Can Someone Explain This?

[kristenrice]

I've been reading about the increasing difficulty that people have when trying to book studios and how it can be difficult, even at 11 months sometimes. It seems that the problem may have been magnified when DVC lowered the minimum point requirement to just 50 points for new members which increased the amount of OWNERS without changing the amount of available units.

I am a very "simple" person so here is how I will explain my question, please forgive me if this makes no sense

Let's take a week in January at HHI...

A studio for the week is 54 points, a 1BR is 108, a 2BR is 146 and a GV is 213 for a total of 521 points. Let's say that DVC sold those points to 5 different owners as (5) 100 point contracts and each owner wanted to stay for that one week....see the problem?? They have 5 owners but only ONE of them has enough points to book a room (the studio) for the week. DVC didn't "oversell", in fact, they aren't even sold out since they still have 21 points left. Even with banking and borrowing, it would be impossible for all 5 of those owners to use their points over that week, correct?

Is this the problem we are seeing with studio availability across DVC as a whole? The amount of POINTS that were sold were completely legit, but it would seem like there are more OWNERS with small contracts that can only afford studios than there are studios in the system. They didn't oversell the points, they oversold the small contracts, right?

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Yes... This gets magnified with the Bungalows at PVB and Cabins at CCR. Very few owners have enough points to book them, yet those points were sold to people staying in other types of accommodations.

 

[kristenrice]

...Let me add to my question...

If this is the problem, what can be done at this point to solve it? Those small contracts are already out there and the owners are already clamoring for studios, in addition to the many people who are looking to rent their points to those looking for studios. Building more studios would just add more points (and therefore more potential owners) to the system so that is not necessarily a solution. Decreasing 1BR/2BR/GV/etc costs to raise studio costs might help the owners, but it would probably deter new buyers which would be bad for DVD, so that is not going to be the solution either. It seems like adjusting the points chart just moves the problem around and spreads it out a little more throughout the year. I appreciate the effort and, even though we have been traveling a lot in October lately and it has increased our trip costs, it seems like an appropriate step.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

It really cannot be solved.

There is no way to fully distribute demand across unit types and across all 365 days.

(Another pressure you see with studios is seasonality. Points are sold to fill everything 365 days, but there is high demand for, say, fall studios.)

 

[mustinjourney]

in your hypothetical -- not everyone will be able to stay a week. Someone will be forced to bank, borrow and steal and stay in a grand villa for a couple days.

So essentially -- you're correct in your thought process.

 

[Sandisw]

When I bought in 2009, the minimum was 160, IIRC. But, you could still buy in smaller contracts. So, that put smaller contracts on the market.

Then DVC began allowing people to purchase only 100 points, which slowly turned into 75. Once they did, it flooded the market with people who bought specifically for studios.

I book studios all the time, even though I have 825 points. I also think that the raise in room rates that came with BLT, VGF, Poly, and now RIV, people are going to book them, even if they don’t own only small contracts.

DVC recognized that studios would be more popular if they allowed them to sleep 5 and of course, this allowed them to sell families less points which I think also increases the demand

 

[lovin'fl]

DVC really screwed the pooch by lowering minimum buy in while raising per point cost and adding the ability to sleep 5 in a studio. And adding those bungalow/cabins which allowed them to sell a boat load of points (cha ching) even though they mostly sold smaller contracts to folks who will never stay in the bungalow/cabins.

 

[Sanwich]

I can't offer any further "explanation," but I can re-emphasize that this situation was exacerbated by the addition of cabins and bungalows.

I will say though, that these kinds of discussions do tend to result in a lot of vitriol toward folks who "only" want to stay in studios, and I don't think that's really fair. Example: my husband and I (though we recently discovered the joy of one-bedrooms and plan to try them more often) only "need" a studio... we didn't buy a teeny contract, we're not out to mess with everyone else's availability... a larger unit is just not logically necessary because there's two of us and we don't cook on vacation. I think some other folks have made similar good points so far in the thread.

I agree that Disney is making the situation worse by trying to increase the occupancy of studios as high as humanly possible. I'm not sure there is really a way to solve the availability problem overall, though Disney does seem to be experimenting with ideas like the tower studios and the studio-and-bungalow-only Poly DVC (which gets a lot of complaints in the other direction for not having any additional sized units).

