Crowd calendars wildly different

[ScrappyTam]

I've been trying to keep track of the crowd calendars for my trip in 2 weeks. The 2 I've been looking at are touring plans & undercover tourist. I'm wondering why they are wildly different for that week.

Touring plans has been pretty good lately, but according to their website, they predicted a Level 3 day yesterday, but in actuality, it was a 10 day.

That's just such a huge difference. I guess I'm getting worried that the crowds will be far different than what I'm expecting.

 

[monkyby87]

Brace yourself; the flood gates of posts about crowd calendars and their accuracy/inaccuracy will be coming.

In reality, crowd calendars are becoming a thing of the past. Quite literally. They've typically used historical data combined with current happenings to make forecasts. But there have been so many changes going on at Disney that it's just too hard to predict anymore. Aside from holidays being busy (which is true every year), nothing is sure anymore. You have EEMH, regular EMH, DAH, more tickets being sold for parties, etc. There's just no such thing as an accurate calendar anymore.

My suggestion is to not worry about the calendars. WDW will be busy. There's no way around that as there really isn't much of a slow season anymore. Plus, one persons 3 is another persons 7...so just plan for it to be busy and make the most of your trip.

 

[Nancyg56]

I use the TP crowd calendar to plan an outline of my trip, but that's it. I don't thnk any calendar can help to predict an accurate crowd number. Plan for busy.

 

[Klayfish]

Brace yourself; the flood gates of posts about crowd calendars and their accuracy/inaccuracy will be coming.

LOL, love it! I'm one of those who has been opening the flood gates on these things for years. There should be a sticky post somewhere about these things. OP, yeah, to put it politely they're not worth the internet space they're written on, 100% snake oil.

This is one of the things I hate most about them. They make people worried or scared for no reason whatsoever.

 

[Upatnoon]

I've been trying to keep track of the crowd calendars for my trip in 2 weeks. The 2 I've been looking at are touring plans & undercover tourist. I'm wondering why they are wildly different for that week.

Touring plans has been pretty good lately, but according to their website, they predicted a Level 3 day yesterday, but in actuality, it was a 10 day.

That's just such a huge difference. I guess I'm getting worried that the crowds will be far different than what I'm expecting.

How you tour the parks to maximize your time is the key, not a meaningless number.

Know how to use FP+, rope drop and late-night to your advantage. Take a look at easywdw.com for some excellent, practical and free guides on how to tour.

 

[RealBlast3]

I have found them to be generally accurate whenever I have used them. I have used undercover tourist and easywdw in the past. I used UT again this year for my upcoming December trip. I mean, I don't go crazy but I just try to avoid the park that had the worst rating for that day. Other than that, I pick whatever park I want.

And one thing is always true - avoid Magic Kingdom on Mondays since that is when most people tend to start their vacations and the place they pick to visit most.

And generally speaking, just try to get to your park as early as possible and plan on doing the most popular attractions in the morning (the ones that you don't have a fast-pass for).

I find, no offense, to some of the posters here, that it is actually some of the posts/threads here talking about how frighteningly insane the crowds in Disney are on whatever day to be more scare-inducing than the various crowd calendar sites - they actually help calm me down!

I mean, I have been going to Disney almost every year over the last decade and have gone at different times, and since I have used those sites that give guidance on what are the best weeks to visit Disney, I have found my visits to Disney just fine, in terms of crowd control. What's always true is all the parks get "busy" around lunch time which is why it's good to take a break then and have lunch or a rest or a swim and take it easy then and/or plan your fast passes for that period. And basically, I have always avoided holiday weeks and the summer. If you do that, it's honestly not that bad as long as you are prepared for some level of crowd discomfort.

 

[yorkieteacher]

I find, no offense, to some of the posters here, that it is actually some of the posts/threads here talking about how frighteningly insane the crowds in Disney are on whatever day to be more scare-inducing than the various crowd calendar sites - they actually help calm me down! end quote-

I try to remember that this community reflects all type personalities from any general population-from optimists to pessimists, from scoffers to encouragers. alarmists to people who are calmer. I try to look over the range of answers. I have been needlessly upset and worried by some posts a few times, but I guess that beats expecting all sunshine and roses and then finding some thorns! I have found, through the years, some posters I feel I can "take to the bank" better than others, but I am not naming names! They seem to reflect the middle ground better. But all in all, we are just sharing opinions! Which I do find very helpful.......

