CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[jlwhitney]

Asymptomatic really just means you don't have symptoms at the moment, not that you never will. I've always assumed when they said asymptomatic infection spreads the virus, they really meant pre-symptomatic.
Someone who 12 hours later has a fever and body aches very well could have been spreading that throughout the day.

That's different from someone who has very low levels of the virus and their body fights those low levels off quickly (whether because of the vaccine or their natural body defenses)

No they really meant truly asymptomatic spread, those that never developed symptoms it was all over the news last year and was the main concept they used to convince people of the need for masks.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Okay, so I read the study abstract linked in the article and their consensus from analyzing OTHER studies is that there really isn't that much actual, fully asymptomatic infection and that most previous studies have biases or don't follow up to find out if symptoms developed later on. Their best guess is that "asymptomatic spread" accounts for 30% of transmission BUT those people counted as asymptomatic may not have been fully asymptomatic. They point out a need to study this much more in depth in a real world setting and with extensive follow up to make sure the reported asymptomatic people are ACTUALLY asymptomatic. The studies they examined, they went on self reporting which we know isn't super reliable.

I have always doubted the "asymptomatic " spread. I also think we had quite a few diagnosed that were false positives. The change in guidelines and huge drop in cases support this. Most have some symptom(s) no mater how minor. For instance I have a friend who had the virus last summer. While waiting for her results she insisted ....no symptoms . She said maybe fatigue and a headache. We zoomed and she didn't look "well" either. I told her she was positive.

 

[Colleen27]

Asymptomatic really just means you don't have symptoms at the moment, not that you never will. I've always assumed when they said asymptomatic infection spreads the virus, they really meant pre-symptomatic.
Someone who 12 hours later has a fever and body aches very well could have been spreading that throughout the day.

And that's what the findings now are pointing to - that there is a difference between pre-symptomatic spread and asymptomatic spread that is understandably difficult to tease out in studies under real-world conditions. The attempts that have been made to do so suggest that those who *never* develop symptoms (which still accounts for a sizeable minority of cases, particularly it seems in children) are not efficient spreaders while those who are on their way to developing symptoms are, but any study relying on self-reporting is going to have some reliability challenges because how people define symptoms, especially the less measurable ones like fatigue or soreness, will vary from person to person.

Knowing the difference really doesn't matter much for behavioral solutions because without a crystal ball, a person who tests positive but doesn't feel ill cannot know whether he will stay that way, so at first I don't think it was an area of significant focus. But it matters a great deal for evaluating the vaccine's impact on transmission since most post-vaccine positives are expected to be true asymptomatic cases, so now there's more attention being paid to that nuance.

 

[DLgal]

Okay, so CBS story about how Biden thinks teachers should be moved up on the vaccine priority list says this at the end:

"The President has also said the U.S. will have enough vaccine supply for all adults in July, but noted that it will take longer than that to administer the vaccine to everyone seeking a dose"

As expected. And what about kids? It is expected that by summer, studies on the 12-15 and 5-12 demographic will have been completed, so when will we get enough supply for those kids?

It's looking like we will be lucky to get everyone who wants it vaccinated by end of year.

 

[Joe in VA]

Very unlikely it takes that long, we are closing in on 2M doses a day. That will only go up. 210M adults in the US, how many want the vax? 160M?

 

[Joe in VA]

That would be 320M doses, we are at 60M adminstered, that would mean we need 260M more doses, which at 2M a day would be a little over 3 months from now to have all the doses need on hand and administered. I imagine we can easily hit those even without the JNJ vax, but we will/should have JNJ within a month.

 

[godisney14]

Very unlikely it takes that long, we are closing in on 2M doses a day. That will only go up. 210M adults in the US, how many want the vax? 160M?

That would be 320M doses, we are at 60M adminstered, that would mean we need 260M more doses, which at 2M a day would be a little over 3 months from now to have all the doses need on hand and administered. I imagine we can easily hit those even without the JNJ vax, but we will/should have JNJ within a month.

Do you have a crystal ball look into the production and distribution of vaccines that make continuous 2M doses administered per day possible?

 

[DLgal]

And that's what the findings now are pointing to - that there is a difference between pre-symptomatic spread and asymptomatic spread that is understandably difficult to tease out in studies under real-world conditions. The attempts that have been made to do so suggest that those who *never* develop symptoms (which still accounts for a sizeable minority of cases, particularly it seems in children) are not efficient spreaders while those who are on their way to developing symptoms are, but any study relying on self-reporting is going to have some reliability challenges because how people define symptoms, especially the less measurable ones like fatigue or soreness, will vary from person to person.

Knowing the difference really doesn't matter much for behavioral solutions because without a crystal ball, a person who tests positive but doesn't feel ill cannot know whether he will stay that way, so at first I don't think it was an area of significant focus. But it matters a great deal for evaluating the vaccine's impact on transmission since most post-vaccine positives are expected to be true asymptomatic cases, so now there's more attention being paid to that nuance.

It seems like people who test positive with "no symptoms" would need to be studied daily for at least 10 days and they would have to look for biological markers of symptoms, like fever, heart rate increases, stress response measurements that are indicative of pain and inflammation , etc. Because people who don't think headaches or fatigue are covid symptoms are part of the problem with self reporting.

