Avian Flu: Not to scare but to prepare mode

[tinksgirl]

My mil works in a hospital,a few months back she pulled my DH and i out of earshot from the kids and told us how doctors are stock pilling for thier familys and how important it is for us to do the same.We will be prepared to go into quarentine in our home ,we have been stocking for a family of 5 for the last 2 months,we will have enough for 1 year,yes its overboard but stocking for 2 weeks isnt gonna do a thing! we have purchased a hand crank radio,candles big and strong enough to cook on,medications, food,water,face masks,plastic,wood,on and on .the cdc website has good info and the info IS out there, people turn a blind eye to it because it's scary,i'm into protecting my family the best i can.I rotate the food and if i never have to use the emergency supplys thats just fine by me!

 

[DawnCt1]

There are so many things have changed between 2006 and 1918. In 1918, with only a small amount of International travel, the flu wasn’t as prevalent as it is today. Today, a new ‘flu’ emerges every year, and with every flu you get, or every flu shot, you gain more and more resistance to the flu. In 1918, the whole world was reeling after a long world war, and International famines. Today, the United States is prosperous. The probability is that with new medicines, technology, and relative health, an avian flu pandemic would have little defense then a regular flu year. Thousands would die, which happen every year. There are too many differences to compare the 1918 flu to today.

DH would definately disagree with you. We have a more mobile society which lends itself to spreading disease faster. Of those individuals who have been infected with Avian flu, 50% have died. These are young and healthy, at least initially individuals who were being cared for in tertiary care centers and receiving the benefits of modern medicine.

 

[DawnCt1]

And potentially could cause them to lose their license to practice medicine . . .

That would be the least of it. I think that the public would hold it against the medical profession as a group.

 

[DawnCt1]

My mil works in a hospital,a few months back she pulled my DH and i out of earshot from the kids and told us how doctors are stock pilling for thier familys and how important it is for us to do the same.We will be prepared to go into quarentine in our home ,we have been stocking for a family of 5 for the last 2 months,we will have enough for 1 year,yes its overboard but stocking for 2 weeks isnt gonna do a thing! we have purchased a hand crank radio,candles big and strong enough to cook on,medications, food,water,face masks,plastic,wood,on and on .the cdc website has good info and the info IS out there, people turn a blind eye to it because it's scary,i'm into protecting my family the best i can.I rotate the food and if i never have to use the emergency supplys thats just fine by me!

DH is in Iraq, so I can't ask him but I think I recall him saying that if it hits, it will hit a community or area over a 6 to 8 week period before things get up and running again.

 

[Mskanga]

This is what I saw yesterday in Good Morning America, the avian flu researcher ( a doctor himself and I forgot his name ) said he was getting himself ready with 3 months worth of supplies. This is not the first time I heard that from a doctor so I think it's coming to time that people really need to start paying attention to this.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/AvianFlu/story?id=1722484&page=1

 

[nliedel]

Wait a second. I thought the flu wasn't affecting humans right now!! Did it change?!?!?

There has been no human to human transmission of this virus but there has been animal to human. Since most of us don't sleep with chickens in the US we are unlikely to get it even when it comes to the US (with migratory birds probably later this year).

 

[Mskanga]

http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/

March 14, 2006
Robert Webster: 50/50 chance we will see H2H mutation
There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
Webster and his team of sceintists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the "Flu Hunter."
[...] "I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," Webster said.
He has even stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home to prepare for an outbreak.
"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."
From ABC News <http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=1724801&page=1>, with thanks to HyeYoon. Here is a link to Dr. Webster <http://www.stjude.org/faculty/0,2512,407_2030_3957,00.html>'s home page.

Why is bird flu targeting the young?
Here is a good recent article <http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1142031016596&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home>. One theory:
"On average, you'll get influenza once every five or 10 years, so kids are less likely to have antibodies from prior exposure," he said. "Adults will have had experiences with different influenza viruses."It still doesn't explain the disproportionate number of people in their 20s and 30s who have succumbed to the disease. One theory is that some people have immunity to the N1 antigen of the bird flu virus developed from the H1N1 Spanish flu. That virus was still circulating in a milder form until 1957 and also re-emerged as a milder strain in 1977.

This may answer some of your questions.

 

[nliedel]

The way H5N1 attacks the system makes it more of a threat to those with healthy immune systems, rather than weakend ones. Since this is a new strain of flu no one has antibodies to it, which is why it is so dangerous.

 

[mickeysgal]

Its all going to come down to how your individual community will respond. In my opinion, there should be immediate quarantine/shut down of an entire town - enforced by law enforcement - if there is an outbreak. The question I have is what is considered an outbreak? Does the flu have to be in your community first? For how long? Or should communities be proactive and shut down if its reported in the next town, the region? Unfortunately, I think that businesses will fight this, people will fight it as they won't be prepared for a quarantine. I know I haven't heard any word from our community about their state of preparedness.

 

[luvwinnie]

http://www.med-owl.com/health/H5N1-Virus-Therapy.html

 

[nliedel]

PLease take anything written on the internet, especially about home remadies, with a grain of salt.

 

[gate_pourri]

Of those individuals who have been infected with Avian flu, 50% have died. These are young and healthy, at least initially individuals who were being cared for in tertiary care centers and receiving the benefits of modern medicine.

