CBS Documentary on 1976 Swine Flu with Dan Rather

[N.Bailey]

[QUOTE="Got Disney";34147556]
snip

And it bugs me that the only time now we here of someone for sure having H1N1 is when they die.....yup another death from H1N1....fine but how about the majority of those that have had it and came out fine.
And the fact that they are not taking there time and money anymore to really test everyone, instead they just say...Yup your sick must be the H1N1 so will report it as such. Oh because the seasonal flu is not here yet...when it is....bugs me also

Sorry I am not that trusting of the CDC or our GOV to give us the correct count.[/QUOTE]

Well, this doesn't bug me so much. They are treating people as if they are infected, and I doubt treatment would differ between seasonal flu and swine. They are just covering their basis (which only bothers me to the point that these drugs start becoming resistant).

They are not counting any unconfirmed cases in any statistic that makes up the total infected with swine. However, all deaths are listed because at that point, those confirmation tests are always run (I guess I should be careful using the term always because there may have been a few exceptions).

I think it boils down to the fact that resources (not only talking $$$) just aren't there to track everyone effected. The rapid tests are faulty, and with so few labs having the ability to run the confirmatory testing, it's really not a possibility. It's really too bad though because that type of data could maybe really come in handy on down the road.

I do get the "fear" everyone has though. 1 death is too many, and the 90% of the deaths with seasonal flu are with the elderly. When you're talking about young, vital, vivacious, people, it just shocks that much more. Add into the mix that the death toll itself is higher because more people are being affected, and that too causes shock and fear in people. Then add in that the media latches on to all these young deaths and that too adds more. We're not suppose to bury our children, so when that happens, it really puts the fear into people and we will all probably always worry more about our children than we ever will ourselves.

 

[N.Bailey]

Since seasonal flu has not started, how do you know what the percentage of H1N1 deaths will be compared to seasonal flu?

Reading this again, I'm not really sure what you're asking. We have a well documented history where seasonal flu is concerned that we can use to compare and contrast. As a matter of fact, since so few cases of H1N1 are even being tested, I fully believe they will use past statistics to try and ascertain the differences. Doctors aren't able to look at you and say exactly what you have without further testing. This is just going to all be lumped together in the end, IMO. The resources just aren't there to test everyone to know who has what and since treatment is the same for both, it doesn't move it to any priority list.

Deaths however will probably be tested in most cases. So our death tolls themselves should be fairly accurate.

 

["Got Disney"]

I found this articla interesting....seems a lot of people have already been infected the H1N1...and seems that out of that number of 5.7 million who have already been infected... there have been a total of 1,000 deaths....114 of which are children. Did not realize that there were that many already infected. That would so far make 1,000 deaths out of 5.7 million infected.


http://feeds.foxnews.com/~r/foxnews/latest/~3/eMAwz12GK8Y/0,2933,570565,00.html


CDC: 114 Children Dead From H1N1; Vaccine Shortages Continue

Friday, October 30, 2009

Heath officials say swine flu has caused at least 19 more children's deaths — the largest one-week increase since the pandemic started in April.
At least 114 children have died from swine flu complications since the spring. That's up from 95 reported a week ago. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the statistics on Friday.
CDC Director Thomas Frieden says more Tamiflu for children has been released from a national medicine stockpile. There have been spot shortages of the children's version of the swine flu treatment.
The CDC also reported that swine flu is widespread now in all but two states. Health officials estimate that many millions of Americans have been infected, though most suffer only mild illness.


More than 1,000 Americans have died from H1N1 since it was first diagnosed in April. About 36,000 Americans die each year from seasonal flu.
At least 5.7 million people were infected with H1N1 infected from mid-April through July 23, the CDC said this week.

 

[Geoff_M]

Not sure where Fox got that "more than 1,000" number from. The CDC release linked in the story shows 2,916 flu-related deaths from Aug 30 to Oct 24 alone. They don't show a split in the strain, but give that ~90% of the pediatric deaths are lab confirmed H1N1, I thinks it's safe to say that a comparable percentage of the overall death are likewise. Other noteworthy things from the CDC weekly update:

* Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak(!) of many regular flu seasons.
* Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year. Hospitalization rates continue to be highest is younger populations with the highest hospitalization rate reported in children 0-4 years old.
* The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for four weeks now. In addition, 22 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 19 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and three were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 114 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 12 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.
* Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

 

[teskak]

And for Geoff's comments on the interaction of H1N1 and H5N1 (bird flu).

