CBS Documentary on 1976 Swine Flu with Dan Rather

[N.Bailey]

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_14.pdf


Page 34 - Table 10 - Under Influenza. This data is produced by the CDC. This was the data for 2006.

According to their numbers 846 people died of "Influenza" in 2006. The whole year. And 689 of those were over the age of 65.


I am just tired of hearing that 36,000 people die of the flu each year.

This too directly from the CDC website:
Every year in the United States, on average:

* 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
* more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and
* about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.
http://www.cdc.gov/Flu/keyfacts.htm

EDIT: and they are expecting a huge % of the population to get this strain of swine. Normally, only 5 to 20 % of the population is effected.

 

[Disney Ella]

You can add me to the list of people who appreciate your efforts and the information you share.

Me too.

 

[N.Bailey]

I can appreciate that not every person who writes a particular article is in agreement on this, but by some estimates, they are expecting upward to 80% of the WORLD's population to be effected by this strain of swine. You may or may not like the link that follows, but I chose it because it's the first I ran across. There are others if for whatever reason someone takes issue with this particular link.

We know these figures are already incredibly high, yet, we're not seeing near the death toll that we see each and every year, even though each and every year not as many people are as effected with any particular strain.

That plays significantly into the equation that the death toll from swine isn't even on the same level as the yearly flu. Still, 1 death is too many and I am sorry anyone had to lose their life, or the life of a loved one due to this or any other strain.

http://www.tayyar.org/Tayyar/News/PoliticalNews/en-US/129012884316131644.htm

 

[Geoff_M]

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_14.pdf


Page 34 - Table 10 - Under Influenza. This data is produced by the CDC. This was the data for 2006.

According to their numbers 846 people died of "Influenza" in 2006. The whole year. And 689 of those were over the age of 65.


I am just tired of hearing that 36,000 people die of the flu each year.

The number is not bogus. Influenza often times opens the door to viral pneumonia as a secondary infection... which may then technically be the cause of death. No flu... no pneumonia... no death. That's the reason that the CDC classifies both diseases in the same category in that report and pneumonia isn't lumped in with other respiratory diseases like bronchitis. Often times you hear the better term of "flu and flu-related" illnesses. Take that reality into consideration, it easy to see how there could have been 36,000 flu-related deaths in 2006 given 55,326 pneumonia deaths.

The claim you're making would be like me saying that HIV/AIDS deaths figures cited in the press are overblown because the CDC report says that only 12,113 people died of it in 2006! This assertion would also overlook the fact that other secondary infections are often the actual killing in people with AIDS. I'm sure that some of those 55,326 pneumonia deaths are also "AIDS-related".

We know these figures are already incredibly high, yet, we're not seeing near the death toll that we see each and every year...

Honest question... What data are you looking at that shows that the mortality at this point in the flu season is below that we'd expect to see other years? The CDC mortality surveillance reports show the opposite to this point in the season.

 

[DVC Sadie]

[QUOTE="Got Disney";34130011]

By the way i have Epilepsy and found this on a board called Coping with Epilepsy....wanted to see what some fellow epileptics were thinking about the whole thing and what they were planning on doing.
[/QUOTE]

Yes, I have Epilepsy and RA and I went to get the seasonal flu shot, the pneumonia shot and the H1N1 vaccine as soon as it was available to me.

 

[N.Bailey]

snip

Honest question... What data are you looking at that shows that the mortality at this point in the flu season is below that we'd expect to see other years? The CDC mortality surveillance reports show the opposite to this point in the season.

I didn't say the season's mortality rate is lower than other years. I am saying deaths due to H1N1 are not hitting the same %s that we see every year with a regular flu season.

You can look at the numbers alone and they prove as much, but one would really need to factor in the fact that H1N1 cases are hundreds of thousands, IF not millions more than the numbers the CDC and WHO releases. Factoring all those cases in (and I'm not suggesting that's possible at this point), would lower the death toll even more on H1N1 deaths or related deaths.

The bottom line is, you have less than a 1/10 of 1% case of dying from H1N1 right now and I would say that's significantly less than that. Still too high if it's you or your loved one, but IMO, not enough to push panic buttons.

EDIT: and factor in that more people are being hit with the swine strain than the seasonal strains and H1N1 still has a lower death toll than the normal seasonal flu strains.

