Best Guess.....

[bom_noite]

What % of SSR is sold?

Based on history at what % threshold would DVD announce the next site?

When do you suppose SSR will reach that threshold?

 

[RobDoc]

Based on history, there is probably no established threshhold.

From 1991 until 1995, OKW was the only resort being sold. As VB, HH and BWV were added in 1995 and 1996, there were four resorts being sold at the same time. VWL began sales after OKW and BWV sales had stopped, but HH and VB were still actively being sold. BCV was sold after all others were sold out and SSR didn't begin pre-sales until after BCV was sold out.

I'd guess that SSR is less than 50% sold at this time, but I have no information to back that up and will gladly accept other guesses. I'd expect SSR to sell out (barring any international disruptions to the travel industry) in another 3-4 years unless DVC announces and begins sales on another onsite resort in the meantime. If an off-site resort is announced, I'd expect the same timetable for SSR, but another onsite would dilute the sales options for SSR during the time both are being sold.

.02

 

[JimC]

I am going to go out on a limb here and say just over 50% as of January. I remember the update meeting where they said they had 22,600 members at SSR.

I think OKW has about 26,700 members if I recollect the POS accurately. So if OKW has 531 villas and 26,700 members and SSR has 22,600 members and will have a total of 828 villas then they could be 55% sold. Lots of assumptions but it does bring us pretty close to Doc's intuitive guess.

Other views welcomed

 

[bom_noite]

I agree that opening a new WDW resort would not make any sense.

But, am I wrong to say that they might still consider moving forward with a Contemporary resort but just price it much, much higher. I would think that would give the potential buyer two options at two different price ranges.

 

[1000th happy haunt]

Actually a number of us (me included) have been told by our guides to expect some sort of announcement in the fall. Most of us are guessing it will be an announcement of the next DVC resort.

 

[dvc_john]

Based on other info available (including the fact that Congress Park sold out in about a year, The Springs starting pre-sales 6 to 8 months before it opened, and, according to another thread I started, at least some portion of of the first 11 buildings built have sold), my best guess is:
75% of the existing 12 buildings sold, or
50% of the total 18 building resort

Also note, that if these estimates are anywhere near accurate, it would indicate that, despite all the posts about poor sales, sales are actually outpacing sales at OKW, BWV, VB, and HH compared to when they opened. Sales are even on pace with BCV, considering BCV sold out in a year, and Congress Park sold out in a year. (Yes, BCV has more rooms than Congress Park, and has a higher point schedule. But that is offset by the fact that Congress Park has 8 GV's while BCV has none, and 56 of BCV's rooms are dedicated studios or 1-br's, while Congress Park has none. The total points for BCV and Congress Park are within about 3% of each other.)

 

[dvc-NE]

Doc, JimC and dvc John, all good rationale. I would have thought maybe higher, but whenever I hear slow sales I tend to believe it.

 

[Smile]

My guide hinted that this might be the next resort. No mention when that would be.

Cheers!