Cases rising or dropping by you?

Well actually....

The study that many cited in which mask use made people less sick and thus not requiring hospitalization was withdrawn. The locations in the study that were citied as examples of efficient mask use had an increase in hospitalizations after the study concluded.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20208728v2

My comprehension skills are not what they use to be, Covid19 fog? But I read the article with a different conclusion.

Ok, I just read an upthread update. Whew! I'm glad it wasn't Covid19 fog!!

I just read this.. CRAP! :(

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/202...=fa@oh1bpzCAR5tTtKDLufGvaPMyKq8xCty6yRmOyuxY=
 
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I never said it was the end all be all of anything. Further, New cases per day is decently predictive of hospitalizations. And all three metrics, new cases per day, hospitalizations, and deaths are on the upswing. I repeat. It's out of control. I really don't mind people giving me lectures as long as said lecture is on a subject I need like knitting.

Whoops. A little bit too big
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Whoops. Missed it a bit in the neck. No dear, it doesn't make your hips look fat.......
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Sorry, my tone didn’t get through correctly.
I wasn’t trying to imply what you commented was wrong, nor was I trying to lecture you on anything.

I was just making a remark about how far deep in trouble we’ve gotten into in this latest surge. The fact that we’re clearly well past the previous marks on cases, and looking to now break hospitalization records.
 
Doesn't it seem like the strain has just gotten more contagious?

Not more virulent, but more contagious. That does happen with viruses, they often become milder, but easier to spread.

These numbers are crazy all over the world, it just seems that something had to have changed besides restaurants and bars opening, people gathering, etc.

I think these large numbers are a double edged sword for the general public. It can scare them, but it can also make them think, welp, I'm gonna get it anyways so why bother staying home... you know?

So, why are hospitalization numbers breaking previous surge records?
 

Our cases are quite high these days in the metro entirely between all the counties. Hospital capacity is measured by the combined systems within the metro so one hospital system may be experiencing issues but another may not. They do break down the numbers more specifically for our county but from what I've read there have been situations where other hospitals in the metro have had to send patients to hospital systems in my county but we haven't had to necessarily do the same (yet at least from what I last read). They also said they were getting patients from a few hours away. These are for a variety of patients being moved around.

Our county met today and opted to extend the mask mandate. This is the first time for my county, presently that is, that the mask mandate will now be separate from the state. Counties can opt out of the state mask mandate, my county has opted in since the beginning (July 2nd) but the state mandate will run out on Sunday and I haven't heard about extending the state of emergency (which can only be renewed 1 time every 30 days) but maybe that will come tomorrow (who knows). I had expressed in another thread that I wish the mask mandate would be extended further out anyways to at least mid-January so at least for my area right now that will be the case (though it's to the end of January).

Anyways the county also opted to add in "reduce gatherings to 50 people or 50 percent capacity" (the OR part is fairly important) and does not "explicitly apply to bars, restaurants, and retailers." Rather it's weddings, funerals (edited) and other such things they are targeting. However a caveat is the following: e=people "can submit a safety plan to the county for consideration." if someone wishes to hold a gathering that would be over the cap. (ETA: newer update: "retailers, churches, bars, restaurants, fitness centers, health care organizations and funeral and burial services are exempt from the capacity order, however additional requirements such as locker room closures may be included.". "Also exempt are election polling places, licensed child care facilities, schools and activities within purview of schools and court facilities."

The county next to me that is mainly a college town has done in the past bars closing at 10pm (haven't kept up if they re-added that) but they opted to reduce their gatherings to 15 people in the last few days.

Back to my county they opted to require restaurants, bars and other places that sell alcohol to close its in-facility hours at midnight (ETA: and must remain closed for at least 4 hours), but drive-thru, carry-out and delivery options would be available. The timing is really irrelevant whether it's 9pm, 10pm or midnight even though yes it makes little sense from contracting the virus standpoint. They are just picking a time to try and encourage people to leave rather than stick around longer with masks off (as you would be drinking/eating). I think it would be better if places spell out why the time is chosen because you can just as easily contract the virus at 10pm as you can at 9:55pm (or whatever random time).

Schools and churches are exempt from the new order (see new edits). The order also passed 4 to 3 so close. The adjustments listed above are effective from November 16th-January 31st.

At the moment these adjustments seem fine. The Public Health Officer stated: "My strongest urge for this is that we find something we can live with, that we can enforce, and that people in the community can do because we are in a crisis now and that I think is most important, recommendations we feel are acceptable in this area." In a nutshell they recognize something has to be done but don't necessarily agree (at the moment at least) that the restrictions during stay at home orders/phased reopenings are what they feel is best at this time. A lot of people have discussed enforcements, and economic strains. These seem to keep the restrictions as a middle ground rather than doing a 180 from being open to being closed.

ETA: They just added to the article: "County attorneys are drafting a civil penalty to fine businesses up to $500 per violation of the order." Additional ETA related to enforcement: "It would be generally only enforceable in unincorporated areas. And, while all cities are included in the order, cities within the county could decide to enforce it or not. Additional enforcement possibilities will be discussed later next week."
 
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Sorry, my tone didn’t get through correctly.
I wasn’t trying to imply what you commented was wrong, nor was I trying to lecture you on anything.

I was just making a remark about how far deep in trouble we’ve gotten into in this latest surge. The fact that we’re clearly well past the previous marks on cases, and looking to now break hospitalization records.

