Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Heigh-Ho]

I read that he said we could be over the pandemic at the end of 2021 if we act now and tighten up the restrictions. Then I see everything opening and rules being relaxed. It makes no sense.

Are you reading something I'm not?

I haven't seen him say we would be over the pandemic by the end of 2021 at least NOT in the way you're making it sound.

His comment, if it's what I'm thinking from a few weeks ago, stems from the vaccine availability and its distribution and how long it takes to make its way through the population.

This is one of his quotes: "Dr. Anthony Fauci said it could be the end of 2021 before we get back to how our lives were before Covid-19.
He told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell he’s been saying all along, “I believe that we will have a vaccine that will be available by the end of this year, the beginning of next year.” But there is a caveat: “By the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccinations, and you get the majority, or more, of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen to the mid or end of 2021,” he said. “If you're talking about getting back to a degree of normality which resembles where we were prior to Covid, it's going to be well into 2021, maybe even towards the end of 2021.”

I feel like people are reading into things what they want unless you found a direct quote of him saying what is underlined (if you do please let me know )

I did find another few comments where he said: "“With a combination of a good vaccine together with good public health measures, we may be able to put this coronavirus outbreak behind us, the way we put the original SARS behind us,” and "Dr. Fauci said it is unlikely Covid-19 could be eradicated. But he said that it would be possible under the right conditions to remove it as a public-health threat. Whether or not that happens will depend on how effective vaccines that are currently in development or testing prove to be, how many people get them, and how well public-health measures such as isolating exposed or infected people are deployed, he said.“If you have a vaccine that is highly effective, but very few people get vaccinated, you’re not going to realize the full important effect of having a vaccine,” he said. “The fundamental goal is to get the level of infection in the country so low that when there are little blips of infection, you can easily control them,” he said.

 

[anniemae]

Are you reading something I'm not?

I haven't seen him say we would be over the pandemic by the end of 2021 at least NOT in the way you're making it sound.

His comment, if it's what I'm thinking from a few weeks ago, stems from the vaccine availability and its distribution and how long it takes to make its way through the population.

This is the article I was referencing below. Basically not meaning the virus will be 100% gone, but that we would be over the hump, so to speak. Not back to pre-covid, but close enough that we wouldn't be living like we are now. Basically what you were saying. He was also insistent that we need to be really strict this fall and winter. That is why I am confused as to why everything is opening up. Why aren't we listening to him?


Fauci says epidemic could be over in 2021

During the interview, Fauci said, "I believe that by the time we get to the end of 2021, if everyone gets vaccinated and we continue to implement the public-health measures that I have been talking about incessantly over the last several months," that the United States could "get to the point where the level of [coronavirus] will be so low, and maybe even, you know, close to absent."
Fauci said he expects a vaccine against the novel coronavirus will be ready by the end of 2020. But he explained that, once a vaccine is created, it will then take time to make and distribute enough doses to vaccinate the hundreds of millions of people who live in the United States.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

This is the article I was referencing. Basically not meaning the virus will be 100% gone, but that we would be over the hump, so to speak. Not back to pre-covid, but close enough that we wouldn't be living like we are now.


Fauci says epidemic could be over in 2021

During the interview, Fauci said, "I believe that by the time we get to the end of 2021, if everyone gets vaccinated and we continue to implement the public-health measures that I have been talking about incessantly over the last several months," that the United States could "get to the point where the level of [coronavirus] will be so low, and maybe even, you know, close to absent."
Fauci said he expects a vaccine against the novel coronavirus will be ready by the end of 2020. But he explained that, once a vaccine is created, it will then take time to make and distribute enough doses to vaccinate the hundreds of millions of people who live in the United States.

You realize what you posted is actually not what you said before? You said "could be over the pandemic at the end of 2021 if we act now and tighten up the restrictions. That is not at all the same thing as what Fauci is saying. No disrespect meant but he's not saying we could be done with it all by the end of 2021 if we just act now and tighten up restrictions. Our main hope lies in a vaccine and how quickly it gets distributed and how many people get it and how effective it is. It will be aided by having good isolation techniques and our ability to quickly identify cases and deal with them. Of course certain things will only help in the endeavor (like hand washing and mask wearing and engaging in less risky behavior) but when you're talking about opening things up just tightening that back down hasn't been said to allow us to go back to as much normalcy as possible by the end of 2021.

I'm sorry if I come off rude that is not my intent.

