yet, but hospitalizations have been declining). Hopefully by like June it’s no longer a hot zone. I think the governor said on Sunday (ir was it Monday?) that he feels the worst is over.
It's crazy empty. A pilot just came in and ask how many people were on his flight. The answer was 5 :0
I doubt they would extend you further. That would be a logistical nightmare trying to figure out where each Passholder is from and to determine if they are from a “hot spot” or not.
If you fit a 4th order polynomial, that seems to fit quite well.I've been doing similar to you; I was running exponential regressions since mid March to predict future numbers (of cases/deaths) and in the beginning the predictions were easy and I was incredibly close to the actual values when you extrapolate the data (first two weeks of shut down). After the shut downs, the % growth dropped significantly so the regressions don't work for predicting as the curves start to flatten unless you toss the previous week from the data but I find just a % increase day to day gives a good prediction at this point because it has lowered so much. The % increases in the states has lowered substantially across the board. I find it interesting to look at how different measures affect different places in both cases and deaths. Of course everyone that has it isn't tested, but the % growth from those that are tested are likely representative of the % growth of the entire population that has it.
Hopefully trends continue, this is over soon and we all get to have our Dole Whip
Whilst I agree with your scientific reasoning, is there much point in opening the resorts if the parks aren't open? I can't imagine many people would want to go in that scenario. If there was any demand still, then maybe just open one or two of the deluxe resorts - some people might get a nice upgrade. I can't see them opening all the resorts if the parks aren't open.
Thats the next window. The July window is still possible however its closing quickly and comments by the orange county mayor saying likely no large gatherings till july/August is going to have a huge impact on when the July window closes.
Other data disputes that greatly. I can tell you thats not what the parks in Florida are being advised by health officials. They are being advised no large gatherings until July at the earliest most likely August and the window keeps moving out. Disney, uni, and sw are going to err on the side of extreme caution.
Thank goodness Disney world isn’t a dense area.
I’d hope Disney would still honor late cancelations, but I’m sure there’s enough people who would want to stay on Disney property to visit the restaurants, bars, Disney springs, golf, etc to open at least some resorts at a reduced capacity.
To june 7th
There is evidence that in outdoors settings the risk is lower. But the trouble with large events like football games is that persons are in close confinement in other aspects associated with the event, not whilst actually watching the game - for example public transport to and from the event, or packed bars drinking before and after a game (if they are anything like Pompey fans!) etc.
Opening the DVC resorts would accommodate members with expiring points. I suspect it would lead to complaints and other issues. I think DVC and deluxe resorts associated with DVC properties might open weeks before parks. Otherwise I think resorts will open at about the same time phased opening of parks occurs.
I think it's a given Disney may have to open without parades and fireworks. Might have to do away with long standby lines at attractions like FoP. Space out restaurant tables.
I referred to DS (Disney Springs). Many (most) of the establishments at DS aren't run by Disney. Calling a store manager or clerk back to work isn't rocket science. Discarding spoiled food and ordering new food for a restaurant may take a little time.
