Covid 19 Pandemic - The Perfect Storm that Destroyed DVC

[Noah_t]

Does anyone else here also worry about DVC becoming just another timeshare. Or was it always just another timeshare? The confluence of consequences from Covid 19 (couldnt resist) really create an atmosphere that might just destroy the crazy value us owners of DVC acscribed to the product. Or maybe as someome recently told me I just need to chill out. Disney will find its footing and we will all happily wake up at 4AM six months ahead of our trip to make dining reservations again one day soon.

 

[Buttcracker]

I would just sit back and let time do its thing. Disney will regain confidence, people will regain confidence.

 

[jarestel]

The value of DVC derives from its proximity to the theme parks. As long as the parks are operating, DVC will retain value. If something happens to the parks, DVC will be just another timeshare. I would have no interest in visiting Orlando without the theme parks. But as long as they are there, so will I be!

 

[LAX]

Does anyone else here also worry about DVC becoming just another timeshare. Or was it always just another timeshare? The confluence of consequences from Covid 19 (couldnt resist) really create an atmosphere that might just destroy the crazy value us owners of DVC acscribed to the product. Or maybe as someome recently told me I just need to chill out. Disney will find its footing and we will all happily wake up at 4AM six months ahead of our trip to make dining reservations again one day soon.

I am concerned, but it's more due to recent DVD management decisions rather than anything COVID-related. I think the "trend towards just another timeshare" started when management decided to put in much more restrictive barriers to resale owners a little while ago.

LAX

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It always was just another timeshare. With close proximity to some of the post popular vacation spots in the world. If the parks don't reopen then yes, there will be changes but that's unlikely.

I guess the thing to do is to consider why you and most of us purchased it? Onsite at Disney? It's probably the reason most do and why it's gone like it has. It's real comparison is to Disney onsite hotels. I'd doubt you bought because it was outlier in the timeshare world and thought what a great investment to make! Or if you owned VB, HHI or Aulani maybe because you like the Disney name for the few offsite locations with the ability to stay onsite when you want? Offsite has always been the most vulnerable because it's competition is other timeshares in the same area and they can't rely on the theme parks like onsite can/does.

 

[glamdring269]

The parks not recovering would likely be the main thing that completely tanks the value of DVC. However, if covid ends up completely tanking Disney World then I think we're all going to have much more to worry about than our DVC interest.

 

[Drewferin]

The parks not recovering would likely be the main thing that completely tanks the value of DVC. However, if covid ends up completely tanking Disney World then I think we're all going to have much more to worry about than our DVC interest.

Thats exactly what I told my wife last week.

 

[CastAStone]

Or maybe as someome recently told me I just need to chill out.

I wouldn’t be so rude as to tell a stranger that, but Disney hotels are competing with DVC owners renting points, so Disney has a vested interest in ensuring that the bottom doesn’t completely fall out. Not forever. It may be 1, 2, or even 3 bad years in the interim though.

 

[DougEMG]

I own DVC to save money staying on-site. That is where it's value comes from. You want to walk to Magic Kingdom you either own DVC, rent DVC or pay cash to Disney to stay at Bay Lake/Contemporary.

Off-site timeshares are a dime a dozen with nearly unlimited options and competition, so completely different then the world DVC operates in.

 

[sethschroeder]

DVC $ vs Disney hotel $

DVC will always retain value because of the hotels costing as much as they do.

 

[Great3]

DVC $ vs Disney hotel $

DVC will always retain value because of the hotels costing as much as they do.

Yep, 100% agree. Nothing to do with Disney is cheap, and as long as total cost of ownership + MF dues are less than staying at Disney hotels after 7-10 years, DVC will still retain value. As long as the math works out, which I believe will for the next 20+ years to come. But my believe is just that, nothing guarantee.

Great3

 

[sethschroeder]

Yep, 100% agree. Nothing to do with Disney is cheap, and as long as total cost of ownership + MF dues are less than staying at Disney hotels after 7-10 years, DVC will still retain value. As long as the math works out, which I believe will for the next 20+ years to come. But my believe is just that, nothing guarantee.

Great3

Only way your math doesn't work out is if Disney sells off each WDW park to a separate company. Lets say Hilton, Google, Amazon, or Universal bought all 4 parks tomorrow. Does anyone stop going? Not many because any bill of sale likely would come with exclusive rights to Disney IP for theme parks.

Its about as close to a guarantee as you can get. If you are that worried most people can likely still come out "ahead" by selling now.

 

[CmdrThor]

It has always just been another timeshare, but to me the value is all of my future stays, not what I could sell it for now. All contracts go to $0 eventually, so I think it is silly to look at DVC as an investment.