 

[amylevan]

This is the article I was referencing below. Basically not meaning the virus will be 100% gone, but that we would be over the hump, so to speak. Not back to pre-covid, but close enough that we wouldn't be living like we are now. Basically what you were saying. He was also insistent that we need to be really strict this fall and winter. That is why I am confused as to why everything is opening up. Why aren't we listening to him?

End of 2021....that is 22 months, almost 2 years. Are you implying we should all just stay closed for that entire time? It doesn’t matter that hospitals aren’t overcrowded or that the death rate seems to have dropped?

I am introverted and have no real need or desire to be out and about. I am loving working from home and hope to never have to go back. But my kids have started resuming some activities and seeing friends, and this weekend I really noticed a difference in their demeanors. It’s like they’re coming back to life, and I didn’t realize how dead they really were. 2 years is almost 30% of their teen years. I can’t in good conscience wish for things to stay closed after seeing that.

 

[anniemae]

You realize what you posted is actually not what you said before? You said "could be over the pandemic at the end of 2021 if we act now and tighten up the restrictions. That is not at all the same thing as what Fauci is saying. No disrespect meant but he's not saying we could be done with it all by the end of 2021 if we just act now and tighten up restrictions. Our main hope lies in a vaccine and how quickly it gets distributed and how many people get it and how effective it is. It will be aided by having good isolation techniques and our ability to quickly identify cases and deal with them. Of course certain things will only help in the endeavor (like hand washing and mask wearing and engaging in less risky behavior) but when you're talking about opening things up just tightening that back down hasn't been said to allow us to go back to as much normalcy as possible by the end of 2021.

I'm sorry if I come off rude that is not my intent.

Being over the pandemic is not 100% back to normal. It is being over this hump. I will word it differently. What I am saying is that we could be as back to normal as we are ever going to be by end of 2021. Yes, it takes many steps that we can do now before a vaccine is available, like wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding crowds. Fauci has repeatedly said he is concerned with the number of daily cases in the U.S. especially as we head into flu season. My point is that if Fauci is telling us to "hunker down" this winter, then I hear about everything opening up and it just makes me feel helpless, like we are not listening to the experts and doing the exact opposite of what he is saying. I get what you are saying, that tightening up is not the cure, just the band-aid until the vaccine.

I'm sure I am not explaining myself clearly, and you are most certainly not coming off as rude. I love to hear what other think and to have a healthy discussion. We all want things to get better and we all have different views about how to do it and are reading different articles etc. I just get frustrated when I see blatant non-compliance and people thumbing their noses at the experts. I think we would be in a much better place with this virus if we had all been more strict in the beginning. It seems that when people let their guard down, cases surge.

 

[anniemae]

End of 2021....that is 22 months, almost 2 years. Are you implying we should all just stay closed for that entire time? It doesn’t matter that hospitals aren’t overcrowded or that the death rate seems to have dropped?

I am introverted and have no real need or desire to be out and about. I am loving working from home and hope to never have to go back. But my kids have started resuming some activities and seeing friends, and this weekend I really noticed a difference in their demeanors. It’s like they’re coming back to life, and I didn’t realize how dead they really were. 2 years is almost 30% of their teen years. I can’t in good conscience wish for things to stay closed after seeing that.

Whatever it takes to stop this thing is what I will do. If we all quarantined strictly in the beginning we would not be in this mess now. I had read something that said if we all wore masks in the beginning we would barely have any covid cases now. But people are not listening and that is why cases are spreading. People are gathering, not wearing masks etc. Cases are surging. Personally, I would rather do what it takes now to get this thing under control, which means mask wearing, avoid crowds, distance etc. Not staying closed, just taking precautions. Then hopefully a vaccine will be available in a few months and we can be in much better shape next year at this time. We just can't see the forest through the trees. And I get it about the kids, they need to socialize, play sports and just be kids. Just safely.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Being over the pandemic is not 100% back to normal. It is being over this hump. I will word it differently. What I am saying is that we could be as back to normal as we are ever going to be by end of 2021. Yes, it takes many steps that we can do now before a vaccine is available, like wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding crowds. Fauci has repeatedly said he is concerned with the number of daily cases in the U.S. especially as we head into flu season. My point is that if Fauci is telling us to "hunker down" this winter, then I hear about everything opening up and it just makes me feel helpless, like we are not listening to the experts and doing the exact opposite of what he is saying. I get what you are saying, that tightening up is not the cure, just the band-aid until the vaccine.

