Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Miffy]

And that's the part that makes me believe we will see a point where the government chooses the economy over the continued struggle to keep cases at a minimum. I do not think the July 15 tax extension was simply a matter of adding 90 days. They wouldn't want taxes to be due right when people are returning to work. I think they have decided that there is a finite period of time during which the fight against the spread outweighs the need to preserve the financial stability of the population.

If this does happen, then expect a brand-new epidemic, way worse than what we've got now. I know this isn't Disney-specific, but I didn't want to let this go.

 

[Krandor]

Your math is off. Traditionally the studio that created the film gets 55% of ticket prices, whereas the theater gets 45%. So if Disney were to release a film direct to Disney+ and charge $22, they'd break even per each family of 4 who otherwise would've gone to the movie theater and paid $10 per individual. They would be ahead on smaller families, and behind on larger ones.

Now of course such an approach screws the theaters. But if the mass quarantines last for any prolonged period, I fully expect direct to streaming release to become commonplace. It could in fact be the death knell for the public cinema industry, even after COVID subsides.

Wasn't meant to be an exact calculation.

If they did decide to release something like Black Window on D+, it wouldn't be $9.95.

 

[jknezek]

I think they could get $20. Any couple going to theaters is going to spend more than that. Granted not everyone has a max home setup, but enough of us probably come close to make it worth it. I'd pay $20 for Black Widow if my wife wanted to see it. A night at the movies usually costs us over $100 by the time we have a moderate dinner and a babysitter. My own popcorn and picking up some food would cut that in half or more, and for Disney would almost double the money they get off me.

It could happen. I doubt they'd have billion dollar releases, but given the percentage of revenue they'll keep it might cover costs. Of course it only works so long as social distancing stays in effect. Once people can start inviting people over agin the model blows up quickly.

 

[Spridell]

And that's the part that makes me believe we will see a point where the government chooses the economy over the continued struggle to keep cases at a minimum. I do not think the July 15 tax extension was simply a matter of adding 90 days. They wouldn't want taxes to be due right when people are returning to work. I think they have decided that there is a finite period of time during which the fight against the spread outweighs the need to preserve the financial stability of the population.

This is most likely what will happen.

I have been talking to a lot of friends the last 2 weeks that are in finance and they have all said the same thing. There will come a time (that time NO ONE knows) where the economy being closed will cause more damage than the actual virus. Things will be slow to open back up but its going to happen sooner than people might think. And I think you are right that July date was probably the date that was given internally where most things will be ALLOWED to open again. It is not a perfect solution but it will be unavoidable.

 

[Krandor]

This is most likely what will happen.

I have been talking to a lot of friends the last 2 weeks that are in finance and they have all said the same thing. There will come a time (that time NO ONE knows) where the economy being closed will cause more damage than the actual virus. Things will be slow to open back up but its going to happen sooner than people might think. And I think you are right that July date was probably the date that was given internally where most things will be ALLOWED to open again. It is not a perfect solution but it will be unavoidable.

The thing is even if things are allowed to open will people go? I did go to a bar I normally go to last thursday when it was allowed to be open (not anymore) and it was completely dead. Maybe 4 people at the bar (when normally on thursday it would be packed) and people at maybe 2 tables. So even when things reopen it doesn't guarantee people will go.

I was scheduled for mid-april for star wars and I love that race and wanted to go but I did keep asking myself that if the race was on and it was open SHOULD I go. I knew the answer was no but I'm not sure I wouldn't have gone though.


So if things start opening back up before the public feels it is safe they still may not get many customers. I don't know how the endgame of this plays out until we start seeing things peak and start to go down.

 

[Spridell]

The thing is even if things are allowed to open will people go? I did go to a bar I normally go to last thursday when it was allowed to be open (not anymore) and it was completely dead. Maybe 4 people at the bar (when normally on thursday it would be packed) and people at maybe 2 tables. So even when things reopen it doesn't guarantee people will go.

I was scheduled for mid-april for star wars and I love that race and wanted to go but I did keep asking myself that if the race was on and it was open SHOULD I go. I knew the answer was no but I'm not sure I wouldn't have gone though.


So if things start opening back up before the public feels it is safe they still may not get many customers. I don't know how the endgame of this plays out until we start seeing things peak and start to go down.

100% agree with everything you said.

THis is going to last mentally for many for a very very long time. After 9/11 people were afraid of planes for a VERY long time. Same will be this time. Cruises, crowded places, etc.....

Things will open back up, but like you said who knows when things will get back to the way there were just a month ago.

 

[Miffy]

100% agree with everything you said.

THis is going to last mentally for many for a very very long time. After 9/11 people were afraid of planes for a VERY long time. Same will be this time. Cruises, crowded places, etc.....

Things will open back up, but like you said who knows when things will get back to the way there were just a month ago.

It's not just about how people feel about this. It's about the actual virus itself, which, unless it's really something out of our earthly experience, doesn't care what your mental state is. Although there's a sci-fi novel in there somewhere.

 

[Krandor]

100% agree with everything you said.

THis is going to last mentally for many for a very very long time. After 9/11 people were afraid of planes for a VERY long time. Same will be this time. Cruises, crowded places, etc.....

Things will open back up, but like you said who knows when things will get back to the way there were just a month ago.

Yeah and business will have to try to go the extra mile. When i went to that bar thursday when the bartender didn't have a customer to deal with (which was often) they were cleaning which did make me feel better.