 

[Krios16!]

Brace yourself; the flood gates of posts about crowd calendars and their accuracy/inaccuracy will be coming.

In reality, crowd calendars are becoming a thing of the past. Quite literally. They've typically used historical data combined with current happenings to make forecasts. But there have been so many changes going on at Disney that it's just too hard to predict anymore. Aside from holidays being busy (which is true every year), nothing is sure anymore. You have EEMH, regular EMH, DAH, more tickets being sold for parties, etc. There's just no such thing as an accurate calendar anymore.

My suggestion is to not worry about the calendars. WDW will be busy. There's no way around that as there really isn't much of a slow season anymore. Plus, one persons 3 is another persons 7...so just plan for it to be busy and make the most of your trip.

I couldn't agree with this more! We just came back from our MNSSHP trip and to us the crowds were not that bad. The crowd calendars (UT) was off by a bit but nothing we couldn't manage. I was that person that would plan out our trip to the T but this trip we just had fun and enjoyed the moment (with some must do items of course) and this was our best trip this far! Also the night we went to MNSSHP we heard a lot of complaints about crowds and how their group didn't get to enjoy much but we meet jack and sally, watched the parade, fireworks, stage show all from the hub, received masses amounts of candy, and rode tons of rides. We had a list of things we wanted to do but I went in with the expectation that if we did not complete everything it wouldn't ruin my trip. Its really all in the execution and expectation. Expect it to be busy but plan accordingly. ❤

 

[Klayfish]

And one thing is always true - avoid Magic Kingdom on Mondays since that is when most people tend to start their vacations and the place they pick to visit most.

And generally speaking, just try to get to your park as early as possible and plan on doing the most popular attractions in the morning (the ones that you don't have a fast-pass for).

I have always avoided holiday weeks and the summer. If you do that, it's honestly not that bad as long as you are prepared for some level of crowd discomfort.

To me, this is also a great example that so much of this is subjective anyway. Not saying you're wrong, because that's your opinion and your style, but my subjective thoughts are different. I don't think MK is more crowded on Mondays. If anything, it's Saturday or Sunday, but even that isn't a huge difference. I also don't subscribe to the need to get to the park early and do popular attractions in the morning. It's fine if you want, but not necessary. Summer is actually a "slow" season at WDW...of course "slow" is a relative term, but it's less busy than other times of the year.

WDW is the most popular tourist attraction in the US and the most popular amusement park in the world (if I recall). You can't go in expecting an empty park, no matter what time of year. Certain seasons/weeks are busier than others, but they all have relatively speaking large crowds.

 

[Ermise]

I've been trying to keep track of the crowd calendars for my trip in 2 weeks. The 2 I've been looking at are touring plans & undercover tourist. I'm wondering why they are wildly different for that week.

Touring plans has been pretty good lately, but according to their website, they predicted a Level 3 day yesterday, but in actuality, it was a 10 day.

That's just such a huge difference. I guess I'm getting worried that the crowds will be far different than what I'm expecting.

It is also important to note that the Touring Plans crowd calendar is based on predicted wait times vs. actual wait times. As you mentioned, Magic Kingdom was predicted to be a "3" but was a "10" on Monday and it seems like that was due to several of the outside rides having closures throughout the day, maybe due to rain? Astro Orbiter, Barnstormer, Dumbo, Jungle Cruise, Aladdin Magic Carpets, Mine Train, Splash Mountain, and Tomorrowland Speedway were all down at some point which pushes crowds to the indoor attractions making those waits longer than expected. It doesn't necessarily mean the park was more crowded than expected.

Another key point is the difference between a "3" and a "10" may not actually be that big of a difference. For instance a predicted wait time of 24 minutes for Astro Orbiter is a "3" - adding 13 minutes to that wait time makes it a "10".

