Big News

[mustinjourney]

So if I am on the fence about selling my contract, would this be the best time to sell?

not sure if the best -- but I'd bet it'll sell quickly.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm glad to hear you say that. There looks like there's one good reason to NOT by at Riviera - but that's only if you ever thought you would want to sell it. If you are sure of yourself, the point charts and room configurations COULD point to this being the best DVC resort to buy into in 6 years. (Not anchored down by Bungalows/Cabins, or overly high point charts and limited studios.)

The resale value is a HUGE question mark - but it's also possible that Disney may choose to buoy it with ROFR. That's why I've suggested $60-70 as a bottom point - it'll never get down to a real low number because if Disney could buy it for $10 they'd do it every time.

Edit: I could be completely reading this wrong - maybe people will appreciate the resort enough to keep resale up, but I can't see it even staying higher than SSR. At least at SSR you can get into many other resorts. Riviera you will be "stuck" with the one. Just don't see people paying premiums for that.

I have a feeling that Riviera resale will be part of a DVC II and will be allowed to exchange into and out of future resorts. But that's just pure conjecture.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

and disney is raising hotel rates at faster than inflation rate.

I've never paid rack rates at wdw.

 

[mustinjourney]

If you were thinking of buying at BLT I would just wait. The primary concern should ALWAYS be you are happy with your home resort. Even with access to other resorts you don't always have the opportunity to get into them (unless its SSR). If you don't like BLT you'll regret the buy.

You will still have plenty of inventory past 2042. (Poly, VGF, AKV, CCV, SSR + your home.) I wouldn't rush into a buy right now. Demand may swing high and the prices will too the next few days.

Agree -- I would only rush right now to buy SSR, OKW, VB, HH, or AKV right now. The other resorts, you're likely buying them with the intent to stay at the home resort anyways -- so being precluded from future resorts is not likely a big issue.

 

[mustinjourney]

I've never paid rack rates at wdw.

I hate to tell you this, but if rack rate increases -- you're still paying more with your discount.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I hate to tell you this, but if rack rate increases -- you're still paying more with your discount.

I'm not sure that is true. If MF continue to rise at the same rate as in 2019, they will double in 8 years.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

The Dis Unplugged podcast discusses this issue here:

 

[Drewferin]

The Dis Unplugged podcasts discusses this issue at the 37:09 mark.

What's the cliffsnotes summary for us lazy people?

 

[TCRAIG]

Yes, I'm on wait list for SSR, BLT, and BWV. They said only CCV is avail now for my UY. I guess if I don't get thru before the increase I can still buy SSR or OKW direct as the increase isn't huge. I really wanted BLT. I really love BWV but only have enough points for 4-5 nights and wanted a mk resort to split stay. Love the walk to park aspect. Such a time saver.

I’m on the WL for GF, BLT, OKW and BC - 4 UYs...small points - called my guide (who I absolutely trust) nothing available - so saw a small VGF for my UY on resale and grabbed it...

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

The Dis Unplugged podcast discusses this issue here:

That's a great discussion. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm not sure that is true. If MF continue to rise at the same rate as in 2019, they will double in 8 years.

you're missing my point. You said you never pay rack rates in response to my posting that rack rates continue to go up.

My point was that even if you get a discount on rack rates, you're still going to be paying more each year for your room (compared to the previous year) since the discount is now on a more expensive rate.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm not sure that is true. If MF continue to rise at the same rate as in 2019, they will double in 8 years.

they won't be going up 9% every year. That isn't not going to happen. This year was a result of tax issues, security increases, and wage increases. Those aren't going to happen every year going forward, as these were all things that popped up this year.

 

[TCRAIG]

The guide may have been exaggerating. It just has to be submitted to ROFR by the 19th.

This is what I’ve heard as well - contract has to be presented to DVC for ROFR by 1/19

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I’m on the WL for GF, BLT, OKW and BC - 4 UYs...small points - called my guide (who I absolutely trust) nothing available - so saw a small VGF for my UY on resale and grabbed it...

So, do you currently have multiple memberships (different UYs)? I've started thinking about a different UY as well. Not sure...

 

[TCRAIG]

So, do you currently have multiple memberships (different UYs)? I've started thinking about a different UY as well. Not sure...