 

["Got Disney"]

DH is bringing my son with Asthma down to get his vaccine....the rest of us will wait. Since he gets sick all the time in the winter because he chews on his nails...he can wash them touch something 5 minutes later and he is sick.

He also does not like to eat his vegetables and cant swallow pills and hates taking any supplements...except his berry flavor liquid Vit D3 and Chewable Vit C....

Hope the shot does not make him sick with slight flu symptoms...we have tickets to the Lion king on Sat.

 

[C.Ann]

You can add me to the list of people who appreciate your efforts and the information you share.

------------------

Add me to the list as well..

 

[Geoff_M]

I didn't say the season's mortality rate is lower than other years. I am saying deaths due to H1N1 are not hitting the same %s that we see every year with a regular flu season.

You can look at the numbers alone and they prove as much, but one would really need to factor in the fact that H1N1 cases are hundreds of thousands, IF not millions more than the numbers the CDC and WHO releases. Factoring all those cases in (and I'm not suggesting that's possible at this point), would lower the death toll even more on H1N1 deaths or related deaths.

Again, can you please show me the numbers that you are working with that support that "deaths due to H1N1 are not hitting the same %s that we see every year with a regular flu season"?

As for the issue of under-reporting... I'm sure you are correct that the true number of cases is under-reported, however there's no reason to think that the same surveillance system would not have also similarly under-reported cases in prior years too.

The bottom line is, you have less than a 1/10 of 1% case of dying from H1N1 right now and I would say that's significantly less than that. Still too high if it's you or your loved one, but IMO, not enough to push panic buttons.

So you'd place the rate of mortality at somewhere less than 1:1,000 (let's even assume you're right and that it's an order of magnitude less than that... 1:10,000). Keep in mind that when it's said and done, it's been projected that 60% of people will likely be hit with H1N1. One of the things that seems utterly baffling to many of us, is this... The most often cited adverse effect of the flu vaccines is cases of GBS, as featured in this thread. Cases of this event with our flu vaccines runs at around 1:1,000,000 (in the worst case, 1976, it was projected at 1:100,000). So assuming the worst case that the 2009 H1N1 vaccine will be another "1976", people are willing to trade, due to fear and uncertainty, a 1:100,000 risk of contracting an illness that most people can fully recover from for a 1:16,667 ((370M * 0.6 * 0.0001) : 370M) chance of dying, or 22,200 flu-related deaths total. Those don't seem like odds many people would take. Even assuming that the rate of infection estimates are off and only 20% of people get H1N1, then the chances of mortality only improves to 1:50,000 (on top of that, note that only about 2-3% of cases of GBS are fatal).

EDIT: and factor in that more people are being hit with the swine strain than the seasonal strains and H1N1 still has a lower death toll than the normal seasonal flu strains.

Can you show me some numbers on this?

 

[Va-bear]

You can add me to the list of people who appreciate your efforts and the information you share.

Me three!!

 

[Deb in IA]

EDIT: and factor in that more people are being hit with the swine strain than the seasonal strains and H1N1 still has a lower death toll than the normal seasonal flu strains.

The latest CDC situation updates specifically says that "the proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza has increased and is higher than what is expected at this time of year."

And since virtually ALL of the influenza strains identified so far are 2009 H1N1 Influenza A, it appears that this DOES indeed have a higher than expected mortality rate.

http://cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

2009 H1N1 Flu: Situation Update
October 23, 2009, 5:30 PM ET

U.S. Situation Update
Weekly Flu Activity Estimates


Key Flu Indicators
October 23, 2009, 11:30 AM

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. During the week of October 11-17, 2009, a review of the key indictors found that influenza activity continued to increase in the United States from the previous week. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) increased steeply since last week in the United States, and overall, are much higher than what is expected for this time of the year. ILI activity now is higher than what is seen during the peak of many regular flu seasons.

Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year.

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. In addition, 11 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 9 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and two were influenza A viruses, but were not subtyped. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 95 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 7 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.

Forty-six states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity are unprecedented during seasonal flu.

Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

 

[Metsfan520]

no offense geoff you are getting kinda annoying. Do you really need to keep runing too swine flue threads just to be argumentative.

are you 14 or somthing? you sure do act like it. (i would know im 16)

I for one appreciate all what he & Deb post. And as others have warned you, you're very close to a personal attack. That's a no-no around here.