 

[kevtlas]

Yep, 100% agree. Nothing to do with Disney is cheap, and as long as total cost of ownership + MF dues are less than staying at Disney hotels after 7-10 years, DVC will still retain value. As long as the math works out, which I believe will for the next 20+ years to come. But my believe is just that, nothing guarantee.

Great3

I agree, I don't ever see it happening. Not that Disney is too big to fail, but the fact that the parks keep evolving will keep visitors coming back again and again, which almost guarantees DVC to keep it's value. ​

 

[DVC Doctor]

In two years, hopefully covid19 will be a distant memory

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I think it is the perfect storm, but not for the reasons you mentioned.

Disney may not be able to open for an extended period of time. Disney (and also large stadium events) are "super spreader " events, and Disney attracts visitors from all over the world, so it is a world-wide super-spreader.

If Disney opens at greatly reduced capacity, can they make money? And would DVC members be able to participate fully at a greatly reduced capacity?

The pandemic fighting playbook envisions using social distancing to slow the spread of the virus to a very low level, then reopening the economy. In this scenario, it is known that the virus will break out again at some point, requiring a rapid shut down (because the virus spreads at exponential rates). The goal would be to make these subsequent waves shorter and less severe over time. This continues until there is herd immunity or there is a vaccine.

Unfortunately, the scenario of unpredictably shutting down the economy is not good for the travel industry. People will shy away from booking travel, knowing they may or may not got summarily cancelled, and may or may not get their money back. Not to mention the risk of death. DVC point rentals is the worst case example of this, because of the no-refund policy of most rental contracts.

The subsequent waves could be made much less severe through large scale testing and contact tracing. But this does not seem to be in the cards for the US.

We may not get to these subsequent waves, because the states are reopening well before the virus is under control. Things could get pretty brutal. (Hope I'm wrong)

A government can reopen, and you can't sue the government. An elected official can make the trade-off between the economy and the lives of its citizens.

A corporation can re-open and totally get sued for the preventable deaths it caused. Disney can run models of how many cases of Covid-19 would arise from an outbreak in its parks. These would lead to additional cases as a-symptomatic guests return home and infect their families and friends. This would lead to deaths that could be tied back to Disney's decision to reopen. Disney may get sued by frustrated members wanting them to reopen as soon as the Florida massage parlors do, but the liability from these nuisance lawsuits is chump change compared with the liability from a large number of wrongful death suits. And would Disney's internal conversations about re-opening be discoverable in these lawsuits? I am not a lawyer, but I am guessing, yes.

What is the resale value of a DVC contract in an era where Disney is shut down for a long period? or Disney shuts down intermittently with little notice?

Let's say we get a vaccine. Yay! That does not mean that another pandemic cannot occur. If you liked Covid-19, get a load of Covid-26.

So yes, a perfect storm.

 

[Zurezo]

Does anyone else here also worry about DVC becoming just another timeshare. Or was it always just another timeshare? The confluence of consequences from Covid 19 (couldnt resist) really create an atmosphere that might just destroy the crazy value us owners of DVC acscribed to the product. Or maybe as someome recently told me I just need to chill out. Disney will find its footing and we will all happily wake up at 4AM six months ahead of our trip to make dining reservations again one day soon.

I don't think this at all and I think about DVC as a long term play for me and my family. I am in the middle of purchasing a VGC contract right now at a price I never thought I would get a seller to accept. I know I wont use this for 12 months based on Covid and how I feel about it, but I do feel Disney knows the value of the brand here.

I think a lot of companies, Disney included need to hit the reset button on a number of things and its not always a bad thing.

 

[pirate33]

I am in the middle of purchasing a VGC contract right now at a price I never thought I would get a seller to accept.

Don‘t keep us in suspense over the price! Consider posting in the ROFR thread; it’s very valuable information in a changing market.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3798344/

 

[Lumpy1106]

Does anyone else here also worry about DVC becoming just another timeshare. Or was it always just another timeshare? The confluence of consequences from Covid 19 (couldnt resist) really create an atmosphere that might just destroy the crazy value us owners of DVC acscribed to the product. Or maybe as someome recently told me I just need to chill out. Disney will find its footing and we will all happily wake up at 4AM six months ahead of our trip to make dining reservations again one day soon.

I'm more worried about the 1/19 restrictions than I am the COVID closure. ROFR buybacks are zero right now -that will allow more negotiating, but that is temporary. Any time a change is made that contractually erodes the resale price - yes, that drives DVC to be just like any other timeshare, and that is much more damaging.

 

[ELMC]

Disney is just another timeshare. The only difference is that it is a timeshare with the closest proximity to the Disney parks. Hopefully DVC prices will normalize a bit to reflect that this is, in fact, just a timeshare.