Right, so this is my considered opinion on what could (and in some places should) happen. This might be a bit long, so I apologise in advance! If you want my summary, I think the parks will open mid-June. Now onto my longer version!
First - all business, and that includes Disney theme parks, need to get back up and running as soon as possible, because the wider impacts of a catastrophic economic downturn on the health of a nation will end up being even worse than the effects of the virus itself. All of these lockdown measures were necessary to avoid healthcare systems becoming overloaded during the first peak. Yes, there will be further peaks after lockdown measures are relaxed, but they will be lower than the initial first peak, so healthcare systems in most places should be able to cope, without the drastic measures as we have seen in this first wave. There are some places where this won't be the case, however - for example China, where the first peak wasn't particularly widespread, and this leaves the country still vulnerable - and hence why Shanghai isn't yet open.
Next, let's examine when Florida might be back open for business. Ignore the IHME models - they are not particularly helpful as many of us have said on other posts. But the lower numbers of cases and deaths per capita in Florida suggests to me that Florida may well have this under control better than some other states. It doesn't look like Florida is going to get anywhere near to ICU capacity from this - in fact, I think there is a distinct possibility that Florida may well have peaked already - there is no evidence to me in the numbers of cases or deaths of an exponential rise in Florida, which is really good news. It may take a while for the curve to come back down again, but I am more optimistic that Florida could start to relax measures sooner than some people might think.
So, I think businesses will start to open back up again during May in Florida. I can see Disney Springs shops opening first, then the restaurants, by the end of May.
Next, the resorts and parks. It is pointless opening the resorts if the parks aren't open - so both will need to open at the same time. When though? I initially thought that 1st June was overly optimistic, and thought 1st July was more realistic. But I do detect a sense that businesses want to get back to normal as soon as possible - so I think opening sometime in June is possibly viable. I would suggest mid-June is more realistic than 1st June though.
How many parks will open? This is a tricky one - you want as much social distancing as possible in the early stages of re-opening. So to maximise social distancing, you need to minimise crowd density - and the best way to do that would be to re-open all 4 parks at once. Do I think Disney will do this? No I don't. But that is what I would do. I think what Disney will actually do is open maybe 2 parks on day 1 - MK and AK. Only opening one park, even to resort guests only, would swamp that park. Opening MK and AK would at least spread out the crowds a touch, and AK is such a big park, it is perfect for social distancing. Furthermore, AK already has a lot of staff working to look after the animals. DHS could open a week or two later, and EPCOT some while after that. I think only one water park would open - my guess is Typhoon Lagoon.
Who would you admit? Initially it would be resort guests only. Then expand this to partner hotels and AP holders as time goes on (only once 3 parks minimum are open).
What about opening hours? I would extend opening hours at every park, to help spread out crowds during the day. Do I think Disney will do this though? No I don't - if anything, they might reduce hours - if they do, that would be a sign they are putting profits before safety.
What attractions would be open? To me this is a no-brainer - EVERY attraction should be open in each park at maximum capacity, to enable spreading out the crowds, and numbers of people in line. I would also modify the fastpass system into a virtual queue system, to avoid people standing in queues. I see no reason why the fireworks and parades couldn't go ahead - people standing outside are less likely to transmit this than in enclosed spaces, and with reduced numbers in the parks, it should be easier to get space between people to watch them.
What about requirements for park entry? Temperature testing I can see being in place, although isn't really that much use. But it would at least give some people some comfort. However, as a family from Scotland, who will be frying in the hot Florida summer heat, I would worry that our temperatures might be too high for entry though! Face masks have little benefit, unless they are of the respirator type, and re-usable ones are a waste of time, and could even be harmful due to contamination from continued use, from recent research done at the Health and Safety Laboratory in the UK. So IMO they shouldn't be mandated. Similarly, testing is so un-reliable at the moment, that any strategy that attempts to use testing as one of the controls should be avoided.
As I warned, sorry for the long post!