 

[N.Bailey]

Again, can you please show me the numbers that you are working with that support that "deaths due to H1N1 are not hitting the same %s that we see every year with a regular flu season"?

As for the issue of under-reporting... I'm sure you are correct that the true number of cases is under-reported, however there's no reason to think that the same surveillance system would not have also similarly under-reported cases in prior years too.

So you'd place the rate of mortality at somewhere less than 1:1,000 (let's even assume you're right and that it's an order of magnitude less than that... 1:10,000). Keep in mind that when it's said and done, it's been projected that 60% of people will likely be hit with H1N1. One of the things that seems utterly baffling to many of us, is this... The most often cited adverse effect of the flu vaccines is cases of GBS, as featured in this thread. Cases of this event with our flu vaccines runs at around 1:1,000,000 (in the worst case, 1976, it was projected at 1:100,000). So assuming the worst case that the 2009 H1N1 vaccine will be another "1976", people are willing to trade, due to fear and uncertainty, a 1:100,000 risk of contracting an illness that most people can fully recover from for a 1:16,667 ((370M * 0.6 * 0.0001) : 370M) chance of dying, or 22,200 flu-related deaths total. Those don't seem like odds many people would take. Even assuming that the rate of infection estimates are off and only 20% of people get H1N1, then the chances of mortality only improves to 1:50,000 (on top of that, note that only about 2-3% of cases of GBS are fatal).

Can you show me some numbers on this?

For starters, some believe upward to 80% of the world's population will be effected with H1N1 and I put that link upthread. That's a far cry from the 5 to 20% that are normally effected by the seasonal strains. That too I linked to upthread directly from the CDC. Is 80% too optimistic? I wouldn't have a clue, but since there is no tracking in place to determine how many have truly been affected with H1N1, it's impossible to determine one way or the other. We do know however that no one had immunity (unless some had natural immunity and again, no way of tracking that).

I did see that you choose to go with the 20% figure of seasonal flu exposure too, but the CDC states it's 5 to 20%, yet went with a 50% figure when that suited too.

As for flu being under reported, I can concur that it's probably true in both situations, however, when we're talking a difference between 20% to 80% total cases by population, that's a heck of a lot more where H1N1 is concerned.

Here is from the WHO's site:
Over 414945 infected
At least 4999
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_10_23/en/index.html

I realize that's just over 1%, however, the only cases counted among the infected are those from confirmed cases. Since we know how few are actually tested, only an idiot could believe we have anywhere near a 1% chance of death from H1N1.

From a blog yes, but taken directly from a presser in this particular town. The same thing is happening the world over.

ON HOW MANY PEOPLE IN WILMINGTON HAVE HAD H1N1

Kamitsuka: That’s a hard question to answer because the vast majority of cases will not have a confirmatory diagnosis. We have 17 confirmed cases here in the hospital, but right now for example, the state is only accepting tests for confirming testing for those sick enough to be in the ICU, so the number of case is much larger than that. The problem is we don’t have a good rapid diagnostic test which is sensitive enough to catch most of the cases with accuracy. It’s really right now, a clinical diagnosis if you have signs and symptoms of fever and cough and muscle aches ansd so forth. That could be the H1N1.
http://pulse.blogs.starnewsonline.com/10422/health-officials-advice-info-on-h1n1/

Now tell me, they surely didn't say you had to be sick enough to be in the ICU before you were counted?

We know too that the rapid tests given out are extremely unreliable (the doctor told my son when he was sent to the ER from school that they're about 25% accurate). So, doctors are treating patients as if they're infected, but those cases will NEVER be among the reported cases even if they are actually positive cases of H1N1 among those patients. Seeking medical care is usually the way flu is tracked, yet, even if you seek that medical care with H1N1, your cases of being among those confirmed aren't very high. I understand why that is, but not having this tracking allows people such as yourself to believe the situation is worse than it really is.

I will concur with other posters however, that I appreciate any information anyone can bring to this thread. This is definitely not a subject to take lightly.

 

[N.Bailey]

The latest CDC situation updates specifically says that "the proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza has increased and is higher than what is expected at this time of year."

