Crowd Outlook

[Dcgc28]

Disney will bounce back this fall and winter and into 24. Been saying it on repeat and the parties selling out is just the beginning.

This summer was tough on the entertainment industry in general. We felt it at Topgolf. All places that are entertainment places felt a drop from last year but it’ll all bounce back late this year and into 24. I know people love to doom and gloom and go woke is broke and all that jazz.

But it was more than just Disney.

 

[clarker99]

I received some McDonald's coupons in the mail. I hope the fast food industry is okay.

 

[Leigh L]

To add to what Brian said, non-subscribers not being able to view tweets started a month or so ago, well before the "X" transition. If you click on the date in Scott's tweet you can view it but not the responses. If you click on his name, you can see a random selection of tweets from the past few years. IOW, it's all bolloxed up.

Ah ok, thank you @Brian Noble and @irlandaise
I'm not seeing the tweets preview in the forums like I used to for some reason, but when I clicked the links I could still see the tweet. Now only very recently when I click links it brings me to the log in page.

 

[Dcgc28]

I received some McDonald's coupons in the mail. I hope the fast food industry is okay.

Funny enough fast food is doing well because full service is down, aka the entertainment spots. It's grown around 7%

 

[Jrb1979]

Disney will bounce back this fall and winter and into 24. Been saying it on repeat and the parties selling out is just the beginning.

This summer was tough on the entertainment industry in general. We felt it at Topgolf. All places that are entertainment places felt a drop from last year but it’ll all bounce back late this year and into 24. I know people love to doom and gloom and go woke is broke and all that jazz.

But it was more than just Disney.

I don't think they are bouncing back in fall and winter. From a poster over at Wdwmagic "Available inventory dropped considerably for November and December for several resorts over the past week.

Take that as you will, but I doubt there was a huge influx of new bookings."

"Crescent Lake, Monorail Loop, and south end values - in addition to 2 moderates - all impacted."

Sounds like they are taking a bunch of rooms offline.

 

[Brian Noble]

Cedar Fair (one of the only pure-play amusement/theme/water park operators) announced a YoY attendance drop of 6% company-wide in 2Q23 vs. 2Q22, despite having more operating days chain-wide.

Sea World also reported a very small decrease in attendance YoY for both the quarter and YTD--about 1-2% down for the quarter, with a negligible drop YTD.

https://coasterbuzz.com/Forums/Topi...ecord-year-for-revenue-net-income-down#988106

However, they also opened a new park during the quarter and I did not read the report to get a sense for same-park attendance. Presumably, it is down more than the 1-2%.

 

[Jrb1979]

Cedar Fair (one of the only pure-play amusement/theme/water park operators) announced a YoY attendance drop of 6% company-wide in 2Q23 vs. 2Q22, despite having more operating days chain-wide.

https://coasterbuzz.com/News/cedar-fair-net-revenue-ebitda-and-attendance-down-so-far-in-2023

Q3 plus October is where the money is for these parks, so we will see what happens, but July is down 4%. (I did my part by visiting Cedar Point last month.)

From their report a lot of the reason attendance is down is due to Carowinds, and the California parks. Cedar Point and Kings Island have been up in attendance this year so far.

 

[RivShore]

From their report a lot of the reason attendance is down is due to Carowinds, and the California parks. Cedar Point and Kings Island have been up in attendance this year so far.

But overall Cedar Fair is trending down and falling short of estimates:

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...hoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

During the quarter, we entertained 7.4 million guests and generated net revenues of 501 million, compared with 7.8 million guests and net revenues of 509 million in the second quarter of 2022.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cedar-fair-l-p-fun-133044300.html

• Attendance: 7397 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of 7888.33 thousand.
• In-park per capita spending: $61.46 versus $62.17 estimated by two analysts on average.
• Net revenues- Admissions: $242.55 million compared to the $259.27 million average estimate based on four analysts. The reported number represents a change of -4.3% year over year.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Is it odd that outside of the Halloween night, the MNSSHP is not sold out any other day in Oct, and is only sold out one night in Sept? Could it be a potential canary in the coal mine when we're looking at crowds moving into the fall, or is it still too early to tell?

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I don't think they are bouncing back in fall and winter. From a poster over at Wdwmagic "Available inventory dropped considerably for November and December for several resorts over the past week.

Take that as you will, but I doubt there was a huge influx of new bookings."

"Crescent Lake, Monorail Loop, and south end values - in addition to 2 moderates - all impacted."

Sounds like they are taking a bunch of rooms offline.

I think the beginning of this year still had pull because of the 50th, once that ended crowds have taken a nose dive. I just don't see it improving anytime soon. I just wish sites like Touring plans would have the gall to start updating their crowd outlooks

 

[HokieRaven5]

Is it odd that outside of the Halloween night, the MNSSHP is not sold out any other day in Oct, and is only sold out one night in Sept? Could it be a potential canary in the coal mine when we're looking at crowds moving into the fall, or is it still too early to tell?