As mentioned previously, don't let the numbers scare you. Having a good plan for the day makes any day manageable. We've had very enjoyable, productive days at parks and later have been surprised to see they were a "10".

 

[dreynolds1982]

Yeah I use them as a general guide for structuring my trip but definitely do not take them as gospel and never worry or dwell on the number. As others have said, I just assume it's going to be busy on any given day, but I've also been going to the parks long enough now that I know that even on the busiest days, you can still get A LOT done and make the most of it. Maximize FP (incl refresh), try to work around times that other people are doing other things (in the morning...the before 10-11 am rule still works really well, during parades, during fireworks, etc.) Also, and this one to me is hugely important, know when to take a break, step out of a park or into a bar (ahh good ole World Showcase), and get a breather from the crowds. By doing this during the busiest times of the day, it really does slow things down a bit and take the pressure off.

It's good to have a plan and think things through ahead of time, but be flexible, understand that anything can happen on any given day, and just roll with it, and all will be well. Tho some people may not agree, WDW can still be a magical place! It just takes a little more work than it used to

 

[SaintsManiac]

Ignore them.

 

[focusondisney]

It is also important to note that the Touring Plans crowd calendar is based on predicted wait times vs. actual wait times. As you mentioned, Magic Kingdom was predicted to be a "3" but was a "10" on Monday and it seems like that was due to several of the outside rides having closures throughout the day, maybe due to rain? Astro Orbiter, Barnstormer, Dumbo, Jungle Cruise, Aladdin Magic Carpets, Mine Train, Splash Mountain, and Tomorrowland Speedway were all down at some point which pushes crowds to the indoor attractions making those waits longer than expected. It doesn't necessarily mean the park was more crowded than expected.

Another key point is the difference between a "3" and a "10" may not actually be that big of a difference. For instance a predicted wait time of 24 minutes for Astro Orbiter is a "3" - adding 13 minutes to that wait time makes it a "10".

As mentioned previously, don't let the numbers scare you. Having a good plan for the day makes any day manageable. We've had very enjoyable, productive days at parks and later have been surprised to see they were a "10".

These are really good points. I do check Touring Plans when I’m planning my trips. But more as another opinion & guide to historical crowd patterns than a definitive source. TP crowd calendars are based on certain ride wait times in the middle of the day. We don’t go on many of those rides anymore. Plus we prefer to be in the parks in the mornings, no peak of the afternoon days for us. So we aren’t really touring the rides or times they are predicting. And Disney changes things up all the time, from park hours to staffing patterns, so plans made months ahead may be worthless anyway.

And none of the crowd calendars count the number of people actually walking thru the gates. They are based on ride wait times. We find it is the people wondering the parks that make things feel more crowded & make things more miserable for us. Trying to get around is harder & more exhausting if more people are on the walkways. But none of the crowd calendars address that. Make your plan but have all the info you need to make changes as needed.

 

[siren0119]

They are going to vary because every site has their own algorithm and method for calcluating estimated crowds/what parks are better to visit on what days. There isn't one standardized way to make the estimate.

I take information from 3 different sites, and all I'm really looking for is what parks they agree will be the busiest/highest crowd rating on a given day. I don't give any real value to the numbers themselves.

 

[starjazz]

It almost always comes down to times of the year rather than days of the week (with the previously mentioned exception being MK on Mondays, which are indeed often a bad time to pick MK).

However, don't believe the idea that WDW is always busy and there's no slow season. There is most definitely a big difference between going the first week in February and and first week of July. Or the second week in September vs the second week in April. Holidays (of which there are many), summer, spring breaks, and big events are all known busy times. Off times definitely exist, but its rarely possible to track it day to day as crowds can fluctuate for a variety of reasons.