I'm sure I am not explaining myself clearly, and you are most certainly not coming off as rude. I love to hear what other think and to have a healthy discussion. We all want things to get better and we all have different views about how to do it and are reading different articles etc. I just get frustrated when I see blatant non-compliance and people thumbing their noses at the experts. I think we would be in a much better place with this virus if we had all been more strict in the beginning. It seems that when people let their guard down, cases surge.

I think I was just responding because you said that's what Dr. Fauci was saying "I read that he said.." and it wasn't what he was saying.

Your viewpoint is absolutely valid of course and I can understand where you're coming from. I get frustrated too, sometimes I feel hopeless at times as well. A lot of people are all about the end of 2020 and can it just be done with and I feel that too but things won't just end because the calendar says 1/1/2021 and that sometimes even gets to me that it's still a long ways out. I appreciate your response back

 

[Colleen27]

I was thinking that when school started cases would increase in all states. It's so strange to me I keep seeing on the news a about states opening up more and more, allowing more folks in restaurants, no mask orders etc. Then it seems when the states drop the regulations a bit and open up more and more, people become more relaxed and you start to see people not wearing masks (or just covering their mouths), neighborhood gatherings start up, bbq's become more common etc. Just today I saw a big party at a house down the street with about 25 people, no masks.

I guess I have to wonder why governors are relaxing the boundaries knowing that if they do, the cases will rise. I know we have to open up at some point, but Dr. Fauci keeps saying that NOW is the time to be strict about masks and social distancing. I read that he said we could be over the pandemic at the end of 2021 if we act now and tighten up the restrictions. Then I see everything opening and rules being relaxed. It makes no sense.

It actually makes a lot of sense, if you think about the whole picture rather than just virus containment. No governor wants to be the reason the citizens of his/her state fall behind on rent, get evicted, have their utilities shut off, go hungry, etc. Since there is no more economic support for people out of work because of the pandemic, the pressure to reopen as much as possible is immense. Staying closed is simply not an option. My state, as a convenient example just because I know the numbers, lost about 25% of our total jobs during the shutdown. Our governor has been among the most cautious in the nation when it comes to re-openings, but having 1 in 4 wage earners out of work with no unemployment or stimulus left isn't really a viable situation. And while limited capacity and weak consumer demand is still a drag on the economy, reopening has led to about half of those jobs coming back... which means a lot fewer households are facing financial crisis heading into the winter.

This thing isn't going to be over until there's a vaccine. Shutdowns keep the death toll lower in the meantime but don't avert rebounds as soon as restrictions are relaxed in any way, as the numbers in the UK and other European nations show, and maintaining those restrictions until late 2021 without any programs that would allow people to continue to eat and pay bills in the meantime isn't in any way realistic.

 

[anniemae]

It actually makes a lot of sense, if you think about the whole picture rather than just virus containment. No governor wants to be the reason the citizens of his/her state fall behind on rent, get evicted, have their utilities shut off, go hungry, etc. Since there is no more economic support for people out of work because of the pandemic, the pressure to reopen as much as possible is immense. Staying closed is simply not an option. My state, as a convenient example just because I know the numbers, lost about 25% of our total jobs during the shutdown. Our governor has been among the most cautious in the nation when it comes to re-openings, but having 1 in 4 wage earners out of work with no unemployment or stimulus left isn't really a viable situation. And while limited capacity and weak consumer demand is still a drag on the economy, reopening has led to about half of those jobs coming back... which means a lot fewer households are facing financial crisis heading into the winter.

Yes, the this is the biggest issue. People need to work and many simply cannot work from home. I don't think we need to be closed, just keep taking the precautions that we know work until the vaccine is available. I think it's fine to have people going back to work, and get the economy moving. The problem is that when the guidelines get loosened, people just think, "we are done! we can ditch the masks and have parties!" Then we get set back and cases surge. I just really don't want another quarantine like the spring. It will be interesting to see what happens in FL over the next few weeks.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

It is really hard for me to imagine our current way of life remaining in place until at least the end of 2021. Will I follow whatever guidance is out there? Of course. But looking that far ahead and thinking of these measures for 15 more months is depressing. I think the upcoming fall and winter will be really telling, and hopefully we learn a lot more during that time. We really don’t know how things will play out a few months from now.

I’m also getting really down with the “only a vaccine will get us out of this” talk, because no vaccine is guaranteed and so many people aren’t willing to take it. Didn’t the Spanish Flu pandemic eventually end without a vaccine?

