There are a couple things about that, 1) the neighbor said that the man approached her son a couple weeks before but didn't report it to the police. If someone had approached my daughter my first call would be to the police. 2) I will teach my daughter if she is lost go into a store or find a policeman or fireman not a stranger on the street.
After googling a bit -
The odds of being abducted by a stranger 1-610,000
The odds of being killed in a plane crash 1-310,000
The odds the Earth will experience catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 year 1 in 5000
Maybe the neighbor was afraid to approach police and being one of those crazy, everyone's a predator, parents. Depending on how he was approached, it might be possible to have a plausible reason and not feel overly alarmed. Sadly, in retrospect, we now know that it was not under good intentions.
I tell my kids if they can't find a store employee or someone official, to find a mom with kids. I thought the guy that took the NY boy was a store employee off duty so if he had on a uniform or store shirt, the little boy may have felt it was ok. If he had wandered into this guy's store, the results may have been the same.
The odds make sense but I think each parent has to weigh the chance of the odds of it becoming their kid vs. the result if your kid is unlucky enough to be "that" kid. I wonder about the parents of the NY boy and if they were in agreement over his solo walk. What they planned was perfectly reasonable & I probably would have done the same, but if they were not in agreement over his independence, that would be rough.
Out of curiousity, I just looked up my zip code for registered offenders. There are 44 in my little 2-5 mile radius & about half of those are crimes against children. And we are just in a suburb. I'm not overly fearful but I do worry about those that have an opportunity or have never been caught.
Kids are released from school around here at any age to walk, ride the bus, etc. They do not have to be with anyone.
I have let my kids walk home a few houses away off the bus together and they go to the park without parents. But this year we are facing kids at different schools, coming home alone with much farther away stops.
OP, I don't think I'm an overprotective parent in general, and I do not think you are being out of line by wanting to watch DD get on the bus on the type of road you describe. Since it's an easy solution - watch her, have her in the car, then I'd definitely rather be safe.
MIL gave DD11 her old cell phone. I'm not ready for DD to have a cell phone yet but MIL pointed out that any phone can dial 911, with or without service. We are letting DD keep the phone. DD wants one even if it's just a basic electronic address book, but we like that it can be used in a true emergency also, just in case. Just throwing that out for parents who might have kids out alone.