"The risk of pandemic influenza is serious. With the H5N1 virus now firmly entrenched in large parts of Asia, the risk that more human cases will occur will persist. Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain. The recent spread of the virus to poultry and wild birds in new areas further broadens opportunities for human cases to occur. While neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased"
From:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/#areall
"Avian flu: potential to ignite a severe pandemic
Serious changes begin in December 2003
Endemic in bird population
Spread to 7 Asian countries within 30 days
Ducks excreting H5N1 and migratory birds now harbour pathogenic form
Increasing hosts
Tigers, cats and leopards
Increased fatalities
Primary viral pneumonia targeting the young
Transmission to humans increasing 150 people
But almost 20 cases with high probability of human to human transmission"
http://aon.x-serve.co.uk/seminar/060127/pdf/md.pdf
http://pandemicflu.gov/planguide/checklist.html
updated Jan 2006
The best way to stop the spread once started will be keeping people at home temporarily in local areas. So, some food, water, books and cards can't hurt and can only help.
As bad as it could possibly be in the US, it could only be worse in poorer countries with millions living in close quarters.
This really seems to be a looming concern. Even mentioned below in an article on Airline profits.
Airline group sees $7.2 billion sector profit in 2007
Wednesday March 22, 3:35 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The International Air Transport Association said on Wednesday it expects the industry to post a larger profit in 2007 than it previously anticipated as demand grows and carriers benefit from leaner, more efficient operations.
The global airlines body raised its 2007 forecast for global industry profit -- the first in six years -- to $7.2 billion from $6.2 billion previously, Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani said at an industry event in New York.
IATA cut its forecast of the global industry's losses in 2006 by half to $2.2 billion. U.S. carriers are expected to lose $5.4 billion in 2006, half the losses they posted in 2005. The projections assume crude oil to cost $52 a barrel in 2007 and $57 a barrel in 2006.
But Bisignani warned against being too optimistic, as the returns would still be small compared with the size of the industry, and adverse events -- such as a bird flu pandemic among humans and another surge in fuel prices -- could again throw airlines off track.
"There are some wild cards beyond our control -- avian flu and security among them," Bisignani said. "If we are looking for a common villain, it is fuel."
