Those times aren't cheap in general but some are cheaper than others. In part it depends on whether your spring break tends to coincide with the 2 weeks of Easter or not, ours usually doesn't. The best $$$ value will be buying SSR and using at SSR standard or OKW. BWV standard, AKV value, Poly standard and BLT standard are not likely to be available but one might get them rarely with effort and good planning. The same could be said of VGF as well. I think the second best value is BLT long term which should give you everything that I mentioned about owning SSR plus access to the standard view there but at a higher upfront price. In spite of what some would like you to believe, AKV will be significantly more expensive long term and essentially no new buyer will use the value option enough or buy less points enough to make up the difference. The issue with buying at the Poly is that it's a triple or quadruple whammy (pay retail, buy more points, higher chance of financing and higher dues).
Underbuying in terms of points and going for a cheaper long term option will give you a lower short and long term investment, give you more options and give you flexibility to adjust later if you need more points or find you truly have to have X resort. You'll have the extra dollars to add on later if you need to and you won't lose much other than closing costs if you decided to sell completely later (the same an't be said buying retail) and buy at that perfect resort and since you don't currently know what/if that perfect resort will be. If the Poly ends up being the one, you could always add on as you'd need more points anyway and by that time there should be resales.
All 1BR will allow 5 and many will sleep 5 with a queen pullout AND a single pullout in the LR. On property, OKW is the largest villas and the only with 2 queens in the studio. While there are some resorts that technically allow 5 in a studio, none are of sufficient size to make it reasonable for most groups IMO.
But it's unlikely they'll need a 2 BR every trip and unlikely they'll go premier routinely given what the OP has posted. And since their current plans are for every 2 years anyway, they'd have to rent points if they didn't bank/borrow. Plus if they got a good loaded contract, 200 can feel like 250 for a long time, maybe 10 years comparing a fully loaded to a stripped contract as the extreme example. Personally I'd look for a contract in the 170 to 250 range and let the best price determine the choice taking into account the value of any lost points. A fully loaded contract is usually the best value.