Cases rising or dropping by you?

[dvcgirl67]

After a month or so of declining cases my county is seeing a marked increase in cases again. We will be going back to Purple Tier (more restrictive) just in time for Thanksgiving.

Is that in California? What does "purple" tier entail?

 

[disneychrista]

Is that in California? What does "purple" tier entail?

Yes California. The purple tier is the most restrictive. It doesn't mean much for me personally. The biggest restrictions are indoor dinning and gyms not being allowed indoors. Retails must restict to 25% capacity. Schools are also required to be closed to in person instructions UNLESS they were open during while in the less restrictive tiers, then they can stay open. If an outbreak happens in a classroom or school they will be closed for the required cleaning and quarantine period.

 

[Turn the Page]

Our governor is going live in about 35 minutes to make an announcement. It is expected that she will close all bars and restaurants to inperson dining, require working from home unless it is impossible to perform your duties at home, and close all high schools for the next 3 weeks. Why only high schools I have no idea.

 

[Turn the Page]

On a side note I was watching an episode of The Crown today in which Princess Margaret goes shopping. It looked so strange to watch her walking around the store without a mask touching all the things.

It is interesting to me that I have grown so used to masks that the other way looks odd to me now.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Yes California. The purple tier is the most restrictive. It doesn't mean much for me personally. The biggest restrictions are indoor dinning and gyms not being allowed indoors. Retails must restict to 25% capacity. Schools are also required to be closed to in person instructions UNLESS they were open during while in the less restrictive tiers, then they can stay open. If an outbreak happens in a classroom or school they will be closed for the required cleaning and quarantine period.

I wish we had a color coded system like that. At least then you can watch your positivity rate and know what to expect. But, I guess at this point it doesn't matter what my governor says. The cases are growing exponentially at this point. And so it's time to get into "spring 2020 mode"....and really limit the number of times I need to go to the grocery store...etc. I'm going to stock up on canned goods, pasta...etc tomorrow, and go to my butcher and get a big order that I can vacuum pack and freeze. I've seen and read enough to know where this is headed. This article was the icing on the cake...this guy has been prophetic from the jump.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/

 

[dvcgirl67]

On a side note I was watching an episode of The Crown today in which Princess Margaret goes shopping. It looked so strange to watch her walking around the store without a mask touching all the things.

It is interesting to me that I have grown so used to masks that the other way looks odd to me now.

omg...we're the same way! Even seeing commercials where people are all together in large groups indoors is a little strange to us. Old news footage too. And...starting the new season of The Crown tonight.

 

[Turn the Page]

omg...we're the same way! Even seeing commercials where people are all together in large groups indoors is a little strange to us. Old news footage too. And...starting the new season of The Crown tonight.

Yep. I was reviewing season 3 over the last few days. After the kids go to bed tonight it's on!!!

 

[ORD2KOA]

We've got 10k+ cases today and the governor isn't doing anything except inviting all of you to come to play in our petri dish. It's just nuts.

 

[focusondisney]

We've got 10k+ cases today and the governor isn't doing anything except inviting all of you to come to play in our petri dish. It's just nuts.

I’m going to politely decline that invite, thanks anyway. Getting ready to cancel our Nov 28- Dec 3 trip. This will be our 4th cancelled trip. I was hoping it could happen when I booked it a few months ago. But the numbers all over are crazy scary. Stay safe!

 

[ORD2KOA]

Getting ready to cancel our Nov 28- Dec 3 trip.

Smart. We live here and are doing the same for Dec 7-10th. The parks are increasing capacity from 25% to 35%. Makes no sense at this point in time.

 

[randumb0]

We've got 10k+ cases today and the governor isn't doing anything except inviting all of you to come to play in our petri dish. It's just nuts.

"What virus?" - DeSantis

 

[dvcgirl67]

I’m going to politely decline that invite, thanks anyway. Getting ready to cancel our Nov 28- Dec 3 trip. This will be our 4th cancelled trip. I was hoping it could happen when I booked it a few months ago. But the numbers all over are crazy scary. Stay safe!

I think that this may be the only silver lining with this surge in cases 10 days before Thanksgiving.....and that is that a lot of people will cancel their travel plans for the holidays. And hopefully they will also cancel plans for larger Thanksgiving Day gatherings with multiple households.

On the good news front, the Moderna vaccine is 95% effective according to early reports. Between Pfizer and Moderna, they are saying that they will have enough vaccine to give to 30 million Americans by the end of this year. Healthcare workers need to get vaccinated first, especially those working at long term care facilities. We have to get a "fence" around that population...because the healthcare workers at those facilities are most likely to bring the virus in. If we can just get through the next 2-3 months...we'll be through the worst of this nightmare.

