Avian Flu: Not to scare but to prepare mode

[Tantor]

I've heard that if it does turn it a pandemic, it will take at least 6 months to go its way once it hits your area. They went on to say schools will be closed and most everyone will not be able to go to work, which could cause things to shut down such as electric, gas, etc.

According to DH this is why you will need some sort alternate for electricity. We saw what happened in 2003 when the blackout occured for 24 + hours.

 

[nliedel]

According to DH this is why you will need some sort alternate for electricity. We saw what happened in 2003 when the blackout occured for 24 + hours.

Or be able to do without it. Fine if you have a heat source but if you don't and live in the north it could be an issue.

 

[Trish Bessette]

Or be able to do without it. Fine if you have a heat source but if you don't and live in the north it could be an issue.

Exactly...and I live in the North. That is the last part that we need to resolve..getting a woodstove or something like that.

 

[DawnCt1]

Wouldn't we all have to get out and go to work even if there ws a break-out? I guess I'm thinking that I couldn't afford for my dh and I to stay home from work for six weeks or so even if it did protect us from exposure to this virus.

The governors of each state would follow the recommendations of the CDC and that includes the option of closing non essential businesses, schools, colleges, etc. to limit the spread. The big concern of course is staffing the hospitals. Health care workers are fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, etc too but they will have to put those concerns aside and show up for work. DH lectured on this last winter to physicians and some nurses and ended his talk essentially saying that if healthcare workers didn't show up, it would be unforgivable.

 

[Wish I lived in Fl]

My opinion... there is nothing I can do to stop this from happening.

We are used to making preparations for hurricanes, so for us this would be equivalent. After going through a few hurricanes, I can tell you one is never as prepared as we think we are. Believe it or not, there are people that make zero preparations for hurricanes. We've never felt the need to buy a gun, but after living through Wilma (nothing compared to Katrina) I saw what people are capable of doing in a desperate situation.

Desperate people are why i think it would be safest to find a bunch of likeminded freinds,family,neighbors to team up with. Have some supplies to donate to public agencies if possible.

Some have guessed generators might be a target of jealousy and theft so we are trying to figure out how to do without electricity. Plus we would lose it in a Hurricane. We wouldn't be able to heat the house w/o so would drain water pipes. Then we would just have to bundle up. Dh said how could we survive w/o heating the house. I pointed out how well he manages winter camping in the White mountains of New Hampshire.

In the worst flu pandemic previous to this, people did stay home from school,work. Didn't the Presisent request military assistance for enforcing area quarantines if necessary also?

Don't figure cheap paper masks would be fail safe but hope they might offer some protection.
Added: Found out the cheap paper masks at Home Depot are labeled "N95". Only $2.00 a piece in bulk.

Since the 1918 flu and this one are deadly for inducing an overwhelming immune response called a cytokine storm, doesn't it seem that it might be possible to find a drug to modulate the immune response? Aspirin decreases prostaglandins, antihistamines affect histamines, singular reduces leukotrienes for asthma. The drug company geniuses have hopefully had a year or two to get started on research.




Added: No chickens, no eggs, add some dehydrated eggs to the larder?

Could a local agency,Red Cross branch, Board of Health be authorized to seize Food stores and deliver groceries to prevent looting, panic and keep people in their homes rather than foraging? Stores to be paid back of course. Probably the stores would have inventory records for reimbursement assuming things were normal somewhere!

 

[nliedel]

This flu would probably be a bit more survivable than the 1812 outbreak because of steroids. Those are a huge leap forward.

 

[minkydog]

This flu would probably be a bit more survivable than the 1812 outbreak because of steroids. Those are a huge leap forward.

Not to mention antibiotics to combat pneumonia(the real killer), ventilators, anti-virals,and inhalers. How 'bout expert nursing care? We are certainly aware of the impending avian flu invasion, but we need to remember that so far avian flu is only an epidemic in the bird population. It has infected a few cats, but this is largely a bird disease. We don't need to run around like chickens with our heds cut off.

Does anyone remember the bad flu season we had 2yrs ago?? The one that started in November? And killed about 150 kids nationwide? And 1000s of adults? Our hospitals were at 200% capacity,partly due to the fact that their staff was down by 25-30% due to the flu and partly due to physician's offices being overwhelmed(and of course, all those people who go to the ED at the first sign of a cough ) The EDs were overwhelmed for about 10weeks. However, I don't remember losing power, water, mail service, groceries or internet. Eventually, the flu died off and everyone went back to work. It was a bad flu season but it didn't wreck the U.S. economy.