 

[OasterP]

I was interested in finding out what the touring plans calendar thought the crowds would be for our trip last week (28th-5th), but not enough to actually pay to find out. I really think that it's all in touring styles sometimes. We get FP for what we can and we park hop. And we did this with a 9 and 4 year old and it wasn't any trouble for us. We would start our day in the parks that had the EMH as early as we were able to get there and then take a break and finish our day in a park that didn't have EMH or was closing early (we never stayed past 10 either way). I didn't think the crowds were bad at all, but we may have also gotten lucky!

 

[skippytx]

We pay for Touring Plans and find their app, and service to be worth the fee. The crowd calendar helps with planning, but in the last couple of years WDW has been dynamically adjusting the staffing and capacity of the rides in the parks. I've been on crowd level "3" days and level "10" days and waited the same amount of time in standby to ride a ride.

For example, on slower days they'll take 2 or even 3 trains out of Big Thunder Mountain, drastically reducing the number of riders per hour that can go through. (They can run up to 5 trains max at one time). Sometimes they'll shut an entire side of the ride down. It artificially increases the wait time for the ride.

I will say it's easier to navigate the parks when there are less people there. Getting around is easier, but I found little difference between standby ride wait times regardless of crowd level. Getting extra FP+ is a little easier with less people in the parks as well.

I prefer to go when a) the weather is good, b) the park hours are longer, and c) there are no hard ticket events closing MK down 4 nights a week early. I don't really think about crowd levels anymore as it's pretty much always busy now. Setup a good touring plan, work the FP+ system, and you'll still have a great time.

 

[CapeCodTenor]

I couldn't agree with this more! We just came back from our MNSSHP trip and to us the crowds were not that bad. The crowd calendars (UT) was off by a bit but nothing we couldn't manage. I was that person that would plan out our trip to the T but this trip we just had fun and enjoyed the moment (with some must do items of course) and this was our best trip this far! Also the night we went to MNSSHP we heard a lot of complaints about crowds and how their group didn't get to enjoy much but we meet jack and sally, watched the parade, fireworks, stage show all from the hub, received masses amounts of candy, and rode tons of rides. We had a list of things we wanted to do but I went in with the expectation that if we did not complete everything it wouldn't ruin my trip. Its really all in the execution and expectation. Expect it to be busy but plan accordingly. ❤

As to my highlighted statement: This is a great way to do the parks in my opinion. Don't over plan. Sure, have plan and some fastpasses planned, but when things change go with it. I would, however, try and plan around things, like parades (did this all the time to ride the rides I wanted to ride), fireworks and whatever, but otherwise enjoy the moment. This is also a great way to catch some of the small details in how Disney plans and themes their lands and attractions.

Yeah I use them as a general guide for structuring my trip but definitely do not take them as gospel and never worry or dwell on the number. As others have said, I just assume it's going to be busy on any given day, but I've also been going to the parks long enough now that I know that even on the busiest days, you can still get A LOT done and make the most of it. Maximize FP (incl refresh), try to work around times that other people are doing other things (in the morning...the before 10-11 am rule still works really well, during parades, during fireworks, etc.) Also, and this one to me is hugely important, know when to take a break, step out of a park or into a bar (ahh good ole World Showcase), and get a breather from the crowds. By doing this during the busiest times of the day, it really does slow things down a bit and take the pressure off.

It's good to have a plan and think things through ahead of time, but be flexible, understand that anything can happen on any given day, and just roll with it, and all will be well. Tho some people may not agree, WDW can still be a magical place! It just takes a little more work than it used to

I agree with the highlighted. Have a plan, but be flexible.

 

[DebbieB]

Basic rule for party dates - if there is not a party, MK will be very crowded. I'm looking at Touring plans for yesterday (Tuesday), it says Predicted 1, Actual 2, it was a party date. I'm assuming the 10 was for Monday, which was not a party date.

 

[Thecouch]

Read a big review on all the crowd calander predictions and actual crowds and the most reliable prediction was disney world offical 1 ticket prices . 1 day ticket prices can vary 4 or 5 times a week and the higher the price the bigger the crowd .
So one day tickets start from $109 during the year . Rest of this month mon-thur is $117 . Fri and sun $125 and sat $139

Other example are dec after 13th even mon-thur are $125 .21-24 $139 and rest of month $159