7 home resorts - 4 UYs/memberships - 14 contracts - 1132 total points - yup - I’m crazy!

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

you're missing my point. You said you never pay rack rates in response to my posting that rack rates continue to go up.

My point was that even if you get a discount on rack rates, you're still going to be paying more each year for your room (compared to the previous year) since the discount is now on a more expensive rate.

I understand, but I do not think that their rack rates will go up at the same rate as dvc will continue to inflate points (new point chart 2020) and increase MF. Once they've gone to 9%, I'm sure they will find plenty of reasons to go there again, or close to it, as a pretty regular occurrence. Plus, we have been able to get very good discounts on rack rates. Your original comment to me was responding to a post where I said that I would hold off locking in on dvc. I say that because I see that the point of dvc is to lock in costs. For me, it is not clear that dvc does that anymore, and I think you might be better of just playing the market. I think over the next 10 years, there will be an oversupply. That's just my opinion.

 

[Bearval]

I have a feeling that Riviera resale will be part of a DVC II and will be allowed to exchange into and out of future resorts. But that's just pure conjecture.

I highly doubt it, all you have to do is look back and see that they have tried to drive people to buy direct but the past changes they made were not enough to make everyone to buy direct. What the new rule will do is either make almost everyone buy direct or drive down the valve of the resale where they will buy most if not all of them back.

 

[Greg36]

I understand, but I do not think that their rack rates will go up at the same rate as dvc will continue to inflate points (new point chart 2020) and increase MF. Once they've gone to 9%, I'm sure they will find plenty of reasons to go there again, or close to it, as a pretty regular occurrence. Plus, we have been able to get very good discounts on rack rates. Your original comment to me was responding to a post where I said that I would hold off locking in on dvc. I say that because I see that the point of dvc is to lock in costs. For me, it is not clear that dvc does that anymore, and I think you might be better of just playing the market. I think over the next 10 years, there will be an oversupply. That's just my opinion.

Part of me agrees with this thinking as well. It's not hard to 'justify' DVC looking forward over the next couple of years as I am guessing discounts off rack rates will be hard to come by. Maybe even getting an onsite reservation at inflated rack rates might be hard to do. But if one is thinking about DVC as a long term proposition what happens after all the new stuff gets old and the economy scales back... DVC prices are at an all time high so if one locks in the price at that high point that has to be considered over the period of use. Look at the next few months in terms of Disney rack rate discounts... Free dining in July, 25-30% off room rates, price line deals worth 40-50% off some places... I don't think Disney will keep raising the MF's at the same rates they did this year but I also have a hard time believing they can continue to raise rack rates at the same rates they have been doing. Over the next few years, sure, but long term I don't believe the market can tolerate it... Who knows though... People obviously love the Disney product.

 

[sky2823]

DVC was leaving money on the table.

This is a correction. There might have been better approaches, but it’s how they chose to correct.

Most likely an “over correction” that will turn some people off

They will adjust benefits and access in the future to find an equilibrium which seems like their lever of choice as opposed to price.

Right now it’s more an emotional “loss aversion” impact on DVCrs of who are either “grandfathered in” or not the majority of people purchasing Riviera anyway as opposed to direct loss.

Short-term CCV sells better for Disney, resale brokers make a ton in the next month, people reselling their contract get better prices etc....

Long-term DVC becomes more of a luxury item than a discount coupon bookl. Resale market survives but gets less of the pie.

Legacy DVCrs will still have a coupon book and have decent exit liquidity and new purchasers will be buying into a luxury product (if sold honestly) and have managed expectations.

As a consumer I want more, but from a corporate decision perspective, some sea change was inevitable.

 

[Dean]

you're missing my point. You said you never pay rack rates in response to my posting that rack rates continue to go up.

My point was that even if you get a discount on rack rates, you're still going to be paying more each year for your room (compared to the previous year) since the discount is now on a more expensive rate.

That's true but it's also true that dues may increase more than rack rates. Owning ties you in and commits you to any increases going forward, cash gives you options (including skipping for other locations) but may be more expensive for the same trips. Discounts may not be consistent but I think one can assume an average of 20% for any time where discount are currently applicable.