 

[VandVsmama]

Here in AZ, our numbers are holding steady and many schools are now offering an in person instruction option. I’ve seen excellent mask compliance everywhere we’ve been. However, snow birds from the Midwest are starting to show up and they better wear their darn masks and keep their cooties to themselves. Infection rates are up all over the Midwest.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

It is really hard for me to imagine our current way of life remaining in place until at least the end of 2021. Will I follow whatever guidance is out there? Of course. But looking that far ahead and thinking of these measures for 15 more months is depressing. I think the upcoming fall and winter will be really telling, and hopefully we learn a lot more during that time. We really don’t know how things will play out a few months from now.

I’m also getting really down with the “only a vaccine will get us out of this” talk, because no vaccine is guaranteed and so many people aren’t willing to take it. Didn’t the Spanish Flu pandemic eventually end without a vaccine?

The Spanish Flu pandemic should only be comparable to this pandemic in so much in how we handled it back then and how we are handling it now. The flu isn't the same as this virus which is showing to really want to stick around and is well at adapting to us as hosts.

If you want to compare it to today's pandemic the Spanish Flu pandemic according to wikipedia killed approximately 17-50 million (or more) people, had 4 waves, infected approximately 1/3 of the world's population at that time and lasted 26 months. That's not a pandemic you want to compare with anyways in terms of ending without a vaccine.

 

[Colleen27]

It is really hard for me to imagine our current way of life remaining in place until at least the end of 2021. Will I follow whatever guidance is out there? Of course. But looking that far ahead and thinking of these measures for 15 more months is depressing. I think the upcoming fall and winter will be really telling, and hopefully we learn a lot more during that time. We really don’t know how things will play out a few months from now.

I’m also getting really down with the “only a vaccine will get us out of this” talk, because no vaccine is guaranteed and so many people aren’t willing to take it. Didn’t the Spanish Flu pandemic eventually end without a vaccine?

I agree that this fall will be telling. So far, no local area that was hard hit in the past has gotten a second wave that is even close to the severity of the first... and I think that's a hopeful sign. But winter will really be the test of that, because weather likely gave the first hot spots an assist by allowing so much activity to shift outdoors and that's going to come to an end in the near future. Right now, the curve is pretty flat in Michigan although a lot of schools are back in session and have been for a month, most colleges brought students back to campus also around a month ago, and most of our business restrictions have been eased; we're averaging about half as many cases as at our peak, about a quarter of the hospitalizations, and about a tenth of the deaths. But a lot of people are still taking advantage of good weather to avoid indoor settings; churches are having outdoor services, families are opting for BBQs rather than dinner parties, it is prime patio dining season, etc. The big test, as I see it, will be if cases (and hospitalizations) begin to rise again when heating season starts.

As far as the vaccine, I've sort of resigned myself to that one. I feel like it almost doesn't even matter what happens with the case numbers and trends over the coming months... enough people with enough power have decided that there can be no normal without vaccination that even if our trends are clearly positive, there will be great reluctance and resistance to letting down our guard before widespread vaccinations. I've heard enough variations on school/events/gatherings/concerts/sports/plays/restaurants/church cannot resume until there is a vaccine to feel like a lot of people's minds are closed to interpreting new data as it comes; positive trends are never to be looked upon as an opportunity to reclaim more normalcy but rather as proof that we need to continue what we're doing.

 

[Colleen27]

The Spanish Flu pandemic should only be comparable to this pandemic in so much in how we handled it back then and how we are handling it now. The flu isn't the same as this virus which is showing to really want to stick around and is well at adapting to us as hosts.

If you want to compare it to today's pandemic the Spanish Flu pandemic according to wikipedia killed approximately 17-50 million (or more) people, had 4 waves, infected approximately 1/3 of the world's population at that time and lasted 26 months. That's not a pandemic you want to compare with anyways in terms of ending without a vaccine.

The Spanish Flu really stuck around too. Most of our modern flu variants are still descendants of the 1918 strain. And when it first emerged, in 1918-20, it was deadlier than the virus we're dealing with right now by a factor of 3 to 5.

I don't think we can draw many direct parallels between the two pandemics because the patterns of movement, and therefore of spread, were so different a century ago. But suggesting that this pandemic could end before a vaccine is widely available isn't all that outrageous. The most hopeful projections I've been reading are that we'll have a fairly effective (50%+) vaccine approved by the end of this year and enough doses to achieve herd immunity in the US (and probably other wealthy nations) by the end of 2021. That's pretty much the same amount of time that it took for the Spanish Flu pandemic to resolve on its own... and unlike the Spanish Flu, covid isn't seasonal and has continued spreading through the warmer months, which could hasten the natural end of the initial/severe phase of the emergence of a novel virus.