And to tie to 9/11, I was on the other side of the country when 9/11 happened so I was flying back a few days after airports reopened and walking into the airport and seeing marines with guns made me feel safer. Would they have stopped 9/11? probably not but them being there still made me feel better and safer.

And businesses when things reopen (Disney included to keep on topic) are going to have to implement measures to make people "feel" better and some we will likely argue about if they are effective at doing anything or not but they will still need to happen if it makes people feel safer.

 

[Spridell]

Yeah and business will have to try to go the extra mile. When i went to that bar thursday when the bartender didn't have a customer to deal with (which was often) they were cleaning which did make me feel better.

And to tie to 9/11, I was on the other side of the country when 9/11 happened so I was flying back a few days after airports reopened and walking into the airport and seeing marines with guns made me feel safer. Would they have stopped 9/11? probably not but them being there still made me feel better and safer.

And businesses when things reopen (Disney included to keep on topic) are going to have to implement measures to make people "feel" better and some we will likely argue about if they are effective at doing anything or not but they will still need to happen if it makes people feel safer.

I can totally see a place like Disney world taking peoples temperatures before they enter the parks.

I actually think that's what they will do in the beginning.

 

[Miffy]

I can totally see a place like Disney world taking peoples temperatures before they enter the parks.

I actually think that's what they will do in the beginning.

Unfortunately, asymptomatic people carry the virus just as well--maybe better, since they don't know they're carriers--as people who have symptoms.

 

[Spridell]

Unfortunately, asymptomatic people carry the virus just as well--maybe better, since they don't know they're carriers--as people who have symptoms.

This all ties in with the above posts. People are going to have to realize things will open back up with people on the streets that could be infected. Unfortunately that will have to be a way of life for a while. WHich is why things will probably be slow for a while even after they open back up.

 

[Krandor]

Unfortunately, asymptomatic people carry the virus just as well--maybe better, since they don't know they're carriers--as people who have symptoms.

That is true but doing that will help people feel that disney is doing what they can to protect them from people that are infected. it isn't perfect but better then nothing.

 

[rteetz]

The Wheel, Madame Tussauds, and Sea Life Aquarium Closing Temporarily Due to Coronavirus Outbreak

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Wasn't meant to be an exact calculation.

If they did decide to release something like Black Window on D+, it wouldn't be $9.95.

Well, they were charging $19.99 for Onward digital downloads (not via Disney+) and that had already been in the theaters for a few weeks.

So anything that would go straight to download I think would be at least that much, maybe more

 

[Amymouse13]

This is most likely what will happen.

I have been talking to a lot of friends the last 2 weeks that are in finance and they have all said the same thing. There will come a time (that time NO ONE knows) where the economy being closed will cause more damage than the actual virus. Things will be slow to open back up but its going to happen sooner than people might think. And I think you are right that July date was probably the date that was given internally where most things will be ALLOWED to open again. It is not a perfect solution but it will be unavoidable.

Possible, but also possible no one wants to say a really far off date and just keep giving a guesstimate. I think they will look for the number of cases to start to drop like China did, but then if they start going way up again they may need to restrict again. Though, maybe at that point folks running show will handle things differently... Maybe...

 

[wareagle57]

Highly unlikely. And if for some reason it is opened, more likely it'll still be resorts only, or minimal stuff in the parks.

What are you basing this on? I think it’s likely the parks will be open in June. Not at full capacity but open

Cedar Point announced they won't be opening til at least mid May if not later. So I would imagine most other parks will follow suit. I have a feeling this will go on til mid summer. This isn't going to go away that quickly.

Cedar Point is a seasonal park. It makes sense to just delay opening until a date they feel they can be confident in. But year round places like Disney will be looking for the as soon as possible date.

 

[Remy is Up]

What are you basing this on? I think it’s likely the parks will be open in June. Not at full capacity but open




Cedar Point is a seasonal park. It makes sense to just delay opening until a date they feel they can be confident in. But year round places like Disney will be looking for the as soon as possible date.

Take a look at Italy and if you still believe with the current rate of reported cases in florida increasing exponentially that its june. You are kidding yourself. Disney knows business doesnt override health and the fact that people wont feel safe. Even in June. Itll be july/august. When you live here in florida you see the reality of things.

 

[Krandor]

Possible, but also possible no one wants to say a really far off date and just keep giving a guesstimate. I think they will look for the number of cases to start to drop like China did, but then if they start going way up again they may need to restrict again. Though, maybe at that point folks running show will handle things differently... Maybe...

I think the issue right now is the USA really didn't take this seriously until about a week ago. That is when we started to cancel and shut things down. With a 7-14 day incumation period we an't yet really see what effect if any that is having.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Counterpoint to the parks will be able to re-open at something close to normal this summer:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/m...-30-25-fed-e2-80-99s-bullard-says/ar-BB11y3ER
That's the President of one of the Federal Reserve Banks forecasting 30 percent unemployment and a 50 percent drop in GDP. For reference the highest unemployment ever reached since record-keeping began in the history of our country is 24.9 percent at the height of the Great Depression. If we get anything even close to that forecast there is no way a place like Disney, even if it goes through bankruptcy and restructuring and is bought out by some other company and re-opened, is opening at anything like the current levels it operates at now. Nobody will have money for leisure like that.

 

[Palendat]

I am fairly certain that until a vaccine is widespread, Disney will not be reopening. Further, I wouldn't take the chance of going if I felt I may get sick half way through my vacation (I understand that there is never zero risk, but you know what I mean).

As to the economic hit, the world will look very different after this. "Disney World - brought to you by Apple"?????