Boardwalk Contract

[sethschroeder]

Since we will normally be in 2 bedroom units, I should have more success getting other resorts at the 7-month mark than people who are looking for studios at that point.

BWV is exclusively lock-offs so no 2BR unless a studio + 1br are both available. The other resort is AK Jambo but since you have Kidani and its such a huge resort you wouldn't be shut out really (if you didn't already own there).

You are right though in general for the resorts that have dedicated 2BR you will have a little more luck.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

We are considering purchasing a resale contract. We love Boardwalk and would love to own a contract there but the expiration year concerns us. We feel like we would get a better value out of a longer contract elsewhere. Are we looking at this the wrong way?

I chose between VGF and BC a few years back. Though I adore BC and the location is tops for an Epcot lover, I could not find a way to accept the difference in time on the contracts and went right VGF, my favorite DVC prop. Fast forward, what I didn’t appreciate was how many fewer points are required to book stays at BC (and BWV). I kick myself now for not buying both! Lol

 

[gharter]

I think it goes back to buy where you want to stay. Depending on the time of year that you travel, booking at 7 months can be very challenging.
22 years from now, will you want to go to WDW every year/every other year? Answers vary. A lot depends on your age, kids or lack of and their ages.
Our travel plans changed a lot from when the kids got into Jr High and High School till after they were in college.
We own BWV and love it for the location and everything thats around it.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

We are considering purchasing a resale contract. We love Boardwalk and would love to own a contract there but the expiration year concerns us. We feel like we would get a better value out of a longer contract elsewhere. Are we looking at this the wrong way?

22 years is a long time, but it depends if you plan to keep this and pass on to kids, I would probably consider RIV too and way pros and cons of each. I read somewhere most people keep their DVC 10 years, if that is the case, then you will definitely get your moneys worth from BWV

 

[sethschroeder]

22 years is a long time, but it depends if you plan to keep this and pass on to kids, I would probably consider RIV too and way pros and cons of each. I read somewhere most people keep their DVC 10 years, if that is the case, then you will definitely get your moneys worth from BWV

I don't think the 10 year thing is accurate at all.

I know the estimates were 20% of OKW was sold after 20 years. If most people kept it only 10 years that would mean the resort would basically 100% turn over every 20 years (50%+ every 10 years).

Maybe someone has more information though on all of this.

 

[havoc315]

I don't think the 10 year thing is accurate at all.

I know the estimates were 20% of OKW was sold after 20 years. If most people kept it only 10 years that would mean the resort would basically 100% turn over every 20 years (50%+ every 10 years).

Maybe someone has more information though on all of this.

I'd be weary of estimates of what "most" people do, as well as even average/mean/median.

There are certainly people who pass DVC on to their kids... as well as many who only keep it for 10 years or fewer.

I do strongly suspect most (now I'm doing it) people, at the time they purchase DVC, intend to keep it for longer than 10 years. After 8-10 years, as their kids may start to age out of Disney or move out of the house, I can imagine many people re-think their purchase.

But here is the thing -- If you are purchasing specifically with the plan of only keeping it for 10-15 years, then I definitely would NOT consider BWV. I tend to advise people against considering re-sale values. Too many unknowns into the distant future, and DVC should be seen as pre-paid discounted vacations, not an investment. But if you are specifically buying with the intent of re-selling after 10-15 years, then re-sale value becomes more important. And I suspect resale value will suffer when there are only 7-12 years left on the contract.

 

[crisi]

I don't think the 10 year thing is accurate at all.

I know the estimates were 20% of OKW was sold after 20 years. If most people kept it only 10 years that would mean the resort would basically 100% turn over every 20 years (50%+ every 10 years).

Maybe someone has more information though on all of this.

My guess is that the 10 year thing is pretty accurate. On one end of the spectrum you have the lifers - but at this point they've only owned 30 years or less - so that's a hard stop statistically. At the other end you have the impulse buyers who bought on vacation and sell within a year or two when it isn't a good fit - due to finances or travel plans. In between you have people whose circumstances change - they get divorced, loose their jobs, get ill. They burn out on Disney. They need the cash from selling for college or something else. They bought when they kids were young and now have teenagers who don't have time - and don't want Disney for vacation when you can squeeze it in. There are a few people who bought (when prices were low and climbing) just to churn contracts - they either used the points for big family trips and then sold at a profit, or rented points - and then sold at a profit. Then there are the large external events that put a lot of contracts on the market - recessions in 2000 and 2008.

I'd also expect the original OKW owners to hold for longer than anyone else. They were big enough Disney fans to take a risk on DVC when it was new. Early ownership - while cheap by current standards - was expensive in 1991 dollars - especially given high point minimums. That's the profile of someone who has financial security and a commitment to Disney.

 

[sethschroeder]

Early ownership - while cheap by current standards - was expensive in 1991 dollars - especially given high point minimums. That's the profile of someone who has financial security and a commitment to Disney.