I read an article about how some smart watches (in one case, an Apple Watch) can measure things like certain heart rate variability markers and basal body temperature fluctuations that are indicative of covid infection and accurately predicted positive test results up to 2 days before a PCR test came up positive. In all cases, the person felt fine but the app correctly identified something like over 90% of the later positive cases. I think the Oura ring is also running a similar study. These types of technology take away the reporting bias. It will be interesting to see whether they become ubiquitous diagnostic tools in the future as many smartwatch manufacturers are developing or have already included sensors that can measure everything from blood pressure, blood glucose, body temperature, HRV, blood oxygen, etc. It's usually just a matter of gaining FDA approval to "unlock" these features in most smart watches.

 

[Joe in VA]

I don't have a crystal ball, but we are at 1.68M doses adminstered a day right now and production is going up every week. It seems like that should happen very soon and I think over 2M is likely within a month.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

This is my happy news for the day in my area that was reported on last night..hoping things continue to improve:

"The Kansas City VA Medical Center reached zero patients currently hospitalized with active COVID-19 as of Tuesday morning. KCVA said this is the first time since June 17, 2020, that it has had zero acute COVID-positive patients in an inpatient status."

 

[anniemae]

The important part of this is that it says "access to" a vaccine. Not a vaccine in people's arms. As a 42 year old healthy SAHM, I will "have access to" a vaccine whenever they open up appointments to people in my demographic. That doesn't mean it will be quick or easy to get the actual vaccine.

In my state, people over 75 have had "access to" vaccines since late December. Many are still waiting for their turn.

I'm more interested in the timeline of when the majority of Americans will have been FULLY VACCINATED.

I think May is when it will be available to phase 3, which I assume is "everyone who is left." I think Fauci is saying it will take longer than anticipated because the original predictions were based on JnJ having more vaccine doses available.
This is what Fauci is saying:

"It may take until June, July and August to finally get everyone vaccinated. When you hear about how long it's going to take to get the overwhelming proportion of the population vaccinated, I don't think anybody disagrees that that's going to be well to the end of the summer and we get into early fall," he said.

 

[Joe in VA]

Anecdotal, but hearing similar things elsewhere. Have a nurse friend in Detroit and his unit has 0 covid patients for the first time since last March.

 

[godisney14]

No. There are many papers out that state asymptomatic spread is extremely unlikely, if at all. The problem is that pre-symptomatic accounts for a good amount of transmission.

Here is a study that was published in late November. In Wuhan, China, contract tracing showed zero cases from contact with an asymptomatic person.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Now you believe in China’s data?

I agree but if the numbers keep dropping and stay low then they won't really have a reason to block anyone from traveling. It is all going to come down to the rates.

True. But, so far, the cases daily in the US compared to other countries is a staggering difference, especially compared to Asian/NZ/Aus nations (ie. 64,000/day vs 10 per day)

Mid to late May...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/dr-...d-vaccine-availability-in-the-us-to-may-.html

Article says mid-to-late May or early June.

But, has any prediction of the vaccine rollout been on time or earlier than expected so far?

 

[Jonfw2]

Now you believe in China’s data?


True. But, so far, the cases daily in the US compared to other countries is a staggering difference, especially compared to Asian/NZ/Aus nations (ie. 64,000/day vs 10 per day)



Article says mid-to-late May or early June.

But, has any prediction of the vaccine administration been on time or earlier than expected so far?

Yes. We were told it would take at least 4 years. It took 9 months.

Edit: in no way do I find this funny, and I'm not certain why anyone else would.

 

[godisney14]

Yes. We were told it would take at least 4 years. It took 9 months.

That it would take 4 years for the mRNA vaccines to be rolled out? Who and when was that said?

 

[DLgal]

Yes. We were told it would take at least 4 years. It took 9 months.

We were told what would take 4 years?

 

[Jonfw2]

We were told what would take 4 years?

To develop a vaccine.

 

[Jonfw2]

https://coronavirus.nautil.us/until-now-whats-the-quickest-a-vaccine-has-ever-been-developed/
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/it...ears-can-the-world-really-pull-it-off-in-one/
https://discoveries.childrenshospital.org/covid-19-vaccine/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...rus-vaccine-could-take-way-longer-than-a-year

 

[DLgal]

To develop a vaccine.

We were never told that. Right out the gate, they were hopeful for at least ONE vaccine available in 2021. Those articles talk about previous vaccine development, but the mRNA vaccines were fast tracked due to previous years of research and the EUA being used.

 

[Jonfw2]

We were never told that. Right out the gate, they were hopeful for at least ONE vaccine available in 2021. Those articles talk about previous vaccine development, but the mRNA vaccines were fast tracked due to previous years of research and the EUA being used.

New Scientist Magazine, April 2020: "It's still likely to be years and vaccination may not even be possible".

Ohio State Wexner Med School, April 2020: "Why it may be years before there's a vaccine for Covid 19".

CNN, April 2020: "Covid vaccine in 18 months? Experts are skeptical".