 

[sethschroeder]

DVC really screwed the pooch by lowering minimum buy in while raising per point cost and adding the ability to sleep 5 in a studio. And adding those bungalow/cabins which allowed them to sell a boat load of points (cha ching) even though they mostly sold smaller contracts to folks who will never stay in the bungalow/cabins.

I think the bigger issue is bungalow/cabins than the ability to sleep 5 in a studio. It wouldn't be an issue if they built more studios in the resort. A good example is they could have taken out 1 Cabin and 1 GV at CCV and ended up with 12-13 additional studios for the year.

There is zero chance DVC keeps up enough demand to sell out these resorts if they can't sell a 1 week Studio stay to a buyer which sleeps a family of 5 (or 4 with a friend/grandparent taking the 5th spot).

 

[lvt]

I want to get the cheapest stay with enough beds.

 

[Bing Showei]

There is zero chance DVC keeps up enough demand to sell out these resorts if they can't sell a 1 week Studio stay to a buyer which sleeps a family of 5 (or 4 with a friend/grandparent taking the 5th spot).

AKV, BLT and CCV only allow four in a room, and they sold out pretty quickly. In fact the last of that group did so at a record clip.

Up until about 2013/2014 no studio allowed five occupants unless the fifth was under the age of three. BRV, BCV and BWV, when refurbed finally got a fifth sleeping surface. Before that, you were on your own for bed, bedding, towels, etc. Those resorts sold just fine as well, prior to the refurb.

Five in a studio is a relatively new trend and certainly stresses the studio availability. But as you pointed out, it probably does help sell contracts.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I really don’t understand why people would cram in 5 people in a studio. The studios is small enough for 4 then adding the 5th does not make it better

I know it’s a financial decision more than anything else. For me I would rather have a more pleasant stay without the risk of tripping over my kids. That’s why we only do a studio if we are 3. Going 5 I would book a 1br Perhaps a 2br. With two teenage girls it’s just more comfortable for everyone that they have their own room. Another option would be to book two studios which I also could see myself do, that would add to the problem we are seeing.

When we go to WDW we never do rope drop and staying 7-10 days we watch the fireworks maybe 2-3 times. For us the resort plays a big role as we have a lot of resort time and that’s why the room also need to have some comfortableness.

 

[Bing Showei]

We normally travel 1BR for three. When we hit 5 with grandparents in tow, we bumped to 2BR, so I get the desire to stretch out. But let’s be honest, whatever accommodations a lot of us normally use, we probably have enough points to stay for 7 days in one or two categories higher, but instead we opt to stay where we do because it allows us to go more often (often with more friends or family), and it serves our families’ particular needs.

That’s all anyone is doing when it comes down to it. I wouldn’t fault anyone for doing what the system allows them to do with the points that they pay the same dues I do to use.

 

[Sandisw]

Before DVC, we crammed 5 in a deluxe hotel room so I can see why a family with 3 kids would do it, because they are probably doing it anyway.

When we bought BLT, we did it so we could upgrade to a 1 bedroom. Prices were not what they are now, so I venture DVC did it as a selling tool since deluxe hotels slept 5 and it got more buyers.

But yeah, I’d never stay 5 again..why I have 825!

 

[CanadaDisney05]

We are a young family of 4. While I would absolutely love to be able to stay in a 1 or 2 BR, there is simply too much of a point gap between them and studios. Most of the year, 1 BR is basically double the point requirement as a studio. We travel every summer (spouse is a teacher), and the cost of being able to stay in a 1 BR for our 10 nights would be astronomical. So it comes down to basic economics. Travel from Canada for a 5 night stay in a 1 BR, or 10 nights in a studio. We'll make it work in a studio as long as we possibly can.

If they rejigged the point charts and made the premium for the 1 BR to be about 30% more points, I would probably add-on and book 1 BRs.

 

[davper]

It really cannot be solved.

There is no way to fully distribute demand across unit types and across all 365 days.