It’s not unusual, here’s the sellout dates (IN Bold) for each of the 2022 MNSSHP Days:

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

It’s not unusual, here’s the sellout dates (IN Bold) for each of the 2022 MNSSHP Days:

View attachment 784027

so we should start seeing a trend of sell outs in the next few weeks. do you happen to have the information pre pandemic. i feel like last year was such an anomaly that you can't extrapolate too much from it

 

[fatmanatee]

Thought I saw an article saying that more dates were sold out at this point than they were last year. I wouldn't read much into it though.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Thought I saw an article saying that more dates were sold out at this point than they were last year. I wouldn't read much into it though.

Yeah, from what was posted earlier in the thread. 5 days were sold out as opposed to 3 last year. Doesn't seem to represent enough of a change to draw any inferences

 

[Suger Mag]

so we should start seeing a trend of sell outs in the next few weeks. do you happen to have the information pre pandemic. i feel like last year was such an anomaly that you can't extrapolate too much from it

2022 sold out all parties

2021 was the Boo Bash and not the same event

2020 MNSSHP was cancelled

2019 MNSSHP: 13 party dates sold out
Dates
August 16, 20, 23, 27 & 30
September 2, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24, 27 & 29
October 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, 25, 27, 29 & 31
November 1

2019 Sold Out Dates: 9/22 (9/22), 9/27 (9/24), 9/29 (9/25), 10/1 (9/28), 10/8 (10/7), 10/10(10/8), 10/11(10/8), 10/14 (10/13), 10/17 (10/17), 10/24 (10/19), 10/25 (10/24), 10/31 (10/8), 11/1 (10/29 )


2018 MNSSHP: 5 party dates sold out
Dates
August 17, 24, 28 & 31
September 3, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16, 18, 21, 23, 25, 28 & 30
October 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25, 26, 28, 30 &31

Sold Out Dates: 8/17 (8/17), 9/14 (9/14), 10/4 (10/4), 10/30 (10/29) & 10/31 (10/12)

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

2022 sold out all parties

2021 was the Boo Bash and not the same event

2020 MNSSHP was cancelled

2019 MNSSHP: 13 party dates sold out
Dates
August 16, 20, 23, 27 & 30
September 2, 6, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 20, 22, 24, 27 & 29
October 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, 25, 27, 29 & 31
November 1

2019 Sold Out Dates: 9/22 (9/22), 9/27 (9/24), 9/29 (9/25), 10/1 (9/28), 10/8 (10/7), 10/10(10/8), 10/11(10/8), 10/14 (10/13), 10/17 (10/17), 10/24 (10/19), 10/25 (10/24), 10/31 (10/8), 11/1 (10/29 )


2018 MNSSHP: 5 party dates sold out
Dates
August 17, 24, 28 & 31
September 3, 7, 9, 11, 14, 16, 18, 21, 23, 25, 28 & 30
October 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 25, 26, 28, 30 &31

Sold Out Dates: 8/17 (8/17), 9/14 (9/14), 10/4 (10/4), 10/30 (10/29) & 10/31 (10/12)

I wonder if that means they aren’t putting as many tickets out into the market as they were pre pandemic. It would explain the higher costs, more money= less people

 

[Jrb1979]

I think the beginning of this year still had pull because of the 50th, once that ended crowds have taken a nose dive. I just don't see it improving anytime soon. I just wish sites like Touring plans would have the gall to start updating their crowd outlooks

Agreed. The other thing is there isn't much coming to look forward to anytime soon.

An add on to what I posted earlier. This is a post and a response from 2 posters over at Wdwmagic.

"ok, what’s with this? I wanted to potentially book a trip for two adults 11/9-13. I had three resort choices, all over $700 a night. Is it really that sold out those days?"

"Going back to my earlier post, LOTS of inventory was removed for this fall and winter over the past week or so... giving the appearance of higher occupancy and greater demand. When you see empty hallways and fewer housekeeping carts, it starts to add up."

 

[Suger Mag]

I wonder if that means they aren’t putting as many tickets out into the market as they were pre pandemic. It would explain the higher costs, more money= less people

That info we will not be privy to, AFAIK they dont release how many tickets are sold for any of these events/years, so it is always speculative, or based on 'in the moment crowd analysis'. Some people maintain they sell different amounts for different dates, but only those on the 'inside' really know.

But these numbers do not surprise me, at least for Aug and Sept.. there have been some heavy room discounts... 4 day ticket special ... and the Florida rates specials ...that run through Sept, so it does not surprise me that the tickets are selling well for the Aug and Sept parties... be interesting to see what October is like.

 

[Jrb1979]

That info we will not be privy to, AFAIK they dont release how many tickets are sold for any of these events/years, so it is always speculative, or based on 'in the moment crowd analysis'. Some people maintain they sell different amounts for different dates, but only those on the 'inside' really know.

But these numbers do not surprise me, at least for Aug and Sept.. there have been some heavy room discounts... 4 day ticket special ... and the Florida rates specials ...that run through Sept, so it does not surprise me that the tickets are selling well for the Aug and Sept parties... be interesting to see what October is like.

I will be interesting to see what the sales will be like. Especially considering they are taking blocks of rooms offline as they are not being filled

 

[Suger Mag]

I will be interesting to see what the sales will be like. Especially considering they are taking blocks of rooms offline as they are not being filled

Why do you say they are taking blocks of room offline and how do you know? Did I miss something?