It's not cheap now buying 100/125/150 points. It's actually more now then back then. If I remeber correct buying at OKW would be like buying at $105/point in 2020.

My guess is that the 10 year thing is pretty accurate.

So you are saying annually there are 6.4m points sold through resale (50% turnover after 10 years).

Typical contract average size is roughly 150-200 so we are talking about 32k-42k resale contracts sold annually or 2.6k-3.5k contracts sold monthly.

Sorry I don't buy that at all. Where are all those sales occurring? Plus that's not even accounting for all the resale contracts that then get sold again.

Math is based on 0% RIV and 50% AUL sold out.

 

[Buzzsgramma]

We have owned BWV since 2000 and 2011.....Wouldnt trade it for anything..bought direct back then...The kids and grandkids love that area...we have rarely stayed anywhere else....The location is awesome walking or boating to 2 parks....Love the 11mth window for those SV villas....and the lower points...This year I was 74 and he is 79..... Five years ago the grandson and wife did honeymoon at AKL!!

 

[E2ME2]

We have owned BWV since 2000 and 2011.....Wouldnt trade it for anything..bought direct back then...The kids and grandkids love that area...we have rarely stayed anywhere else....The location is awesome walking or boating to 2 parks....Love the 11mth window for those SV villas....and the lower points...This year I was 74 and he is 79..... Five years ago the grandson and wife did honeymoon at AKL!!

That's awesome! I'm happy for you/
We just got a waitlist granted for SV-Studio at BWV.
Those are the best value for points of any studio (don't even consider AKL-Value,'cuz you're never getting that at 7 Months)!

 

[crisi]

It's not cheap now buying 100/125/150 points. It's actually more now then back then. If I remeber correct buying at OKW would be like buying at $105/point in 2020.



So you are saying annually there are 6.4m points sold through resale (50% turnover after 10 years).

Typical contract average size is roughly 150-200 so we are talking about 32k-42k resale contracts sold annually or 2.6k-3.5k contracts sold monthly.

Sorry I don't buy that at all. Where are all those sales occurring? Plus that's not even accounting for all the resale contracts that then get sold again.

Math is based on 0% RIV and 50% AUL sold out.

50% turnover is not the same as "the average length to hold your contract is ten years." Did your math account for the first twenty years of the system with far fewer points in it? I'm not buying your formula. Or your assumed results - not all contracts are transferred through the resale market.

 

[sethschroeder]

50% turnover is not the same as "the average length to hold your contract is ten years." Did your math account for the first twenty years of the system with far fewer points in it? I'm not buying your formula. Or your assumed results - not all contracts are transferred through the resale market.

Why would it need to? We are talking about future state not what happened in 2005. This is about Riviera resale.

Also to transferring through means other than resale, if it is done within the family or Disney takes it back its direct points it has no bearing on resale restrictions.

So the point stands moving forward regarding the actual context in which this is talked about (contracts flipping to resale restrictions).

As for SSR alone though you have 14m points, 7m per 10 years, 700k per year, 58.3k per month. That is roughly 292-388 contracts per month or 3504-4656 contracts per year. (the biggest resale company per their claim has done 700 for the year with 85 bought back)

I don't see that happening all up and more to the point don't see that occurring through resale channels which put in the resale restrictions.

Also the 20% of OKW was others not my numbers.

 

[crisi]

Why would it need to? We are talking about future state not what happened in 2005. This is about Riviera resale.

Because one way to project the future is to look at the past. You are the one doing the math to prove your point, to prove that point, the math is a hell of a lot more complex than you think it is (I worked as a statistician for a time - no, I'm not doing your math homework, I'm not that invested in it).

 

[sethschroeder]

Because one way to project the future is to look at the past. You are the one doing the math to prove your point, to prove that point, the math is a hell of a lot more complex than you think it is (I worked as a statistician for a time - no, I'm not doing your math homework, I'm not that invested in it).

Sorry you can't say you are not doing the math to act like you proved a point when you provided exactly zero information.

My "math" is simply a factual outline of points needed to sell to hit the 10 year 50% flip. It simply outlines the requirement in 2020 to hit 50% flip in 10 years. So tell me where are these points being sold? Show me where they are being sold?

As outlined the only information that I saw talked about was that OKW flipped 20% in 20 years. I have not come across anyone except for outlining it's a complete guess that it might be more.

Past performance can predict future correct if you have all the information which we don't. Do you have any actual data on historical resale numbers? Do you have any information on resale growth rates? Anything?

Again I am simply outlining the required number of points needing to pass through resale to hit the 50% turn over.

My personal observation on it is that I don't see that turnover occurring across the various resale markets out there when just looking at volumes. I simply added the information on SSR as it's the largest offering, we see lots of people buying/selling it, and it's be on the market for 15 years.