Coming from Australia it is common knowledge bird flu is out of control amongst poultry etc in Indonesia & China where the local farmers live closely with the poultry, ducks etc and do not have the resources to vaccinate / cull all flocks. So far we have been lucky that bird flu is very difficult for humans to catch, but if it combined with the super-contagous H1N1 and then we are looking at something easy to catch with a 70%+ mortality rate, even when the patient is in ICU.

From what I understand the flu changes very easily, and the problem is when one host (person) catches both strains allowing them to mix, then potentially infect somebody else.

That vaccine for the 'low risk'' H1N1 might have enough similarities to the combined H5N1 / H1N1 to allow your immune system to recognise it and avoid the cytokine storm.

Then on reflection is the risk of GBS on the H1N1 strain worth it?

 

[barkley]

of those (even if the vaccine was easily available )who choose not to get it for themselves or their children, i think it would be interesting to know if they were around/of an age in '76 that they recall the panic/fear over what people perceived the vaccine was doing physicaly to people-and if that is impacting their decision.

i recall the panic people were in to initialy get the vaccine and then the panic they were in when initial negative reactions were first being reported.


the government can try to educate, educate, educate that the vaccine is'nt dangerous, but it's hard to convince people when they've been told that before only to see the government dump a mass immunization program in a little over 3 months because of health concerns.

 

[C.Ann]

of those (even if the vaccine was easily available )who choose not to get it for themselves or their children, i think it would be interesting to know if they were around/of an age in '76 that they recall the panic/fear over what people perceived the vaccine was doing physicaly to people-and if that is impacting their decision.

i recall the panic people were in to initialy get the vaccine and then the panic they were in when initial negative reactions were first being reported.


the government can try to educate, educate, educate that the vaccine is'nt dangerous, but it's hard to convince people when they've been told that before only to see the government dump a mass immunization program in a little over 3 months because of health concerns.

I was an adult - with 3 children back then.. I don't recall any "panic" over needing to get the vaccine or "panic" over the bad side effects that occured in the miniscule number of people who did receive the vaccine and later developed health problems..

If children - and healthy, young adults - had been dying then - as they are now - you can be sure we all would have received that vaccine..

 

[N.Bailey]

And for Geoff's comments on the interaction of H1N1 and H5N1 (bird flu).

Coming from Australia it is common knowledge bird flu is out of control amongst poultry etc in Indonesia & China where the local farmers live closely with the poultry, ducks etc and do not have the resources to vaccinate / cull all flocks. So far we have been lucky that bird flu is very difficult for humans to catch, but if it combined with the super-contagous H1N1 and then we are looking at something easy to catch with a 70%+ mortality rate, even when the patient is in ICU.

From what I understand the flu changes very easily, and the problem is when one host (person) catches both strains allowing them to mix, then potentially infect somebody else.

That vaccine for the 'low risk'' H1N1 might have enough similarities to the combined H5N1 / H1N1 to allow your immune system to recognise it and avoid the cytokine storm.

Then on reflection is the risk of GBS on the H1N1 strain worth it?

This is truly worse case scenario and scares me the most. A vaccine to fight the swine flu however will not give protection against this avian strain.

Since I believe my family has already had swine, we will not be getting the vaccine. I do not however believe anyone who does receive it is stupid, or silly. For my family, I just do not see any need to take on the burden of possible complications for something I think we've already had.

The 2nd a vaccine would be released (and until the virus mutates or mixes, they can't even begin to make the vaccine), for the Asian avian strain, I'll be there in a heartbeat.

I don't believe the avian strain is out of control however. The death toll IS high (around 66%), but thank God not too many people have come in contact with it. And thank God more for the fact that it's not easily transmitted H2H.

I'm not sure that the swine strain is any more contagious than your seasonal flu strains either. More people are involved simply because no one had any immunities to it at all. I have little doubt that we all come into contact with just as many seasonal varieties each and every year.

Not all bird flu strains are difficult for humans to catch, either. Heck, this particular swine flu is made up of 1 part bird, 1 part human, and I believe 2 parts swine. It's just that this particular avian strain hasn't mutated to a point where it's transmissible human to human. That is the fear, if/when, that mutation may occur. The Spanish flu of 1918 was also an avian strain.

The only good to come out of that is, the death toll will likely drop some when/if it hits more developed parts of the world where diet and health care are better. In the end, it's a real nightmare and if that mutation occurs, God help us all is all I can say. There will be no controlling it.

 

[wdwfan16]

[QUOTE="Got Disney";34147556]I was not talking about the flu itself being different ...I was referring to the Gov and CDC NOT acting different.....as in really not sure about how many people or if the vaccine will even work and so on....and the Hype that was so similar to 2 months ago when the GOV, CDC and the Media had the world coming to an end.....only to say...OH sorry, it is just like the regular flu....if you have noticed most people are running in to get the vaccine, not because so much of the info we are getting know, but from the info we were getting 2 months ago which had everyone including me running for the hills and calling there Docs up for Tami flu just in case....

