Crowds this Aug vs. "typical" Aug??

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Hi DISers!!

We just got back from a terrific Aug 10-21 WDW trip, and as DVC members we're already thinking about whether we want to book Aug again next year! This year was our first full August trip, and we didn't know what to really expect wrt crowds. We ended up feeling like it wasn't all that different from trips over Columbus Day, for instance.

I guess my main question is: what is the best way to gauge crowds observed this year as compared with a "more typical Aug" to help us decide whether to go in Aug again?

Is UG actuals the best way to tell?? How accurate do we think these are??

• I looked up UG's observed crowd listings over the period that we were there.
• They forecast an average of 8.3, and say they observed an average of 4.8 over the period.
• I have a hard time believing what we experienced was as low as a 4.8, but somehow doubt it was as high as an 8.3!

Any thoughts always welcome!!

 

[lovethattink]

I think the Olympics and possibly Zika kept away many tour groups that visit in August. We definitely noticed less people.

 

[mikedoyleblogger]

Several of the usual-suspect Disney fan blogs say this year's big ticket and pass price increases dampened attendance as well. On Disney's recent earnings call, they actually reported an attendance dip for the first time in years.

 

[Disneylover99]

We've been in the parks daily since Aug. 18th, so far crowds seem about the same as the past few years during this time frame.

 

[ariane37]

We've been in the parks daily since Aug. 18th, so far crowds seem about the same as the past few years during this time frame.

This is good to hear! We've been down the past 2 years late August & will be flying in Saturday. A friend flew in this morning and said the lines at MCO for ME were way longer than she's ever seen, having gone the same week the last 6 years. Haven't heard from her since though so don't know how she found resort or MK today.

 

[disneymom0104]

I think the new TP formula for crowds (started Aug. 1) is less accurate than ever. They have been WAY off every day. But I know people feel better going in thinking the crowds will be an 8 and having them say it was only a 4. It actually makes me wonder about the predictions of 2's and 3's- I feel like the opposite will happen. I also suspect the "new" 4's are similar to the "old" 8's.

 

[Disneylover99]

This is good to hear! We've been down the past 2 years late August & will be flying in Saturday. A friend flew in this morning and said the lines at MCO for ME were way longer than she's ever seen, having gone the same week the last 6 years. Haven't heard from her since though so don't know how she found resort or MK today.

There has also been zero rain since Aug. 16th. It's weird.

 

[oceanmarina]

I think the Olympics and possibly Zika kept away many tour groups that visit in August. We definitely noticed less people.

We were there august 9 - 16, most crowd levels (according g to my lines app) were 7, 8 & 9. We have gone every august for the past 6 years. I felt that this year and last year were really crowded. Long waits for everything and hard to navigate the crowds with all the people.

Lovethattink, aren't the tour groups usually there in July? - while we go every august we usually do t get there till the 10th or so. Are there a lot of tour groups the first two weeks in August?

 

[ariane37]

There has also been zero rain since Aug. 16th. It's weird.

That IS weird

 

[stormer]

We were there Aug. 3-15 and it was much less crowded than our previous August trips. We were very surprised at the low crowds.

 

[Disney Khi]

I don't usually come in August, but I have been pleasantly surprised by the low crowds this week. I was really worried because I had us going to two easy wow least recommended parks, and we haven't had problems. The two first timers with me have remarked that it is not as crowded as they had expected. I was last here in June, and the crowds were low then, too.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I think the new TP formula for crowds (started Aug. 1) is less accurate than ever. They have been WAY off every day.

Interesting... Is there info somewhere where I can read about this new formula you speak of...??

New formula for FORECASTING, or for determining what was actually OBSERVED?

 

[jsrj21]

We were at WDW from Aug 10-21 as well and the crowds were significantly lower than years past. We go every August because of my job [teacher] and my son's now college schedule. We were able to find a great viewing for Illuminations at 8:45pm....very hard to do during our previous stays. We watched Wishes from in front of the Walt statue at the hub in front of the castle [never done that before]. We watched Star Wars fireworks show at HS [twice] from a great viewing area just behind a private section that was roped off. One time, we arrived at the park at 9:20 from dinner at Boma. I was shocked and fist bumping my wife and son that we were able to get that spot. Thoughts on the reasoning for this run abound but we spent 12 days at WDW this summer and we did so much that I've been recovering for the last two days. Plus the weather, IMO was great. It rained a few days at the beginning of our stay but for the majority of our trip it was not as hot and no rain. It's funny because I think our last day [Aug 21] was the hottest....but we were still sad to leave....

 

[disneymom0104]

Interesting... Is there info somewhere where I can read about this new formula you speak of...??

New formula for FORECASTING, or for determining what was actually OBSERVED?

http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/26/wdw-cc-update/

http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/29/summer-crowd-and-wait-time-trends-at-disney-world/

 

[shalom]

http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/26/wdw-cc-update/

Interesting. Looking at the MK breakdown, although they say that the average is down by a minute, for most rides it's up -- it's the character meets, Barnstormer, Astro Orbiter, Laugh Floor, and Tomorrowland Speedway pulling it back a bit. Before I saw that, I was thinking a lot of people who go frequently, but not every year, are skipping this year because they've seen the new stuff at the MK and they're waiting for AK and HS to get their act together. Now I wonder if their speculation that the murder, Pulse club massacre, and alligator attack have convinced people not to go this year is a bigger factor than I'd assumed, but I'm also thinking most of those who backed off because they started seeing Orlando as dangerous are parents of younger ones. Although I'm sure the price increase is pertinent as well.

 

[JennyDrake]

I've been the second ish week of August for 10, consecutive years. I was there this year the 13-16 and I thought the crowds were a bit lighter than usual.

 

[jkh36619]

We went 17-21. Crowds did seem a bit lower. However We were in HS on Saturday the 20th and it was very crowded.

 

[CharleneR]

We were there from the 13th - 20th and it was the first trip in August. We've always gone at generally much lower crowd times so I was expecting wall to wall people, but was pleasantly surprised at the crowd levels.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Thanks all for posting your experiences! Hmmm... I was hoping against all reason that I'd hear "Nope... this is about how Aug always is!!", and I'd be totally comfortable booking Aug again next year!!

I must admit that selfishly, I would like "higher per guest spending and somewhat lower attendance" as an equilibrium point for Aug... I guess only time will tell... and by then, I'll have already booked!

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/26/wdw-cc-update/

http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/29/summer-crowd-and-wait-time-trends-at-disney-world/

OMG!! As a data person I LOVE these posts!!!!!!!!!!! Thank you so much for sharing!!!!

The following makes me not too worried about booking Aug 2017...

"Based on our analysis of posted and actual wait times for rides at Walt Disney World, we think attendance is lower to this point in summer for Epcot, Disney’s Hollywood Studios, and the Animal Kingdom, and higher at the Magic Kingdom, versus the same period in 2015. Overall, we think attendance is flat to slightly lower throughout Walt Disney World."​

I can deal with flat to slightly lower! If they had said drastically lower, I'd think twice!

THANK YOU AGAIN DISers!!!