CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

Can't read it! Synopsis?

Dr. Marty Markay who is a professor at Johns Hopkins and Fellow at the Bloomberg Institute says that we will have herd immunity by April. His argument is essentially that between vaccines, previous cases (he believes we've only captured 10-25% of infections), we are simply running out of people who can get Covid.

 

[mrs. magoo]

Dr. Marty Markay who is a professor at Johns Hopkins and Fellow at the Bloomberg Institute says that we will have herd immunity by April. His argument is essentially that between vaccines, previous cases (he believes we've only captured 10-25% of infections), we are simply running out of people who can get Covid.

I find all of this so interesting since the models continue to predict a pretty big increase in cases in March and April peaking in May due to the variants. I keep asking myself with vaccine rollout and the number of people who have gotten sick how can this happen. Knowing that we have had our own variants growing here in the US some of that has to be the reason for the increase in cases here as well. I keep looking at India and there low numbers and predictions that they will not have any increases in cases and wonder how is it going to happen here.

 

[Jonfw2]

I find all of this so interesting since the models continue to predict a pretty big increase in cases in March and April peaking in May due to the variants. I keep asking myself with vaccine rollout and the number of people who have gotten sick how can this happen. Knowing that we have had our own variants growing here in the US some of that has to be the reason for the increase in cases here as well. I keep looking at India and there low numbers and predictions that they will not have any increases in cases and wonder how is it going to happen here.

I really believe that the pessimists in the scientific community are in the minority at this point. They just get all the press.

 

[jlwhitney]

I really believe that the pessimists in the scientific community are in the minority at this point. They just get all the press.

This completely. Plus the ones that are predicting another large surge are the ones that have been the most wrong this whole time. Bad news drives more clicks for news and makes them more money which is getting to be more and more of a frustrating issue.

I really do believe that by summer a lot of normalcy will be back for at least parts of the country, sadly some states will be super slow to get there.

 

[Jonfw2]

So, reading deeper into the Journal piece, the key to all of this is T-cells:

Doctor Markay argues that data has shown millions of people who never tested positive for Covid- who never WOULD have tested positive for Covid, even those who were simply EXPOSED to it, those who would not test positive for antibodies- have T-Cells.

T-Cells, according to the good doc, are sometimes called "memory cells" because they see something coming that they recognize and then immediately begin developing antibodies at the time. T-Cell protection lasts FAR longer than antibodies do and it's likely the reason most major viruses flare up then go away- after the Spanish Flu, people tested positive for T-Cells from it NINETY YEARS later.

 

[aggiedog]

To be clear, everyone has T-cells. They are an integral part of our immune system. I don't know, TBH, how you test for them in regards to a specific antigen. That's something that may have come out long after my med school immunology.

 

[Jonfw2]

To be clear, everyone has T-cells. They are an integral part of our immune system. I don't know, TBH, how you test for them in regards to a specific antigen. That's something that may have come out long after my med school immunology.

The doctor referred to these as "antigen-specific T-cells".

 

[helloconnie]

Do the vaccines prevent infection? Yes, to a large degree but not 100% for certain.

Do the vaccines prevent severe Covid? Yes, almost entirely.

Do the vaccines prevent death from Covid? To date, there is not a single death on record from anyone fully vaccinated by the Pfizer, moderna, or JNJ vaccines.

There is some indication that you can still contract the virus even though you have been vaccinated but you will be asymptomatic. So, theoretically, you can still spread the germs. This is why the mask mandate will stick around for a bit.

 

[helloconnie]

I really hope the JnJ gets approved soon, I think they are shooting for March. I know it won't fix everything, but it has to speed this up. Right?

We will know if J&J is approved next Friday, February 26. That is the date the FDA is suppose to meet.

 

[helloconnie]

New reporting indicates the Pfizer vaccine is 85% effective after 1 dose. Let's see if the US adopts the one shot approach now like the UK has been doing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/single...-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218

 

[Verity_]

New reporting indicates the Pfizer vaccine is 85% effective after 1 dose. Let's see if the US adopts the one shot approach now like the UK has been doing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/single...-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218

85% effective after one dose? That sounds impressive. How does this compare with J&J's numbers?

 

[Jonfw2]

85% effective after one dose? That sounds impressive. How does this compare with J&J's numbers?

JNJ is 100% after 49 days. Not sure what the timeframe they are using here is for Pfizer.

 

[helloconnie]

85% effective after one dose? That sounds impressive. How does this compare with J&J's numbers?

J&J vaccine is 66% effective overall after 29 days

Johnson & Johnson Announces Single-Shot Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Met Primary Endpoints in Interim Analysis of its Phase 3 ENSEMBLE Trial | Johnson & Johnson (jnj.com)

 

[helloconnie]

JNJ is 100% after 49 days. Not sure what the timeframe they are using here is for Pfizer.

Where did you find this efficacy rate?

 

[tink2424]

I thought the wording of "vaccine doesn't likely prevent infection" could have been phrased better. I took it as poster was saying this thread already determined vaccine doesn't prevent infection and I don't think this thread did.

Dependent on vaccine, it does prevent moderate to severe infection. If infected, cases would be mild to asymptomatic.

And more and more studies are finding that those vaccinated actually do not spread covid to those who aren't vaccinated.

I wasn't talking about this thread but the medical community at large. I also personally believe the vaccines will stop the spread of the disease but that is not what is being portrayed by the medical community right now.

 

[snappy]

JNJ is 100% after 49 days. Not sure what the timeframe they are using here is for Pfizer.

I believe I read it was from 15-28 days. I am at 23 days so almost to the outer limit.

 

[Jonfw2]

Where did you find this efficacy rate?

"No cases in vaccinated participants after day 49".

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson...nterim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

 

[DLgal]

The numbers look good, but much of the South has been stuck at home with difficult weather conditions this week.

There have been many areas with no testing and no vaccination sites open due to weather.

Now the weather should help reduce the transmission because people cant get out, but I question have cases really fallen that drastically this week?

Much of the rest of the country also didn't get their vaccine shipments this week. Our county in CA had to close their super POD sites and delay the opening of the third one, all due to no supply. They cancelled thousands of vaccine appointments this week.

 

[godisney14]

JNJ is 100% after 49 days. Not sure what the timeframe they are using here is for Pfizer.

As snappy already mentioned, the study was very narrow. Only looked at days 15 to 28. And, the South African strain has barely touched the country. So, who knows whether that number stays when tested against the South African variant.

Japan is recording a new variant now that they believe came from abroad.

 

[Jonfw2]

As snappy already mentioned, the study was very narrow. Only looked at days 15 to 28. And, the South African strain has barely touched the country. So, who knows whether that number stays when tested against the South African variant.

Japan is recording a new variant now that they believe came from abroad.

Yes. There will definitely be more variants.