Cases rising or dropping by you?

[RamblingMad]

New record in WI today....3100+ cases. And no end in sight.

So sad. I don’t get what’s going on in WI.

 

[Jrb1979]

So sad. I don’t get what’s going on in WI.

I can tell you the answer and it's also happening here in Ontario. We just set a record of most new cases with 939. The answers are 2 big things. First the people under 40 just don't care as that's where the majority of the cases here are from. And 2 people aren't willing to stay home when they are sick. I take that from the fact there has been more then a few times cases are traced back to family gatherings.

What should be told to people on repeat. IF YOU ARE SICK STAY HOME. I'm including everything. Even if you feel it's just a case of the sniffles.

 

[ronandannette]

I really think that this ties to the fact that testing was very low in Q1 and even into Q2 in many countries. Also, the virus was around in 2019, just not identified. Combine that with more recent studies about how many people are asymptomatic and remain so, yet test positive, and it is clear that this is not the same situation that caused the extreme reactions back in March.

So it would seem. I've just watched a (very credible-seeming) video that mentions having found evidence of cases in Brazil and other places last fall. It also discussed the idea that many of what were assumed to be asymptomatic cases were actually tests that picked up virus fragments (their words) and non-live, degraded virus in the systems of people who had Covid a good while before anyone knew what Covid was.

 

[JimMIA]

Florida reported 171 deaths today. Only 15 are from October. July had 47 and August had 73.

I am trying to find a credible source of how Florida is reporting deaths. A 3 month lag just seems unacceptable.

I believe Florida DOH is reporting Covid deaths as they are reported to Florida DOH. The problem is that deaths are reported in two ways -- by individual physicians, or by county Medical Examiners if the patient's physician doesn't do it. ME determinations may or may not involve an autopsy.

Once the determination of cause of death is made, a Death Certificate is issued by the Medical Examiner's office and it is submitted to Florida DOH. Until that submission, the State of Florida doesn't even know the person has died no matter what their cause of death.

Sometimes there are understandable delays in making the determination of cause of death. For example, a toxicology report takes several weeks normally, and can take much longer. Some types of lab reports on tissue samples can also take time.

And then, sometimes there are just dumb reasons for the delays. The individual physician determined the cause of death at the time of death, but just didn't get around to doing the paperwork. Once their paperwork is submitted to the Medical Examiner, sometimes there are questions that have to be resolved. The same is true for the lab testing -- sometimes the testing answers all questions, sometimes it creates new questions...and more delay.

Bottom line, the number of deaths is not really a number that tells much about how we are doing right now. Positivity rates and hospitalization rates tell us a lot more of what we need to know, and are also much more timely.

 

[LuvOrlando]

I wonder was thinking about this the other day and did a bit of reading, lately have been considering if people would be more cautious if the transmission rate in little kids was more closely monitored? My suspicion is that numbers for both volume and transmission could easily jump exponentially if this huge segment of our population were to be added into the mix. Keep in mind these little huggable munchkins will be crawling into laps all over the place in a little over a months time, it will be tough for families to say no if grandparents and great grandparents start making sad pleas for a visit because neighbor so-and-so gets visitors from his/her family all the time and so-and-so is just fine.
Read about it a bit then let it sink in
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/upshot/children-testing-shortfalls-virus.html
No idea what to do about it but I wonder why it's not part of the conversation.

 

[piglet1979]

Ohio is reporting 1840 cases in the 24 hours. This is, I think, the highest number we have had. If it is not the highest then it is the highest since like April or May.

 

[bavaria]

No idea what to do about it but I wonder why it's not part of the conversation.

Canada has a solution. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...d-spit-test-school-aged-children-bc-1.5728927

And in many countries in Europe and in Asia where school resumed back in May, there has not been a rise in cases attributed to schools.

Of course, we have to remember though that the United States is a different world right now in so many ways.

 

[Pyotr]

I believe Florida DOH is reporting Covid deaths as they are reported to Florida DOH. The problem is that deaths are reported in two ways -- by individual physicians, or by county Medical Examiners if the patient's physician doesn't do it. ME determinations may or may not involve an autopsy.

Once the determination of cause of death is made, a Death Certificate is issued by the Medical Examiner's office and it is submitted to Florida DOH. Until that submission, the State of Florida doesn't even know the person has died no matter what their cause of death.

Sometimes there are understandable delays in making the determination of cause of death. For example, a toxicology report takes several weeks normally, and can take much longer. Some types of lab reports on tissue samples can also take time.

And then, sometimes there are just dumb reasons for the delays. The individual physician determined the cause of death at the time of death, but just didn't get around to doing the paperwork. Once their paperwork is submitted to the Medical Examiner, sometimes there are questions that have to be resolved. The same is true for the lab testing -- sometimes the testing answers all questions, sometimes it creates new questions...and more delay.

Bottom line, the number of deaths is not really a number that tells much about how we are doing right now. Positivity rates and hospitalization rates tell us a lot more of what we need to know, and are also much more timely.

Interestingly enough, Florida did not include new deaths in today's report. They only provided the overall death count. Perhaps they realize that reporting stale information is not useful.

 

[RamblingMad]

Canada has a solution. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...d-spit-test-school-aged-children-bc-1.5728927

And in many countries in Europe and in Asia where school resumed back in May, there has not been a rise in cases attributed to schools.

Of course, we have to remember though that the United States is a different world right now in so many ways.

