Chicken Little Box Office Estimate Thread

[All Aboard]

Post your Chicken Little box office guess here. Post both your opening weekend guess and your guess for the run. We'll cut off the run at the weekend of January 14, 2006. Using The Incredibles as a guide (which opened on the same weekend last year) which stayed in fairly wide distribution until that date.

I'll start.

$35mill opening, $140mill run. That's legs of 4.0x, which is slightly lower than par for the Disney course lately. I'm more confident in the opening than I am in the run. Lilo opened at $35 and finished at $146. I might be agressive on the legs in this case, but I'll stick with it.

 

[YoHo]

$18 Million opening, under 100 for the run. Normal people think Disney sucks now. Once everyone around here has seen it, it will die.

 

[Onceuponatime]

Well, according to Boxofficemojo, only other noteable opening is Jarhead & thats only on 2400 screens.

I say Little opens at 40 mil and 160 after four weeks.

 

[YoHo]

You don't think it will have a dropoff at all?

With Harry Potter and Narnia coming close on it's heels? That's crazy talk.

 

[Peter Pirate]

I say 42,737,243 opening and 180,000,003.52 run.

 

[YoHo]

I say 42,737,243 opening and 180,000,003.52 run.

Can I quote you on that?


Oh wait, I just did.

 

[BRERALEX]

price is right technique

19 opening.

110 finish

Peter this is a Disney film not Pixar.

 

[Onceuponatime]

My numbers are based on the premise that CL will be a huge hit, growing in popularity after the first weekend. Either that or the fumes in the shop are dulling my senses.

 

[BRERALEX]

Even good word of mouth isn't going to help this movie much. You have Narnia, HP and Zathura coming into the mix. If CL doesn't make a HUGE opening then it's cooked. ha ha ha cooked.

 

[Above_the_Rim]

I dont really think the opening weekend will make that big of a difference, becuase if the movie is as bad as critics are saying then the people who see it in that first weekend can actually spread a bad mouth of word.

My Estimates: Opening Weekend-30 Million Run-90-110 Million.... Does the person who's closest get prizes?

 

[raidermatt]

$28mil, $105mil.

Honestly, my gut tells me less, but I've learned not to trust my gut too much unless it involves dinner.

 

[YoHo]

I don't even trust my gut for dinner. It tends to write checks my butt can't cash.


HEYO!!!!!

 

[mt2]

25 mil opening, 95 mil total

 

[All Aboard]

Does the person who's closest get prizes?

I'm waiting for airlarry to come in and announce a few clever prizes.

 

[All Aboard]

I want to make an adjustment. RT added 6 more reviews today and only one was positive. Yikes.

 

[Lord Fantasius]

$38 million open (little kids are going to want to see it early);
$99 million run (doesn't appear to be that great of a movie in any category)

-R

 

[RyMickey]

$28.5 million opening...$90 million entire run. There's too much on its heels for it to maintain any kind of momentum. Plus with the lukewarm reviews...The folks at Pixar will be smiling by the end of the weekend.

 

[airlarry!]

So nice of you to remember, All Aboard.

Has it really been that long since Disney released an animated feature drawn by DFA? Its hard to believe....

I'll guess $22 million with an $88 million overall. Only because I'm rusty.

As for prize? OF COURSE, we have prizes for the annual semi-annual Guess The Gross game!

5th Prize: Two weeks stay at the brand new Poop Century Resort.

4th Prize: One week's stay at the brand new Poop Century Resort. (We still had some weeks left unclaimed from last year's contest).

3rd Prize: Kevin Yee's new book, "11 Things You Didn't Know About Aladdin's Flying Carpets".

2nd Prize: One of the rejected Golden Ride Vehicles from the recent 50th celebration at Disneyland: Ei$ner's Golden Parachute.

First Prize: A YEAR'S SUPPLY OF RUM RUNNERS courtesy of your friends at The Adventurer's Club!

Good luck, and good guessing!

(edit: to fix the mistake Matt caught)

 

[Above_the_Rim]

I want to make an adjustment. RT added 6 more reviews today and only one was positive. Yikes.

I know, I checked it today and was really surprised. The rating has gone down to 28%, that's unheard of. If this movie does bad, I hope it's failure proves to Disney that story matters foremost, and the real reason their past movies did so bad. I hope it doesn't make Robert Iger declare that all Disney movies are going to DVD now (and that the cinema is no longer profittable,) or somehow replace the feature animation department with Pixar (but whatever)

 

[raidermatt]

Larry, I think you screwed up and reversed the 4th and 5th prizes...