 

[ORD2KOA]

they are saying that they will have enough vaccine to give to 30 million Americans by the end of this year.

I saw 20 million doses (but I think you have to get 2 doses, so 10 million people), but it's still great news. Also Moderna's doesn't have to be kept at -80F, which is a huge plus.

 

[Kitty 34]

Our governor told us last night in a special Sunday night address that we're on the path for 1,000 deaths a week here in Michigan after Thanksgiving. Thus we are in what she is calling a "pause" starting Wednesday for three weeks. Sounds friendlier than a lock down.

 

[jlmarr]

Orange County CA back in the Purple (most restrictive) Tier. No indoor dining, bars closed, etc.

 

[Colleen27]

Ohio keeps setting records and our governor is threatening another partial shutdown like the spring. Frankly I think it is needed and will be coming soon. The number of Halloween parties I saw was staggering and I'm sure one of the reasons for our spikes now.

I'm in NJ, and I agree. These governors have to do something. We can't allow this thing to keep burning completely out of control and let our hospitals get overrun the way that many were in the spring.

The real question is going to be one of enforcement. Honestly, I'm not sure lockdowns are justified at this point... not because the virus isn't spreading, but because the vast majority of spread is being traced to private events that won't be impacted by any shutdown order for lack of enforcement resources/protocols. So why shutter businesses where the virus isn't being transmitted because people are hosting parties and spreading it in their own homes? It is going to create an immense amount of financial pain, but I don't think it is going to do much to slow the spread. The same people who had Halloween parties are going to have Thanksgiving dinners and football watch parties and Christmas gatherings, and no one is going to be monitoring what goes on in private homes to stop them.

Our governor is going live in about 35 minutes to make an announcement. It is expected that she will close all bars and restaurants to in person dining, require working from home unless it is impossible to perform your duties at home, and close all high schools for the next 3 weeks. Why only high schools I have no idea.

Because the data doesn't show in-school transmission as being a major factor, but in high school, kids socializing outside of schools are spreading it to one another at a slightly higher pace. And because high schoolers can (presumably) handle online learning from home without need for childcare, while K-8 students aren't old enough to be home alone all day while their parent(s) work. And because closing some of the schools gives the others a better chance of staying open at a time when sub shortages, rather than virus outbreaks, are forcing them to consider closing.

Three weeks isn't really an accurate description, though. She should have just been honest and said "until January", because no schools are going to close for these three weeks and then go back to in-person instruction a week and two days before Christmas break.

 

[BlueStarryHat]

Philly is in hard restricted mode as of Friday until at least January 1st, which means I won't be seeing my sister anymore. I get it, though. My Facebook feed is full of people hating on the mayor instead of hating on themselves, friends, or relatives who didn't mask up or social distance. New Jersey's restrictions are less strict, but now that indoor gatherings must be ten or less and socially distant I hope it means my aunt won't be having that big Christmas party in our basement.

 

[GreatLakes]

The real question is going to be one of enforcement. Honestly, I'm not sure lockdowns are justified at this point... not because the virus isn't spreading, but because the vast majority of spread is being traced to private events that won't be impacted by any shutdown order for lack of enforcement resources/protocols. So why shutter businesses where the virus isn't being transmitted because people are hosting parties and spreading it in their own homes? It is going to create an immense amount of financial pain, but I don't think it is going to do much to slow the spread. The same people who had Halloween parties are going to have Thanksgiving dinners and football watch parties and Christmas gatherings, and no one is going to be monitoring what goes on in private homes to stop them.

I do think the private parties are a problem but you can't really enforce no parties. What you can do is stop the wider spread to others through non-essential businesses.

Think of it like this:

If 20 people go to a private party and get infected that party is responsible for 20 cases. Now those 20 people go to 20 different restaurants or bars in 20 different cities and each infect 3 people. It may seem like the private party is the bigger problem but it isn't. The private party was the root of 20 infections but having restaurants and bars open accounted for 60 more infections. Those 60 people will almost certainly never be connected to that private party or even connected together at all but because bars and restaurants are open 80 people are now infected instead of only 20. 75% of the cases that came directly from one private party could have been avoided if we didn't let those infected people into bars or restaurants.

That is the real reason you aren't seeing more outbreaks traced to bars or restaurants just like you aren't seeing them traced to WDW or other travel destinations. It isn't because they aren't happening, it is because there is no good way to truly know. Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I do think the private parties are a problem but you can't really enforce no parties. What you can do is stop the wider spread to others through non-essential businesses.