Everyone wants this vaccine because the CDC and the GOV tells us in so many words that if we dont we have a great chance we will die.....yet same goes for the regular seasonal flu which has been sooooo lost in the conversation of getting vaccinated for that and the ramifications that may also occur if ya dont.

The fact of the matter at the end of the day is that the CDC and the GOV have been wrong before, will be wrong again.....and their words do not come with an exact science. Unless they are screening every single human that gets ill they will never know really the true numbers.

And it bugs me that the only time now we here of someone for sure having H1N1 is when they die.....yup another death from H1N1....fine but how about the majority of those that have had it and came out fine.
And the fact that they are not taking there time and money anymore to really test everyone, instead they just say...Yup your sick must be the H1N1 so will report it as such. Oh because the seasonal flu is not here yet...when it is....bugs me also

Sorry I am not that trusting of the CDC or our GOV to give us the correct count.[/QUOTE]

Generalize much??

I get the regular flu shot each year and I want this shot but it is not because I am a sheep and following what the CDC says. I got the regular flu shot earlier this year.

 

[Deb in IA]

Reading this again, I'm not really sure what you're asking. We have a well documented history where seasonal flu is concerned that we can use to compare and contrast.

This flu season is so atypical, it is not valid to compare to historical data.

We've not had a novel pandemic strain overlap with seasonal flu. No one knows yet how they will interact - will there be cross-immunity, or will there be increased suseptibility?

The H1N1 is behaving in a very usual manner in many respects. The early peak last spring, this current wave, and a predicted 3rd wave next spring are all very unusual and not something that we have seen before. And the death rate continues to climb, at a higher than expected rate, in many cases of previously healthy people makes this very worrisome.

Time will tell what the ultimate lethality is of this new strain, but from all reports to date, it appears bad.

 

[N.Bailey]

This flu season is so atypical, it is not valid to compare to historical data.

We've not had a novel pandemic strain overlap with seasonal flu. No one knows yet how they will interact - will there be cross-immunity, or will there be increased suseptibility?

The H1N1 is behaving in a very usual manner in many respects. The early peak last spring, this current wave, and a predicted 3rd wave next spring are all very unusual and not something that we have seen before. And the death rate continues to climb, at a higher than expected rate, in many cases of previously healthy people makes this very worrisome.

Time will tell what the ultimate lethality is of this new strain, but from all reports to date, it appears bad.

When you say we haven't see this before, I'm not really sure what you're saying. We have seen it before. The years were 1918 and 1919. It came in 3 waves. It started in the spring of 1918 and ended in the spring of 1919 with estimates of between 50 and as high as 100 million dead.

It's not documented as well as we'd like, but there is indeed a documented history here.

It also doesn't appear BAD because incidences of death are lower than seasonal strains. They are bad in the sense that there will be more deaths involved and that 1 is too many, but speaking statistically alone, the death % are extremely low. Could that change? Absolutely, but we are not there right now.

 

[Deb in IA]

When you say we haven't see this before, I'm not really sure what you're saying. We have seen it before. The years were 1918 and 1919. It came in 3 waves. It started in the spring of 1918 and ended in the spring of 1919 with estimates of between 50 and as high as 100 million dead.

Again, NOT comparable.

What you are talking about is epidemiology. And you cannot compare 2009 to 1918 and 1919.

Here's just one reason (there are many) they are not comparable - the use of vaccinations and anti-virals, none of which were available in 1918. And antibiotics, again not available in 1918, but could have prevented many of the deaths that were actually due to bacterial pneumonias, which often followed or accompanied influenza.

 

[DVC Sadie]

This flu season is so atypical, it is not valid to compare to historical data.

We've not had a novel pandemic strain overlap with seasonal flu. No one knows yet how they will interact - will there be cross-immunity, or will there be increased suseptibility?

The H1N1 is behaving in a very usual manner in many respects. The early peak last spring, this current wave, and a predicted 3rd wave next spring are all very unusual and not something that we have seen before. And the death rate continues to climb, at a higher than expected rate, in many cases of previously healthy people makes this very worrisome.

Time will tell what the ultimate lethality is of this new strain, but from all reports to date, it appears bad.

I agree with you on both your post and your assesment of the unknown complexities and lethality of this new strain.

I wish to thank you and Geoff for all of the news, feedback and of course your suggestions in regards to the seasonal flu and H1N1.