 

[cdh]

Cases in our area are maintaining at around 800 new cases each day. I agree that people need to work and their children need to go to school but I’m seeing people go back to normal life as if the pandemic is over. I wish that they would follow the guidelines but the reality is that compliance is worse each day than it was the day before.

 

[RamblingMad]

This is the article I was referencing below. Basically not meaning the virus will be 100% gone, but that we would be over the hump, so to speak. Not back to pre-covid, but close enough that we wouldn't be living like we are now. Basically what you were saying. He was also insistent that we need to be really strict this fall and winter. That is why I am confused as to why everything is opening up. Why aren't we listening to him?


Fauci says epidemic could be over in 2021

During the interview, Fauci said, "I believe that by the time we get to the end of 2021, if everyone gets vaccinated and we continue to implement the public-health measures that I have been talking about incessantly over the last several months," that the United States could "get to the point where the level of [coronavirus] will be so low, and maybe even, you know, close to absent."
Fauci said he expects a vaccine against the novel coronavirus will be ready by the end of 2020. But he explained that, once a vaccine is created, it will then take time to make and distribute enough doses to vaccinate the hundreds of millions of people who live in the United States.

Makes sense to me. I've been talking about this timeline here for a while. It's still a long time from now. We'll need more stimulus since our economic safety nets are a travesty.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I was thinking that when school started cases would increase in all states. It's so strange to me I keep seeing on the news a about states opening up more and more, allowing more folks in restaurants, no mask orders etc. Then it seems when the states drop the regulations a bit and open up more and more, people become more relaxed and you start to see people not wearing masks (or just covering their mouths), neighborhood gatherings start up, bbq's become more common etc. Just today I saw a big party at a house down the street with about 25 people, no masks.

I guess I have to wonder why governors are relaxing the boundaries knowing that if they do, the cases will rise. I know we have to open up at some point, but Dr. Fauci keeps saying that NOW is the time to be strict about masks and social distancing. I read that he said we could be over the pandemic at the end of 2021 if we act now and tighten up the restrictions. Then I see everything opening and rules being relaxed. It makes no sense.

Well, here in NJ, it's a balancing act I suppose. NJ only opened to 25% indoor capacity in early September. Outdoor dining has been a success in our area for restaurants that had the right location. But even with that, some didn't make it. For those that did, the first crisp day in the mid 60s brought a chill, and it wasn't from the cooler temps. They're all thinking about indoor capacity and if our governor will raise the limits.

But yes, it does seem counterintuitive....because our numbers are going up, people are getting more lax, and that's when an increase in capacity will go up. And I worry about the holidays. We won't have a vaccine yet, and millions of Americans are going to get together, whether it makes sense, or not.

 

[HeatherC]

Yikes! Just saw this article. Didn’t realize things were “that” bad.


https://www.foxnews.com/us/some-midwestern-states-25-positive-test-rates-report

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Yikes! Just saw this article. Didn’t realize things were “that” bad.


https://www.foxnews.com/us/some-midwestern-states-25-positive-test-rates-report

I actually find it more interesting where those states are located at, not the region itself.

The only thing I'll say about the article (which I've seen the issue in other articles) is it blends regions. It both talks about the midwest and western states and doesn't always separate out.

For instance "An increase in testing could explain why cases are increasing, however, hospitalizations have also surged in the Midwest, which isn't influenced by how many tests are performed. Wyoming and North Dakota had record numbers of COVID-19 patients in their hospitals within the past week, while hospitalizations in Wisconsin set records twice last week." Wyoming isn't in the midwest, it's in the western region.

There's also this one where it says: "At least seven states in the Midwest and Western U.S. have also recorded one-day rises in new infections. They include Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming." While it does say "and Western U.S." 3 states are from the midwest and 4 states are from the western part. The article is really talking about the upper midwest and mainly parts of the northwestern region at the same time (Utah being in the western region as opposed to the northwestern region).

I know it may not seem like a big deal but the phrasing lumps things together. I think it may be more helpful to be a bit more micro when discussing the regions, JMO though.

 

[LuvOrlando]

Nervously waiting for Covid numbers out of Centre County PA and found this, haven't felt a stir of hope like this for a while - smiling.

https://www.studyfinds.org/cancer-drug-ar-12-stops-covid-viruses/
This was on the radar a while:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5146995/
This one mentions why different ethnicities suffer more than others and seems this drug would better support minority groups, yay science!
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-experimental-drug-ar-covid-treatment.html