Concern about potential resale restrictions in coming years for older resorts

[intamin]

SSR! I don't own any points there and have used my GCV and BLT points there. No regrets and I'll do it again.

Any SSR room/section you recommend? I book at the 7 month window so I always just ask for the "best available" and so far got what I assume to be the regular rooms. Would love to hear suggestions and try it out.

For me honestly as close to Disney Springs as possible is my favorite just because I do frequent the shops and restaurants there a LOT. I forgot the specific building numbers but you can find it pretty easily on touring plans. I've also heard good things about the Springs but if you're not staying in a preferred room then I would consider Grandstand or the Paddock.

 

[Sandisw]

Who says they have to touch an inch of it to resell with higher points charts?

My guess is they could do 30-50% increase without doing much, if any renovations and they would still sell through very quickly… the location is so good, especially in a country where all the millenials will be buying DVC with lots of $$s (peak earning years), with older or grown kids who they’ll want to take to EPCOT or go alone and enjoy EPCOT resort area….

There might be an extremely limited business case for substantial renovations at that time, espcially if they maintain the property through to the end.

The rooms will be ready for a full refurb and to sell it as a new resort, it’s going to need to be new in that respect.

I don’t think they will necessarily tear down to the ground, but I do anticipate substantial things done.

 

[Bearval]

Are they tearing down the 50-year-old Contemporary and Poly?

When they have to do major repairs/ improvements there won’t be any special assessments since these are Disney hotels.

 

[Nursemanit]

When they have to do major repairs/ improvements there won’t be any special assessments since these are Disney hotels.

Cash guests pay as well with higher room rates - there is no free lunch. These are not 19th-century buildings they can be made efficient and renovated.

 

[Sandisw]

Cash guests pay as well with higher room rates - there is no free lunch. These are not 19th-century buildings they can be made efficient and renovated.

I agree...who knows what route DVD will take, but I don't think they have to be demolished in order to create new DVC rooms...that, due to location, will sell.

 

[NEW-B]

I will have to disagree with you on that, to sell "new 40 or 50 year" contracts will have the resorts pushing 100 years old. The infrastructure was never designed to last that long. Not a good look for disney if they are having to replace sewer lines and plumbing halfway thru the new contracts and having to send owners a "special assessment" for a few thousand for the repairs.

If we did that there would be no historic buildings in any city. You don’t have to start from scratch. PVC sewer pipe would last at least 100 years. Repairs and maintenance need to be done regardless of age.

But I guess we will see in 19 years.

 

[varns529]

My two cents not that it means anything, but I can’t see them not offering something to current owners. Thats way too many contracts, money, dues etc to let just expire. If I was making the bet, I would not bet on every single context coming back. I get the point charts etc argument, but that’s just way too much money to gamble on. I might not buy it again, I’ll be a heck of a lot older. I might be good. Offer me a “cheap” extension I might consider it. I’m sure I’m not the only one in that boat.

You can’t compare it to the old key west extension debacle. That extension was given way way too early. Why would I extend when I have like 35 years to go?

 

[Sandisw]

My two cents not that it means anything, but I can’t see them not offering something to current owners. Thats way too many contracts, money, dues etc to let just expire. If I was making the bet, I would not bet on every single context coming back. I get the point charts etc argument, but that’s just way too much money to gamble on. I might not buy it again, I’ll be a heck of a lot older. I might be good. Offer me a “cheap” extension I might consider it. I’m sure I’m not the only one in that boat.

You can’t compare it to the old key west extension debacle. That extension was given way way too early. Why would I extend when I have like 35 years to go?

But they don’t need current owners to buy again. They need any buyer who wants that location

It makes no sense for them to extend as they lose money that way. Plus, each of those Epcot resorts have a cash counterpart to it which could be closed renovated into DVC so it’s ready to sell when the 2042 resort expires.

They want new resorts with restrictions and better point charts.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

80% of OKW owners losing their points - OKW was the original SAP resort, remember - will offset whatever demand migrates from BWV to Poly or whatever. And it’s not going to change meaningfully what’s available at 7 months anyway, if it changes anything it will be how fast it all goes at 7 months. And who knows if we’ll still have the same reservation methods, waitlist rules, all of that. And an increasing percentage of members will have points they can’t use at VGF, Poly, etc because of restrictions.

And whatever DVC they build on the Boardwalk site in 2045 May just wind up Hoovering up all the non-restricted points (e.g. the vast, vast majority) at 7 months, freeing up Poly for us SSR resale folks.

It’s too far into the future to predict with any accuracy.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

But they don’t need current owners to buy again. They need any buyer who wants that location

It makes no sense for them to extend as they lose money that way. Plus, each of those Epcot resorts have a cash counterpart to it which could be closed renovated into DVC so it’s ready to sell when the 2042 resort expires.

They want new resorts with restrictions and better point charts.