The probability is that if H5N1 were to hit the United States (which I doubt will happen this year because, well... flu season is almost over people) it will be much different then how it is effecting Asia. I have spent much time traveling and living in many countries in Asia, and the population is in much poorer health then in America. In China and Vietnam, people live on rice gruel, with very little meat and veggies. They have very different and more comprised immune systems, and they are less likely to get medical care. No one has died in Europe from bird flu, and it unlikely that anyone will in the coming months. Remember SARS? SARS was supposed to be the 'big' killer disease, which was human-to-human transmitted. SARS killed hundreds of people in Asia, and 20 in the West. Just as quickly are SARS came, SARS left.

I just don't believe in creating mass panic... The news in America is creating this problem with predictions that it will mutate in 6 months, millions will die, etc. etc, so that they can sell more newspapers. I am currently traveling through western Europe (UK and France) where there is H5N1, and millions of birds have been 'killed', and no one is worried one bit. People are still eating half-cooked duck liver, chicken, raw eggs, etc. People are not stock piling medication or food. They are living their lives, which I think more Americans need to do. It can't hurt to have a couple of weeks of food and water in your house, but that is because in-this-day-in-age there are many different threats (weather/earthquakes/terror/disease), but there is no need to change your entire lifestyle.

Going down to eat my seared foie gras for dinner.

 

[DawnCt1]

They have very different and more comprised immune systems, and they are less likely to get medical care.

I

Those individuals who have died were relatively healthy and treated in high level medical centers. They died anyway. No one is suggesting panic but preparation. I don't see any Americans "not getting on with their lives". The reality is, we are over due for a pandemic and if the CDC, local hospitals and care centers are not prepared for this eventuality, the consequences will be even more devastating.

 

[luvwinnie]

The probability is that if H5N1 were to hit the United States (which I doubt will happen this year because, well... flu season is almost over people) it will be much different then how it is effecting Asia. I have spent much time traveling and living in many countries in Asia, and the population is in much poorer health then in America. In China and Vietnam, people live on rice gruel, with very little meat and veggies. They have very different and more comprised immune systems, and they are less likely to get medical care. No one has died in Europe from bird flu, and it unlikely that anyone will in the coming months. Remember SARS? SARS was supposed to be the 'big' killer disease, which was human-to-human transmitted. SARS killed hundreds of people in Asia, and 20 in the West. Just as quickly are SARS came, SARS left.

I just don't believe in creating mass panic... The news in America is creating this problem with predictions that it will mutate in 6 months, millions will die, etc. etc, so that they can sell more newspapers. I am currently traveling through western Europe (UK and France) where there is H5N1, and millions of birds have been 'killed', and no one is worried one bit. People are still eating half-cooked duck liver, chicken, raw eggs, etc. People are not stock piling medication or food. They are living their lives, which I think more Americans need to do. It can't hurt to have a couple of weeks of food and water in your house, but that is because in-this-day-in-age there are many different threats (weather/earthquakes/terror/disease), but there is no need to change your entire lifestyle.

Going down to eat my seared foie gras for dinner.

Just want to point out that Avian flu doesn't have a "season"...it's completely different.

 

[luvwinnie]

Apparently it has killed a dog now too.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...52900_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU.xml&archived=False

 

[Mskanga]

I'd rather get prepared for something that may not happen than to not get prepared for something that may happen.
My life is still going on as usual.

 

[LisaR]

Thanks to everyone on this thread for the useful information and links. I have found them all very interesting.

Many of you have talked about having generators, propane, candles, etc. While I have been preparing with extra supplies (both for the upcoming hurricane season and anything else that might happen), I haven't given much thought to losing power during a bird flu epidemic. Why do you feel we will be without gas, electricity, etc? Plus, how are you going to refill your BBQ propane tanks or gas up your generator if everything is shut down?

 

[Wish I lived in Fl]

Remember SARS? SARS was supposed to be the 'big' killer disease, which was human-to-human transmitted. SARS killed hundreds of people in Asia, and 20 in the West. Just as quickly are SARS came, SARS left.

But SARS didn't go away on its own.
The source was found, civet cats.
Travelers from areas where SARS was occurring were monitored for fever by infra red sensors at airports .
Travel was temporarily suspended to Toronto.
The costs to defend against SARS and tourism losses were in the hundreds of millions for Toronto alone.

 

[mickeysgal]

I haven't given much thought to losing power during a bird flu epidemic. Why do you feel we will be without gas, electricity, etc? Plus, how are you going to refill your BBQ propane tanks or gas up your generator if everything is shut down?

There are two reasons that I have read. If they quarantine everything, town to town, region to region, whatever, that will mean a total shut down - including people going to work. Also, if this flu is as epidemic and deadly as it is feared, no one will want to leave their homes and therefore no one will be around to run businesses. This includes getting medical personnel to show up at hospitals. Economic/financial chaos isn't out the realm of possibility under the worst case scenarios.

I just hope and pray that we don't come close to this.

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

I have been asking myself about the generator - would like to have one anyway, but in this case I keep wondering that - if it gets so bad we need one for some time, then how realistic to think you could have a supply of gas to really get you through? It kind of falls under something you should have anyway just to be prepared for power outages - just since '91 we have experienced 2 where we were without power for five days.