I doubt that the flu invasion will be on the scale of a nuclear holocaust. Yes, it will be inconvenient and some people will die(most likely those with underlying chronic illnesses, the old and the very young--just like every flu season.) There is no cure for flu virus, but there are many, many resources for fighting the complications that simply were not available in 1918.

 

[LisaR]

We keep a good supply around because of hurricanes but we probably only have 3 weeks worth of food. Does anyone know of a website that suggests how/what to stockpile for 3 months? I am concerned living in FL that things like flour would get buggy if they sit too long.

 

[nliedel]

Not to mention antibiotics to combat pneumonia(the real killer), ventilators, anti-virals,and inhalers. How 'bout expert nursing care? We are certainly aware of the impending avian flu invasion, but we need to remember that so far avian flu is only an epidemic in the bird population. It has infected a few cats, but this is largely a bird disease. We don't need to run around like chickens with our heds cut off.

.

Actually the pneumonia that comes with this type of flu is not bacterial and therefore not affected by antibiotics. There is strong eveidence that this flu has jumped species (I think it was reported this weekend) but not to the human population thus far.

 

[minkydog]

Actually the pneumonia that comes with this type of flu is not bacterial and therefore not affected by antibiotics.

Thank you. I stand corrected.

 

[froglady]

DD is currently in Cameroon, and the news just announced (in this morning's paper) that Avian Flu has been found there. Am I worried? Of course, but the only cases are near the Nigerian border, where there is also fighting going on. (She is in the capital, and has NO intention of going anywhere near the border!) So, I'm concerned about the flu, but MORE concerned about the fighting, with opposing groups setting fire to churches, schools, stores, etc.

That said, I'll warn her to take any flu symptoms very seriously, and to seek medical attention ASAP.

The major concern about this flu is that it might be similar to the 1918 epidemic, which took a greater toll on the young (15-30) and healthy rather than the elderly or very young. My neighbor (who passed several years ago) lived through it and said it was horrible. You would see someone apparently healthy at church on Sunday, and they would be dead by Tuesday morning.

 

[Trish Bessette]

The major concern about this flu is that it might be similar to the 1918 epidemic, which took a greater toll on the young (15-30) and healthy rather than the elderly or very young. My neighbor (who passed several years ago) lived through it and said it was horrible. You would see someone apparently healthy at church on Sunday, and they would be dead by Tuesday morning.

This is exactly what I've read. The strain will most likely attack the young and healthy.

My Dad's father was the only child of 5 who survived the 1918 epidemic. My Dad told me about how his dad remembers a farmer who would go around with his wagon and pick up the dead bodies as no one wanted to leave their houses.

 

[LisaR]

This is exactly what I've read. The strain will most likely attack the young and healthy.

This is also what I heard but I don't understand why. Why would it NOT be most deadly to the young, immune compromised or elderly? Why do they seem to think there is a bigger risk to the healthy?

 

[luvwinnie]

This is also what I heard but I don't understand why. Why would it NOT be most deadly to the young, immune compromised or elderly? Why do they seem to think there is a bigger risk to the healthy?

From what I read about the 1918 flu, they think older people may have had some immunity...I think because it was related to a flu that had occurred some years earlier.

 

[ckay87]

This is also what I heard but I don't understand why. Why would it NOT be most deadly to the young, immune compromised or elderly? Why do they seem to think there is a bigger risk to the healthy?

I specifically remember hearing that from the guy on Oprah, though.

From: http://www.oprah.com/tows/slide/200601/20060124/slide_20060124_284_104.jhtml


Who is most at risk of bird flu?

Dr. Osterholm says that a typical flu season kills 36,000 people every year, and the very young and very old are most at risk "because they are the ones that are most vulnerable to infectious diseases."

Not exactly the case with bird flu, he says. If the bird flu is anything like the 1918 pandemic, the highest death rates could actually be "those between the ages of 20 and 40."

"In the months of September and October of 1918, 7 percent of the residents of Boston between 20 and 40 years of age died," he says.