(Another pressure you see with studios is seasonality. Points are sold to fill everything 365 days, but there is high demand for, say, fall studios.)

Actually, If Disney sees demand go up for one type of room during a particular time of year, they will increase the amount of points required for that room during that time. But they also lower points on another room type, so there is no change to the total points required for the resort. This how they distribute demand.

 

[lovin'fl]

In 2006 we bought specifically to get a 1BR with 3 little kids (eventually upping to a 2BR when they hit tween-teen years). Our 1st on property trip was at POR in 2005. We had all 5 of us in that little room and while it was fine, we were used to beach vacations in a condo where we had a master bedroom and could close a door between us and the kids. We wouldn't have even bothered with DVC if it weren't to get us that condo style room. Would have just stuck with POR and the like. And studios don't have 2 real beds so it's not even as nice as staying at POR, with kids. Now that we're empty nest, DH and I might do a studio to save points and/or for a short trip. But even we still prefer a 1BR so that DH can work in the quiet of the master bedroom (he always has to work a bit while on vacay). I also love to have the W/D in room.

But new families buying in and maybe going direct since they might not know about resale or they want the perks (like DVC priced APs). And direct pricing has gone up so drastically (way more than inflation) since even when we bought in (2006) that it really is hard for new young families to buy the 200 point contracts now. We bought our initial 200 point OKW resale for $76....at that same time we could have bought newly selling SSR for like $95. That seemed like a vast gap to us then (not even a $20 difference) but now....we just resold that OKW for $94 while the new RR is selling at, what?, $188. The gap is double price....DOUBLE. We would never consider buying direct because we thought paying in the triple digits was crazy. Yet, here we are...in triple digits twice over and heading to 3 times over in some cases (what is VGC going for now? Shoot, even BCV is ridiculously high). (We did end up buying 4 small add ons direct and paid way more than we wanted but to add on in same UY and a 25 or 50 pointer is tough to find resale)

 

[CanadaDisney05]

But new families buying in and maybe going direct since they might not know about resale or they want the perks (like DVC priced APs). And direct pricing has gone up so drastically (way more than inflation) since even when we bought in (2006) that it really is hard for new young families to buy the 200 point contracts now.

We are a young family, who just bought 200 points. The problem is, with a young family (and a wife who is a teacher), our travel times are bound by school vacations. In Magic Season, our 10 day trip in a 1 BR at our home resort of SSR is 330 points. If we wanted to "upgrade" even to a Boulder Ridge, it would be 394 points. A BLT Lake View (likely the only 10 day available) would be 438 points. Granted, we are going for 10 day stays, but even 200 points doesn't get us anywhere close to a 1 BR. Heck, at 200 points we''d really only be able to do 4 nights at BLT in a 1 BR.

 

[zavandor]

AKV, BLT and CCV only allow four in a room, and they sold out pretty quickly. In fact the last of that group did so at a record clip.

Up until about 2013/2014 no studio allowed five occupants unless the fifth was under the age of three. BRV, BCV and BWV, when refurbed finally got a fifth sleeping surface. Before that, you were on your own for bed, bedding, towels, etc. Those resorts sold just fine as well, prior to the refurb.

Five in a studio is a relatively new trend and certainly stresses the studio availability. But as you pointed out, it probably does help sell contracts.

SSR renovation is the way forward DVC should use: 4 in a studio, 5 in a 1BR.
It makes zero sense that in some resorts studios sleep 5 and 1BR only 4 and it aggravates the problem.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Actually, If Disney sees demand go up for one type of room during a particular time of year, they will increase the amount of points required for that room during that time. But they also lower points on another room type, so there is no change to the total points required for the resort. This how they distribute demand.

My point is there is no combination that will balance all of the factors. Season/dates, unit type, resort. You cannot come up with a points chart that completely pushes down demand in key times and redistributes to other dates.

Yes, Disney can redistribute points. But it won't balance demand to the extent needed. Someone who bought a small BWV contract for F&W might consider coming to F&G instead, but even if points go stupid cheap they are unlikely to say "AUgust! It's like Satan's flop sweat! LET'S GO!!!!" There is also no redistribution that can make all the 100-point owners at Poly go wild for a Bungalow.