Deb or Geoff M, I have a quick question for you. Are people who have already gotten sick with the H1N1 able to catch it again? I was told yes but others keep telling me no.

 

[C.Ann]

Deb, I have a quick question for you. Are people who have already gotten sick with the H1N1 able to catch it again? I was told yes but others keep telling me no.

Deb, I would like to add a quick question as well.. I still have not been able to get the H1N1 shot (no mist for me), but since pneumonia is playing a big part in the deaths we have heard about, will the fact that I had a pnuemonia vaccine 3 years ago help me out at all if I'm not able to get the vaccine?

Thanks!

 

[Robinrs]

no offense geoff you are getting kinda annoying. Do you really need to keep runing too swine flue threads just to be argumentative.

 

[DVC Sadie]

no offense geoff you are getting kinda annoying. Do you really need to keep runing too swine flue threads just to be argumentative.

are you 14 or somthing? you sure do act like it. (i would know im 16)

I, for one am very glad that Geoff M and Deb are here on these boards giving out information and giving us updates as they happen, which neither of them need to do and if someone doesn't want to read about it then please skip over the threads.

Sincerely, Sadie

 

[C.Ann]

I, for one am very glad that Geoff M and Deb are here on these boards giving out information and giving us updates as they happen, which neither of them need to do and if someone doesn't want to read about it then please skip over the threads.

Sincerely, Sadie

I agree.. Helpful information is always appreciated..

For those who choose to scoff at the seriousness of this issue, I will keep you in my prayers..

 

[N.Bailey]

I agree.. Helpful information is always appreciated..

For those who choose to scoff at the seriousness of this issue, I will keep you in my prayers..

I really don't think anyone is scoffing at the seriousness involved. There is risk and there are, unfortunately, many deaths and more than likely, many more to come. I just think it's important to keep one's wits about them and not hit panic buttons.

Your odds of surviving are over 99% if you do become infected with H1N1. That's true even taking the confirmed cases released by the World Health Organization both in infected cases and the death toll. Since so few people are actually diagnosed with this particular strain, those figures are even more in favor of recovery than death.

 

[N.Bailey]

Again, NOT comparable.

What you are talking about is epidemiology. And you cannot compare 2009 to 1918 and 1919.

Here's just one reason (there are many) they are not comparable - the use of vaccinations and anti-virals, none of which were available in 1918. And antibiotics, again not available in 1918, but could have prevented many of the deaths that were actually due to bacterial pneumonias, which often followed or accompanied influenza.

No 2 strains will ever be the same, but I can assure you, they are looking at the historical data when determining the next step. We wouldn't even understand, "waves" if it weren't for past pandemics.

Science will hopefully always make progress. History plays a huge part in that process. It's impossible to say what could have been done during another outbreak that may have saved lives, but I can concur, we made enough advancements that many who died during the Spanish influenza may have survived if current medical procedures were available back then. That doesn't mean the 2 outbreaks can't be compared to one another.

Back in 1918, people weren't flying around the world like they are today. Population was significantly less and overcrowding wasn't as much of an issue as today. Everyone didn't have an automobile to go gather at the local Walmart, grocery store, mall, or restaurant. Schools we pretty small scale in most areas of the world at that time.

We are so interconnected today that if a strain like the Asian H5N1 were to go global and easily spread h2h, there would be no fighting it. Quarantining entire towns will be the only option that has any chance of success (assuming the death toll remains at just under 70%). The Asian strain shares a lot of characteristics of Spanish strain of 1918 too.

 

[TheZue]

You can add me to the list of people who appreciate your efforts and the information you share.

add me to the list

This too directly from the CDC website:
Every year in the United States, on average:

* 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
* more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and
* about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.
http://www.cdc.gov/Flu/keyfacts.htm

EDIT: and they are expecting a huge % of the population to get this strain of swine. Normally, only 5 to 20 % of the population is effected.

I also want to add that this is the first flu I ever remember anyone I know ending up in the hospital with it. My son's speech therapist landed in the hospital for a few days a couple weeks ago. I don't know many people who are sick with it, but everyone who has gotten sick seems to be getting REALLY sick.

I personally don't want that. I don't care what the government is telling me, i don't want to lose weeks of work (or the money ) or weeks of school for my kids. I'm not scared of dying, I'm scared of it being a massive pain in the rear. We are getting vaccinated, my youngest got his yesterday and you would never know it.

And as for 1976, who's to say that the massive vaccination effort didn't STOP the spread of that flu? Really this one broke out in one of the worst places possible, in a third world country where they didn't notice until their capital was almost totally shut down, and it's a tourist destination. Had it been somewhere that the government was more panicky maybe it wouldn't have spread so far so fast.