How could individuals in the prime of their health be so susceptible to a disease? "It turns out that this virus multiplies very quickly in your body," Dr. Osterholm explains. "The people who have the healthiest immune systems are the ones that succumb to the virus because the immune system goes into overdrive."

The demographic least likely to survive the 1918 pandemic were pregnant women, Dr. Osterholm says. "Fifty-five percent of all pregnant women died from having this flu virus. There is no more precarious time in a healthy person's immune system, than [when they are] pregnant. Part of you says, 'Get rid of that [baby]. It's not all me.' And part of you says, 'This is the most precious cargo I'll ever carry. Protect it.'" This confusion makes bird flu extremely dangerous for pregnant women.


My non-medical addition: Your immune system in "overdrive" as he says is your fever, your swollen glands etc. When you get those things, that's your immune system kicking in. I will often get a very high fever but no other symptoms. That's my immune system doing its job. But high fevers are not a good thing either, obviously.

 

[KelNottAt]

I'll admit it. I'm nervous about this flu.

The worse-case-scenario estimates and projections I've seen are quite frightening: 90 million Americans will be sick. Of those, there could be 1,903,000 deaths. That would be considered a "severe outbreak" like the 1918 Spanish flu.

In a "moderate outbreak" (like the '58 Asian flu or '68 Hong Kong flu) there could still be 90 million sick with 209,000 deaths.

Source: page 18 of this HHS document.http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/pdf/HHSPandemicInfluenzaPlan.pdf

Even if any actual outbreak was 1% percent as bad as these estimates, we're looking at 900,000 ill, and 2,000 - 19,000 deaths.

To me, the most worrisome part of it all seems to be that the young and healthy are most at risk. IIRC, their strong immune systems try to kill the germs, but end up harming the patient's own body in the process.

As a mother of teens, that's what gets me.

 

[Kay7979]

I have listened to only a couple of interviews on TV, but the thoughts seemed to be that it is not likely that Bird Flu would ever mutate into a strain that would affect humans. Not that it couldn't, but it isn't a given that it ever will. If it did, it might take years. In the meantime cures may be perfected. Maybe they were just trying to keep people from being overly alarmed. I can't even imagine a scenario where people would be quarantined and whole communities would be isolated. How could everyone stay home and businesses cease operating? What about the post office? Banks? If people didn't go to work they couldn't pay any of their bills and truly there would be absolute chaos in that scenario.

 

[froglady]

From what I read about the 1918 flu, they think older people may have had some immunity...I think because it was related to a flu that had occurred some years earlier.

I had also heard/read this. This would be true today, as the majority of people who have flu shots fall within the old, very young, and those with health problems. Today's flu shots don't grant immunity, but may lessen the impact. (No one knows for sure) Also, people in those groups don't HAVE to be out and about, as many of them are too old, too young, or too sick to be in the workforce, so they were/would be more able to isolate themselves.

Workers, students, and the military are those who would have more long term exposure to possible carriers. The 1918 epidemic took a huge toll on the military, as it would spread rapidly through the barracks. the same was true of dormitories, orphanages, and hospitals. Basically, anyplace where there were large numbers of people spending hours in close proximity.

This is why the issue of an interruption in essential services was raised. The people who provide those services and keep our society functioning might be the ones who are hit the hardest.

 

[ckay87]

I can't even imagine a scenario where people would be quarantined and whole communities would be isolated.

Yes, we've been very lucky. I'll bet there is another generation who could imagine that scenerio very very well. And you're right...it wouldn't be pretty. And that's another reason to be prepared with food and supplies. It's not just that you don't want to leave your house. You can't rely on other services being available.

 

[VSL]

I don't know of anyone who is even thinking of this in the UK. And we are much closer - it's already hit France I believe.

Maybe we are wrong, and will be wiped out, but I believe that the major plan here is that if/when it reaches the UK, farms will be quarantined (there's already more vigorous procedures happening WRT contact with poultry) and the poultry will be culled.

I guess I'm just not all that worried yet because I never have direct contact with birds. Maybe I (and the rest of the UK!) are being complacent, but Must be the old British attitude of being untouchable

ETA:
In fact...

In October 2005 the UK recorded its first case of H5N1 in a quarantined parrot from South America, but because the bird was held in isolation the UK's disease-free status remains unchanged.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3422839.stm