Think of it like this:

If 20 people go to a private party and get infected that party is responsible for 20 cases. Now those 20 people go to 20 different restaurants or bars in 20 different cities and each infect 3 people. It may seem like the private party is the bigger problem but it isn't. The private party was the root of 20 infections but having restaurants and bars open accounted for 60 more infections. Those 60 people will almost certainly never be connected to that private party or even connected together at all but because bars and restaurants are open 80 people are now infected instead of only 20. 75% of the cases that came directly from one private party could have been avoided if we didn't let those infected people into bars or restaurants.

That is the real reason you aren't seeing more outbreaks traced to bars or restaurants just like you aren't seeing them traced to WDW or other travel destinations. It isn't because they aren't happening, it is because there is no good way to truly know. Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

How can you attribute 60 cases to a restaurant and bar as a result of a private party if you say more outbreaks aren't being traced to bars or restaurants? Contact tracing is the issue but it works both ways. If you can't contract trace adequately then you can point the finger at a business you don't have a clue is actually responsible. Private gatherings do tend to be easier to trace and it can become easier to pinpoint. If there's no good way to truly know then how do you know that 20 cases from a private party turns into 60 cases from restaurants and that 75% of them could have been avoided by whatever. You seem to be using funny math to prove a point (and yes I know you were making up numbers) but it's a contradiction that is actually coming out.

Let's spin it to something that tends to be more the route you see it in real life. 20 people get together at a party, they go home and then people they live with who weren't at the party have a very high chance (though not 100%) of being exposed to the virus. The people in the household then see other people. The problem is assuming that the same person who went to a private gathering also went to a restaurant or bar within 14 days and that that would have led to more cases than just being around people close to you which is more likely.

Private gatherings are a big issue but they are not easy to do anything about. For local officials they can make orders for restaurants and bars so they do that. No one isn't saying that bars and restaurants don't have a risk factor to them. People do wonder if the measures put in places like closing down at a certain time or completely have more pros and cons (pros being significant spread control cons being economic pressure and issues with compliance and enforcement abilities).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I do think the private parties are a problem but you can't really enforce no parties. What you can do is stop the wider spread to others through non-essential businesses.

Think of it like this:

If 20 people go to a private party and get infected that party is responsible for 20 cases. Now those 20 people go to 20 different restaurants or bars in 20 different cities and each infect 3 people. It may seem like the private party is the bigger problem but it isn't. The private party was the root of 20 infections but having restaurants and bars open accounted for 60 more infections. Those 60 people will almost certainly never be connected to that private party or even connected together at all but because bars and restaurants are open 80 people are now infected instead of only 20. 75% of the cases that came directly from one private party could have been avoided if we didn't let those infected people into bars or restaurants.

That is the real reason you aren't seeing more outbreaks traced to bars or restaurants just like you aren't seeing them traced to WDW or other travel destinations. It isn't because they aren't happening, it is because there is no good way to truly know. Absence of proof is not proof of absence.

You can see 2 sharp downward trends with associated with mask order beginning in combination with bars closing or later on reopening but closing at a certain time. The middle upward bump is required testing for staff and students as part of the college reopening. It's possible though not actually known if there would have been an upward trend without the testing for the college but you case see cases were flattening out of the downward trend in late July/early August anfd were ever so slightly increasing when the testing period began.

But each time the cases rise again after a certain point and now the cases are much higher. According to that county 10% of their cases is bars and restaurants, 18% are social gatherings like birthdays, family events, parties, 18% are due to living with other people or multi-generational households, schools are 5%. If you consider what that other person was saying you could see 36% of their cases connected to things that happen socially (non-bars or restaurant) or privately.

It's not that they aren't seeing cases attributed to bars and restaurants or that closing of the bars completely or at a certain time period don't help stave off a bit of increasing but they are seeing much more connected to what has been discussed a lot which is gatherings. Now that county in the last few days has placed their gathering limit from 45 to 15. Bars have had to close at midnight for over a month now.

It should also be noted that the county's population grows quite a bit when students come back so June and July would have been the major city in the county absent of the large amount of students and while students do live in the major city it's not on the same magnitude as when school starts back up.

I agree with the other person, from a public official standpoint there's only so much you can do with private gatherings. That county the picture is from said this "We believe this spike is due to people letting their guards down with lapses in mask wearing, attending social gatherings that allow for transmission of COVID-19, and people who are experiencing symptoms being out in public instead of self-isolating to reduce chances for exposing others"