Ahhh ok. No hard feelings. Yup. We're in trouble. It's blown past 180k today. But I still don't as of this morning have final numbers for what is now yesterday's reporting period.
So far 183,625
40 states over 1,000 with one more state possibly over that there isn't data on. And I don't like to flip flop between sites because they count on a different time schedule.
28 over 2,000 Record
20 over 3,000 Record
15 over 5,000 That's a record.
3 over 10,000. Not a record. The only good news on the day if you can call it that.
There are some isolated pockets of good news. But not nearly enough.

Edit. Finally in.
Make that 41 states over 1,000. Record
Make that 29 over 2,000 Record.
187,896. We should be if pattern holds, be headed down towards the low for next week.

110,166 the daily low for the week, 187,896 the high. Both records by far and the week isn't quite done. We're a hair below 150k for the day at the moment and well obviously we're not going to beat that low and it doesn't look like we'll beat that high today either.
 
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Looking at the rate and where the chart shows right now, I’m going to predict we get to ~160,000 to 170,000 cases per day rate before we start slowing it down.

Last week when I commented the above, I was being hopeful since cases weren’t yet exploding as it reached around ~110,000 per day.

Obviously, now I see that I was out of this world underestimating the potential of the US.
 
Last week when I commented the above, I was being hopeful since cases weren’t yet exploding as it reached around ~110,000 per day.

Obviously, now I see that I was out of this world underestimating the potential of the US.

Thirty kids near me are having a birthday party right now. I'm convinced people don't care anymore.
 
Last week when I commented the above, I was being hopeful since cases weren’t yet exploding as it reached around ~110,000 per day.

Obviously, now I see that I was out of this world underestimating the potential of the US.

Oh, I know. I remember just several weeks back when it was all over the news that we would hit 100,000 cases a day. Several of the epidemiologists I follow on twitter are saying that we'll hit 200K by Thursday/Friday on our current trajectory. So many of these experts are sounding the loudest alarms that we need to shut down now.

Hospitalizations are a better indicator of how bad things may get, and are really coming up now, but as we all know by now, they lag case numbers by 7-14 days. So people being hospitalized now is based on case numbers in the 80-110k range.
 
Thirty kids near me are having a birthday party right now. I'm convinced people don't care anymore.
story of my life..... my neighbors Octoberfest party was a real humdinger...as was the neighbors down the stree with the porta potties in the yard and huge dining tents set up for the 300 people barbecuing that day,or the neighbors with a bounce house rented and a yardful of families at the party....it makes me cringe.
 
story of my life..... my neighbors Octoberfest party was a real humdinger...as was the neighbors down the stree with the porta potties in the yard and huge dining tents set up for the 300 people barbecuing that day,or the neighbors with a bounce house rented and a yardful of families at the party....it makes me cringe.

ugh, what a nightmare
 
story of my life..... my neighbors Octoberfest party was a real humdinger...as was the neighbors down the stree with the porta potties in the yard and huge dining tents set up for the 300 people barbecuing that day,or the neighbors with a bounce house rented and a yardful of families at the party....it makes me cringe.

Off topic but the bounce house comment reminded me- one of my neighbors who is one of the really insane “no one has a right to tell me I have to wear a mask and infringe upon my right to go to Costco or IHOP (both private businesses), and this is America with freedom (she yells into her phone video as she tapes herself being asked to leave places)”... this nut is the same person who a few years ago called the police on my then 9 year olds birthday party because the music inside our house and the kids laughing and screaming from the bounce house were subject to a noise complaint.

Soooooo taking steps to stop you from spreading a toxic and dangerous public health emergency disease at other private businesses = constitutional violation of rights crisis, but neighbors once a year noisy child’s birthday party in their private home = don’t have the right to harm others (with noise?) and police involvement. The hypocrisy, it burns (and also kills people).
 
story of my life..... my neighbors Octoberfest party was a real humdinger...as was the neighbors down the stree with the porta potties in the yard and huge dining tents set up for the 300 people barbecuing that day,or the neighbors with a bounce house rented and a yardful of families at the party....it makes me cringe.

Do you have a (whistleblower) number you can call for fine levie?

This is us.. Also outlines the newer new restrictions... sigh.

https://www.iheartradio.ca/610cktb/1.13948702
 
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184,514 yesterday

We just hit 4,395 in NJ today, which is the highest daily case number since all of this started....we're essentially back to where we were on April 4th. Our hospitalizations today are at 2,000, which is up almost 300% in the last *month*. We peaked at 6,000 hospitalizations in late April here, about 3 weeks after the high on April 4th.

Our governor has really been very good throughout this crisis. However, I'm not sure that his "surgical" approach now is the way to go. It would seem that a wider shutdown is in order. Maybe he's afraid it will drive people inside and cause more house parties, etc. I understand the economics of it, but a lot of people are going to die on this trajectory.

If other states see the same jump that NJ is seeing today, the country may top 200K today.
 
Down here in WI, from 8,000 to 5,000. I'm guessing today is just a blip and we'll be right back up there tomorrow or monday. My Dr. got married yesterday, 35 person ceremony. Today is his reception, 135 people. Apparently his father, a just retired Dr. was asking one of his former nurses if it makes sense to have the reception with that many people right now.
 













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