I could see them offering a “loyalty discount” that maybe knocks 10-20% off the new contract price (more if the economy is weak, even less if it is strong)—but I agree that it won’t be a pure extension and the new points charts will be much higher (because they can!) and almost certainly 7mo reservations will be restricted to direct owners.

 

[Sandisw]

I could see them offering a “loyalty discount” that maybe knocks 10-20% off the new contract price (more if the economy is weak, even less if it is strong)—but I agree that it won’t be a pure extension and the new points charts will be much higher (because they can!) and almost certainly 7mo reservations will be restricted to direct owners.

Discounts to current owners..do not believe they will give those owners a head start..is a definite possibility and it may be more than typical.

But, as you said, that is not an extension. It’s simply buying new which is why an extension doesn’t make sense

Plus, there are still many OKW owners out there who didn’t pay and didn’t sign the QCD. No one knows for sure how that will work..heck, DVD might not.

The only possible paid extension I see at this point is offering those who own OKW and didn’t do as above the chance to pay now for it.

 

[mattpeto]

To be honest, no one knows what Disney will or will not do with the expiring resorts in 2042.

We do have a chunk load of resorts that will expire all at the same time.

That also means that a big chunk of points will disappear from the system - how that will effect the eco balance of the entire DVC system - no one knows, but I bet DVC is running a lot of simulations and "what ifs" to try to figure it out.

DVC is able to see which home resort points are being used for every reservation - Personally I always use my SSR and VGF points at BWV and when BWV is gone I would need to use those points somewhere else putting extra strain on those resorts leaving less availability for other members.

If only 10% of the members are using their points as I do, at 2042 resorts then it might not be that big of a deal but if 50% of the total amount of points used to book 2042 resorts are "foreign" points then we will start to see less availability elsewhere because people can't move to RIV or other restricted resorts.

But for now all we can do is speculate and in maybe like 15 years we know more.

Wow, I never even thought of that point. That's a great point!

But the counter of that is many of the original DVC resorts will be unavailable to book.

I would think that starting in 2042, DVC members will really be locked into their home resorts. I wouldn't assume availability anywhere at the 7 month window.

 

[Yankee626]

There's another issue here that seems to be overlooked. Most owners I would assume own less than 200 points . When you have new resorts with high point costs for 1 br , 2 br and GVs it seems those owners would not have enough points to stay in those accommodations. CCV has the cabins which are always available because nobody has enough points to use them as well as the Poly Bungalows. When they added them into the point mix owners were slotted to stay in them unrealistically. This can cause a problem of availability even at the 11 month point. It does already for CCV owners looking for studios. I bought a guaranteed week at CCV just because of that possibility. Riviera could also fall victim to this problem somewhere down the road with restricted small contacts.

 

[Sandisw]

There's another issue here that seems to be overlooked. Most owners I would assume own less than 200 points . When you have new resorts with high point costs for 1 br , 2 br and GVs it seems those owners would not have enough points to stay in those accommodations. CCV has the cabins which are always available because nobody has enough points to use them as well as the Poly Bungalows. When they added them into the point mix owners were slotted to stay in them unrealistically. This can cause a problem of availability even at the 11 month point. It does already for CCV owners looking for studios. I bought a guaranteed week at CCV just because of that possibility. Riviera could also fall victim to this problem somewhere down the road with restricted small contacts.

Which is why direct points will have an advantage as all those new resorts will there for them.

Resale buyers are at risk those won’t be. But it will certainly increase people’s need to book at 11 months if room size is a concern or be flexible on when one travels.

 

[take36]

Which is why direct points will have an advantage as all those new resorts will there for them.

Resale buyers are at risk those won’t be. But it will certainly increase people’s need to book at 11 months if room size is a concern or be flexible on when one travels.

That is why I always stay at the resort within a year or two prior to buying resale no matter how good the deal is. Need to have a recent perspective of "can I stay here every year if the 7 month window becomes impossible." I've lost out on great deals because its such a big commitment (money aside, its committing your disney vacation!) that I have stuck to this rule for resale.

 

[Nursemanit]

It is pretty obvious what direction DVC is going so:

Find an end date that lines up with your needs at a resort where you are ok staying every year if you want resale. If you can't see yourself at a single resort - buy direct at your favorite resort that is currently in active sales.

Even today - My poly points won't always work at VFG / CC for a studio @ 7 months and it will get worse when VBR goes offline.

 

[tom1944]

Which is why direct points will have an advantage as all those new resorts will there for them.

Resale buyers are at risk those won’t be. But it will certainly increase people’s need to book at 11 months if room size is a concern or be flexible on when one travels.

It is why I have put direct points under consideration. For my wife and I direct points are not important but since a factor in our purchase was passing the membership to our daughter and granddaughter direct points have to be in the plan.

I figure our resale points will expire in 2054 which is far beyond when my wife and I will use them but having direct points will work for my daughter and granddaughter past that date while having 180 points worth of dues removed.