CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[DLgal]

KS reduced their sensitivity on the tests in early Jan with no announcement, It was considered 42 cycles which was apparently one of the most sensitive for the market but back in October that was considered a good thing. COVID testing manufacturers have given guidance on their own cycle threshold as well.

Apparently anything 35 and over is deemed too sensitive. It picks up the virus but is considered past the point of contagious. FWIW KS set their limit at 35 in early Jan but these are only for state run labs, private run labs may have different thresholds. Though IIRC Fauci recommends 34 cycles and below.

This all said I think the issue becomes what our response is. If someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then should they still be considered positive in the number? They had the presence of the virus still right? So is the descriptor of "false positive" accurate? BUT if someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then the protocol for that should changed based on contagious vs not. Much of our protocols for isolation and quarantine and subsequent testing requirements hasn't made that separation between someone who would be considered positive but is past the point of passing it onto others which is usually the greatest concern.

What is KS?

 

[jlwhitney]

KS reduced their sensitivity on the tests in early Jan with no announcement, It was considered 42 cycles which was apparently one of the most sensitive for the market but back in October that was considered a good thing. COVID testing manufacturers have given guidance on their own cycle threshold as well.

Apparently anything 35 and over is deemed too sensitive. It picks up the virus but is considered past the point of contagious. FWIW KS set their limit at 35 in early Jan but these are only for state run labs, private run labs may have different thresholds. Though IIRC Fauci recommends 34 cycles and below.

This all said I think the issue becomes what our response is. If someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then should they still be considered positive in the number? They had the presence of the virus still right? So is the descriptor of "false positive" accurate? BUT if someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then the protocol for that should changed based on contagious vs not. Much of our protocols for isolation and quarantine and subsequent testing requirements hasn't made that separation between someone who would be considered positive but is past the point of passing it onto others which is usually the greatest concern.

I believe Colorado changed it too, I read an article the other week from colorado when researching more on what the WHO is saying.

 

[huskies90]

...the far larger amount of people who've now had Covid.

Many of us had the same theory over the summer as to why numbers in the NY/NJ/CT areas dropped so low. We were the epicenter of the original outbreak in March/April and at that time, nobody was getting tested unless they were so sick, they were sent to the hospital. Others with symptoms were told to just quarantine. Many believed we had reached some level of immunity. Based on antibody testing, estimates in NYC were as high as 30% had it. But that did little to slow the spread in the Fall/Winter and per the health experts predictions, we skyrocketed back to our Spring time numbers. Even if we assume 50 million Americans have had it, that is still only ~ 15% of the population. All I am saying is that we should give what health experts are saying more weight than what we think will happen. That's all.

 

[gwynne]

What is KS?

I think it's Kansas.

 

[DLgal]

Same here. But I think things are changing behind the scenes and in time they are gonna admit truly asymptomatic Covid isn’t an issue and they really don’t have it. Presympotomatic yes but that is true with flus and other viruses, but it still drastically drops how many are actually contagious at one time.

Right now this fact doesn’t meet the media’s agenda.

I have thought this all along. Now, I'm no epidemiologist, but I just can't understand how TRULY asymptomatic spread is possible. Given the huge symptom list that exists for this virus, I question anyone's claim that they are *actually* asymptomatic. I think there isn't such a thing as truly asymptomatic, but there IS a phenomenon of *self reported* asymptomatic. I also think a LOT of this is actually PRE symptomatic spread.

I mean, on any given day, I have at least ONE "covid symptom." I am healthy overall, and have never actually had Covid. But it is rare day where I don't at some point experience SOMETHING like a runny nose or congestion, mild headache, abdominal upset, etc. I very rarely feel perfectly fine. I have a few chronic conditions like allergies, migraine, IBS. There is no way, if I contract Covid, that I will honestly be able to say I have NOT had any listed symptoms in the last 14 days. I think many people are so used to these mild "symptoms" that they write them off or completely forget about them. I do. I can't pinpoint which days over the last 2 weeks I have had a headache, for example because for me, having a mild headache is like my baseline.

