which wait list are you on - the daily list - when a day becomes available you should get it (if you are on the automatic confirmation) - or the entire time list - this is harder to get - your entire time must be free before you get anything.
It also depends upon the automatic confirmation or if MS must call you first - if they need to call you the reservations could go to someone else.
okay that say - yes your chances are pretty good - however I would have a bad up reservation at OKW - so I would be sure to have a room - that is if OKW has availability,