And since virtually ALL of the influenza strains identified so far are 2009 H1N1 Influenza A, it appears that this DOES indeed have a higher than expected mortality rate.

http://cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

You will always have a higher death toll when more people are involved. That doesn't mean % wise, this is higher than seasonal flu deaths. It stands to reason that if 5 to 20% of the population is effected you'll have less deaths than when your talking 50 to 80%.

 

[Deb in IA]

You will always have a higher death toll when more people are involved. That doesn't mean % wise, this is higher than seasonal flu deaths. It stands to reason that if 5 to 20% of the population is effected you'll have less deaths than when your talking 50 to 80%.

Since seasonal flu has not started, how do you know what the percentage of H1N1 deaths will be compared to seasonal flu?

 

["Got Disney"]

Since seasonal flu has not started, how do you know what the percentage of H1N1 deaths will be compared to seasonal flu?

yes it has....at least here in San Diego county it has....I have friends that have had the seasonal flu already,Including one of the Nurses I chatted with about the H1N1 vaccine

I know of at least 3 that have been diagnosed with the Seasonal flu and at least 3 friends of my one son that has had the seasonal flu. Matter of fact I called there moms to see if they had been tested for the H1N1 and they said yes and it was not that. They are friends of ours
This has been over the last 2 weeks or so...maybe like 2 and a half weeks.

also when I have called the High School to see and the Middle school to see how many cases of H1N1 that has been reported to them...and I am talking reported...in the HS 4 cases(out of 2400 students in his HS)..in the MS-0(out of 500).....they both told me that they have had seasonal flu however going around that has been diagnosed as such. So the % for that out of 2400 in the HS is much higher than the % of H1N1....much more cases of seasonal flu so far.

When talking to one of the Docs...Dr. Sheldon told me when chatting with him that he has had no diagnosed patients as of yet when we were talking about the vaccine and it's ramifications mentioned that he has had patients with the seasonal flu already.

So if the CDC is having this info on there website...it is wrong...or outdated.

However if they are referring to the flu viruses that are only in there seasonal vaccine and not the other ones that are trolling around than guess that is possible that those bugs are not out yet...but that is a play on words. WE have flu here and it is not all H1N1.

 

["Got Disney"]

I for one appreciate all what he & Deb post.

I do also but also do not agree with all they post......

 

[wdwfan16]

The difference between 1976 and now:

1976 - Only about 200 cases of swine flu and one death were ultimately reported in the U.S., the CDC said.

2009 - Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. 22 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported just week.


HUGE difference.

 

["Got Disney"]

The difference between 1976 and now:

1976 - Only about 200 cases of swine flu and one death were ultimately reported in the U.S., the CDC said.

2009 - Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. 22 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported just week.


HUGE difference.

I was not talking about the flu itself being different ...I was referring to the Gov and CDC NOT acting different.....as in really not sure about how many people or if the vaccine will even work and so on....and the Hype that was so similar to 2 months ago when the GOV, CDC and the Media had the world coming to an end.....only to say...OH sorry, it is just like the regular flu....if you have noticed most people are running in to get the vaccine, not because so much of the info we are getting know, but from the info we were getting 2 months ago which had everyone including me running for the hills and calling there Docs up for Tami flu just in case....

Everyone wants this vaccine because the CDC and the GOV tells us in so many words that if we dont we have a great chance we will die.....yet same goes for the regular seasonal flu which has been sooooo lost in the conversation of getting vaccinated for that and the ramifications that may also occur if ya dont.

The fact of the matter at the end of the day is that the CDC and the GOV have been wrong before, will be wrong again.....and their words do not come with an exact science. Unless they are screening every single human that gets ill they will never know really the true numbers.

And it bugs me that the only time now we here of someone for sure having H1N1 is when they die.....yup another death from H1N1....fine but how about the majority of those that have had it and came out fine.
And the fact that they are not taking there time and money anymore to really test everyone, instead they just say...Yup your sick must be the H1N1 so will report it as such. Oh because the seasonal flu is not here yet...when it is....bugs me also

Sorry I am not that trusting of the CDC or our GOV to give us the correct count.

 

[N.Bailey]

Since seasonal flu has not started, how do you know what the percentage of H1N1 deaths will be compared to seasonal flu?

Like, Got Disney, has stated, we too are seeing seasonal flu in Pennsylvania.