A guy at my husband's work tested positive on a Monday and reported "absolutely no symptoms." He kept reiterating this over and over. Finally, my husband said to him, "what about that terrible headache you had last Wednesday that I sent you home for?" He didn't even think about that, and that is DEFINITELY a Covid symptom. This guy does not have a history of migraines. People forget, or simply think that the only symptoms are: cough, fever, shortness of breath.

 

[Jonfw2]

Many of us had the same theory over the summer as to why numbers in the NY/NJ/CT areas dropped so low. We were the epicenter of the original outbreak in March/April and at that time, nobody was getting tested unless they were so sick, they were sent to the hospital. Others with symptoms were told to just quarantine. Many believed we had reached some level of immunity. Based on antibody testing, estimates in NYC were as high as 30% had it. But that did little to slow the spread in the Fall/Winter and per the health experts predictions, we skyrocketed back to our Spring time numbers. Even if we assume 50 million Americans have had it, that is still only ~ 15% of the population. All I am saying is that we should give what health experts are saying more weight than what we think will happen. That's all.

Very fair points. But, it's incontrovertible fact that now even more people in that area have had it and that in the next 6-14 weeks many more will be vaccinated. That just is what it is.

 

[DLgal]

I think it's Kansas.

Oh, duh. I'm over here thinking it's some government agency or test manufacturer.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

What is KS?

lol yeah sorry for the confusion. It's Kansas, sadly nothing as exciting as a government agency or test manufacturer

 

[Jonfw2]

Oh, duh. I'm over here thinking it's some government agency or test manufacturer.

Have you tried the KS 110's? Huge upgrade over the old model. Just saying.

 

[jlwhitney]

I have thought this all along. Now, I'm no epidemiologist, but I just can't understand how TRULY asymptomatic spread is possible. Given the huge symptom list that exists for this virus, I question anyone's claim that they are *actually* asymptomatic. I think there isn't such a thing as truly asymptomatic, but there IS a phenomenon of *self reported* asymptomatic. I also think a LOT of this is actually PRE symptomatic spread.

I mean, on any given day, I have at least ONE "covid symptom." I am healthy overall, and have never actually had Covid. But it is rare day where I don't at some point experience SOMETHING like a runny nose or congestion, mild headache, abdominal upset, etc. I very rarely feel perfectly fine. I have a few chronic conditions like allergies, migraine, IBS. There is no way, if I contract Covid, that I will honestly be able to say I have NOT had any listed symptoms in the last 14 days. I think many people are so used to these mild "symptoms" that they write them off or completely forget about them. I do. I can't pinpoint which days over the last 2 weeks I have had a headache, for example because for me, having a mild headache is like my baseline.

A guy at my husband's work tested positive on a Monday and reported "absolutely no symptoms." He kept reiterating this over and over. Finally, my husband said to him, "what about that terrible headache you had last Wednesday that I sent you home for?" He didn't even think about that, and that is DEFINITELY a Covid symptom. This guy does not have a history of migraines. People forget, or simply think that the only symptoms are: cough, fever, shortness of breath.

I agree, very well stated. You have to have a certain viral load to spread or have symptoms, that is proven science for every virus.

I have never believed for a minute that truly asymptomatic spread is a thing, only pre symptomatic.

I also don't believe the large gatherings that have an outbreak claiming no one was sick. People hid illness all the time and people still do and will in the future and are highly unlikely to admit it unless they get unlucky and land in the hospital and get caught.

 

[Jonfw2]

I agree, very well stated. You have to have a certain viral load to spread or have symptoms, that is proven science for every virus.

I have never believed for a minute that truly asymptomatic spread is a thing, only pre symptomatic.

I also don't believe the large gatherings that have an outbreak claiming no one was sick. People hid illness all the time and people still do and will in the future and are highly unlikely to admit it unless they get unlucky and land in the hospital and get caught.

Great points by both of you. "I'm sick, but it's totally not Covid" is not equal to "asymptomatic".