Canada’s cases have been soaring. It’s the cold parts of NA that are seeing their cases go up. More people are spending more time indoors. I expect this to continue until spring.

 

[Pyotr]

Is it cold up north? It was 91 here today. Sometimes I forget what season it is.

My county has remained between 3% to 5%. Hospitals went up a tiny bit, but not too much.

 

[RamblingMad]

Is it cold up north? It was 91 here today. Sometimes I forget what season it is.

My county has remained between 3% to 5%. Hospitals went up a tiny bit, but not too much.

I take it you’re not in Edmonton.

 

[ronandannette]

Canada’s cases have been soaring. It’s the cold parts of NA that are seeing their cases go up. More people are spending more time indoors. I expect this to continue until spring.

Cases here in Alberta continue to rise, yes. In fact yesterday was the highest-per-day number we have seen (364). But blessedly our hospitalization and fatality rates are a fraction of what they were in April. We have been cautioned by our Chief Medical Officer to limit gatherings, especially in our singular provincial "hot spot" and that is wise. If necessary the allowable size of private gatherings may be regulated downwards. But both the CMO and our Premier have very clearly stated we are not going back into economic shut-down - period.

I practically wept with relief when after many months of ambiguity, our CMO asserted again that our primary goal and only benchmark is to prevent our hospital capacity from being overwhelmed. Both she and our Premier acknowledge zero cases is unattainable. Of 2,097 active cases we currently have 77 persons in hospital and 13 of those in ICU. We are light-years away from critical mass. I think without further onerous restrictions, good compliance with the restrictions that are currently in place will continue. We are all becoming accustomed to this cautious yet reasonable approach.

 

[ronandannette]

I take it you’re not in Edmonton.

Why the specific reference? Weather in Edmonton on this Thanksgiving weekend is forecasted to be between 50F and 60F with sunny prairie skies. Lovely seasonal conditions for this time of year.

 

[bcwife76]

Is it cold up north? It was 91 here today. Sometimes I forget what season it is.

My county has remained between 3% to 5%. Hospitals went up a tiny bit, but not too much.

I'm in British Columbia (just outside of Vancouver) and it's still mild here. Heck, just a few days ago it was 25C (80F). Today it's rain and 17C (64F). We have the spit test for kids here in BC as a previous poster mentioned, a friend of mine took her son last week to do it and it was easy peasy. Wish they had it for adults.
As for our case count they seem to be leveling off, we have on average 100-120 cases a day (population of 5.1 million) and right now our test positivity is just a smidge over 1%. We are testing WAY more people now than we were back in March and April as well. One day last week the test positivity rate was 0.75%

 

[Colleen27]

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...08-20-intl/h_19c040f65a28849d81bb645afe25ab3c
NJ is spiking..highest number of cases since May.

But again, spike implies a particularly steep increase. NJ's data doesn't support that. Yes, highest number of cases since May... because of a long, slow upward trend and the fact that the initial spike was over by late May. Here's the graph of NJ case rates. What part of the pattern of the last few months would you characterize as a "spike"?

 

[HeatherC]

But again, spike implies a particularly steep increase. NJ's data doesn't support that. Yes, highest number of cases since May... because of a long, slow upward trend and the fact that the initial spike was over by late May. Here's the graph of NJ case rates. What part of the pattern of the last few months would you characterize as a "spike"?

View attachment 531163

It is semantics. Cases are increasing at a quicker rate each week. Over the past two weeks they have increased 65%. That to me says they are starting to spike over what they were in the summer.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Cases are really up in NJ. 1301 yesterday, which was a big jump. In the 800s today. This was expected, but it still sucks. I read today that Broadway is going to remain closed until June of 2021. That is just unbelievably sad. We won't get completely back to anything close to normal until there's a vaccine that is safe, trusted and widely available. Such a shame.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Yesterday, we set a record with 22 states over 1,000 new cases.
And today we broke it with 23.
Looking at the new cases graph, we're heading back up a bit now. We might clear 60k today. That's not a record because we don't have any state up near 10,000 like we did when we were setting records.

 

[Jrb1979]

Cases here in Alberta continue to rise, yes. In fact yesterday was the highest-per-day number we have seen (364). But blessedly our hospitalization and fatality rates are a fraction of what they were in April. We have been cautioned by our Chief Medical Officer to limit gatherings, especially in our singular provincial "hot spot" and that is wise. If necessary the allowable size of private gatherings may be regulated downwards. But both the CMO and our Premier have very clearly stated we are not going back into economic shut-down - period.

I practically wept with relief when after many months of ambiguity, our CMO asserted again that our primary goal and only benchmark is to prevent our hospital capacity from being overwhelmed. Both she and our Premier acknowledge zero cases is unattainable. Of 2,097 active cases we currently have 77 persons in hospital and 13 of those in ICU. We are light-years away from critical mass. I think without further onerous restrictions, good compliance with the restrictions that are currently in place will continue. We are all becoming accustomed to this cautious yet reasonable approach.

That's not the case out here in eastern Canada. 3 regions in Ontario are back to phase 2 starting tomorrow. Toronto, Peel and Ottawa will have all indoor dining, theatres, and gyms will be closed. After this weekend weddings can't be more then 10 people indoors.

 

[ronandannette]

That's not the case out here in eastern Canada. 3 regions in Ontario are back to phase 2 starting tomorrow. Toronto, Peel and Ottawa will have all indoor dining, theatres, and gyms will be closed. After this weekend weddings can't be more then 10 people indoors.

What are your hospitalization and ICU rates?