By the way, this is also why I theorize that vaccinated people at the very least will be far less likely to spread covid- the viral load will be far lower and for a far shorter amount of time than in a non-vaxxed person.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Honestly I don’t know if it’s wishful thinking on my part or not but I just don’t think it’s going to happen. A surge? Maybe. Catastrophic like nothing we’ve seen before? I’m just not seeing that for the reasons Jonfw2 and others have stated.

I agree. Not buying into the doom and gloom predictions at this time. We are much better prepared and have more effective treatments.

 

[Farro]

(posted elsewhere too)

Got my second dose of Moderna about an hour ago.

I will say, the first dose hurt going in my arm, which was weird as vaccines don't normally bother me.
This time, I felt nothing! Must have been the difference in the person administering.

So I'll see how I feel. I'm one of those people that had a delayed rash at the injection site - showed up about 8 or 9 days later. I'll see if it happens again! They had me take a benadryl before and use opposite arm this time.

 

[Jonfw2]

(posted elsewhere too)

Got my second dose of Moderna bout an hour ago.

I will say, the first dose hurt going in my arm, which was weird as vaccines don't normally bother me.
This time, I felt nothing! Must have been the difference in the person adminsitering.

So I'll see how I feel. I'm one of those people that had a delayed rash at the injection site - showed up about 8 or 9 days later. I'll see if it happens again! They had me take a benadryl before and use opposite arm this time.

Congrats! My wife got a little sick after her second one- probably came on around evening and was gone by the next morning.

 

[wenrob]

(posted elsewhere too)

Got my second dose of Moderna about an hour ago.

I will say, the first dose hurt going in my arm, which was weird as vaccines don't normally bother me.
This time, I felt nothing! Must have been the difference in the person adminsitering.

So I'll see how I feel. I'm one of those people that had a delayed rash at the injection site - showed up about 8 or 9 days later. I'll see if it happens again! They had me take a benadryl before and use opposite arm this time.

The person giving does make a difference. Going through IVF I had my preferred “needle” people and would request/wait for them over others I knew were terrible at it.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The person giving does make a difference. Going through IVF I had my preferred “needle” people and would request/wait for them over others I knew were terrible at it.

When my husband's company required wellness exams including blood work for health insurance we almost always went with Quest Diagnostics. They did use a small needle but the people doing the blood draws were always so good to us. Whenever I would get bloodwork done at my own doctor's office they often blew through the vein causing slight pain and bruising. I could see such a difference between what happened at my doctor's office and Quest. I wish I had Quest Diagnostics doing it when I was growing up I may not have been so needle-hesitant

 

[Pyotr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1357011532106792960

Dr. Dean has a good thread on twitter regarding AZ.

 

[Jonfw2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1357011532106792960

Dr. Dean has a good thread on twitter regarding AZ.

We have to start explaining these things in simple terms for people. Like: "if you get ANY of the vaccines currently out there and just wait a few weeks, your odds of getting really sick are almost gone and your chances of dying are virtually zero".

 

[jlwhitney]

Great points by both of you. "I'm sick, but it's totally not Covid" is not equal to "asymptomatic".

By the way, this is also why I theorize that vaccinated people at the very least will be far less likely to spread covid- the viral load will be far lower and for a far shorter amount of time than in a non-vaxxed person.

I fully expect the studies will prove that someone vaccinate will spread far less if at all, again common viral /vaccine science. Even many doctors don’t expect those that have been vaccinated to be spreaders either .

 

[Farro]

We have to start explaining these things in simple terms for people. Like: "if you get ANY of the vaccines currently out there and just wait a few weeks, your odds of getting really sick are almost gone and your chances of dying are virtually zero".

I'm getting tired of everyone using information that they don't actually understand as another reason why they won't get the vaccine.

I'm short on patience with people who post anywhere misinformation of any kind about the vaccines, the variants, etc.

We masked up, stayed home, watched businesses close, had our pay-cut, missed out on seeing family- changed our entire lives to keep others safe.
Now you do your part - get vaccinated.