Avatar to open Christmas next year?

[lockedoutlogic]

I am not sure who you are referring to, but the people I listen to are very knowledgable about the economics, probably much more then you are. They are not making predictions or pulling things out the air, they are providing information about what the current plans are. Yes, those plans may change, but the information is still useful.

I am not sure who you are referring to, but the people I listen to are very knowledgable about the economics, probably much more then you are. They are not making predictions or pulling things out the air, they are providing information about what the current plans are. Yes, those plans may change, but the information is still useful.

I am not sure who you are referring to, but the people I listen to are very knowledgable about the economics, probably much more then you are. They are not making predictions or pulling things out the air, they are providing information about what the current plans are. Yes, those plans may change, but the information is still useful.

I'm not referring to anyone specifically...certainly not you...

I find there is this general ethos from the "insiders" that they feel the Disney leadership has this desire to still "create" in park construction. I just don't think that's modern thought at the current times.

So While there is valid arguments about putting more money into parks to make More...

The history of wdw in particular shows you can do almost nothing and make
Increasing profits with no overhead investment.

I think there's a dijoint and I think the "insiders" mostly convince themselves it's not so because they live it...or think they live it.

All One big creative, happy non profit company.

The truth is out there somewhere and this is just my take.

Have to say though...please don't take this stuff personally. My opinions are well known and I have a case...but I understand the opposing views.

Too much "offense" going on here the last few days. Tone really doesn't matter.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If people are using this information to plan trips or make investing decisions (which they shouldn't be), then yes caution is appropriate. But if people just want to have some fun and discuss rumors of Disney's future plans, then I see no problem with discussing information provided by people who have proven in the past that they have access to inside information.

I think we both have a point then, eh?

For me...too many things here have been presented lately as a matter of fact without a proper historical context/wisdom
Approach.

 

[Budshark]

The only thing I will say is this:

It is not as simplistic of a process as described.
Losses in ESPN or other units can result in 2 different reactions depending on the plans/thought processes/drivers that govern the leadership of the company.

1) A pull back on capital spending to make the bottom line hold the returns.
2) A doubling down on investments in other areas to grow that business to offset the losses.

So while ESPN losses are not "encouraging", it is not so simple to say "They lost $2 Billion over there, so they will cut $2 Billion from over here". They may actually spend even more if they look at the trends and feel like they have a window here to create the ability to offset the loss in the future.

 

[DanBoris]

I'm not referring to anyone specifically...certainly not you...

I find there is this general ethos from the "insiders" that they feel the Disney leadership has this desire to still "create" in park construction. I just don't think that's modern thought at the current times.

So While there is valid arguments about putting more money into parks to make More...

The history of wdw in particular shows you can do almost nothing and make
Increasing profits with no overhead investment.

I think there's a dijoint and I think the "insiders" mostly convince themselves it's not so because they live it...or think they live it.

All One big creative, happy non profit company.

The truth is out there somewhere and this is just my take.

Have to say though...please don't take this stuff personally. My opinions are well known and I have a case...but I understand the opposing views.

Too much "offense" going on here the last few days. Tone really doesn't matter.

I really don't know who you have been listening to, but the people I follow are much more realistic then this. I have never seen a source I trust say anything remotely like "All One big creative, happy non profit company." I mean no offense either, but anytime you post something trying to discredit the people over at WDWMagic, I feel obligated to post the opposing view point for the benefit of anyone new reading the thread.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I mean no offense either, but anytime you post something trying to discredit the people over at WDWMagic, I feel obligated to post the opposing view point for the benefit of anyone new reading the thread.

And that...is a textbook difference of opinion and that's "ok"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The only thing I will say is this:

It is not as simplistic of a process as described.
Losses in ESPN or other units can result in 2 different reactions depending on the plans/thought processes/drivers that govern the leadership of the company.

1) A pull back on capital spending to make the bottom line hold the returns.
2) A doubling down on investments in other areas to grow that business to offset the losses.

So while ESPN losses are not "encouraging", it is not so simple to say "They lost $2 Billion over there, so they will cut $2 Billion from over here". They may actually spend even more if they look at the trends and feel like they have a window here to create the ability to offset the loss in the future.

Of course not...

I take the tact you're describing to overcompensate for what seems to be a wide trend on boards such as these of people dismissing that it could cause a problem.

As if building rides equals making money and because you slap "DVC" or "Capitol cities" to one unit - it somehow means that the numero uno cares and doesn't just see a big summary number.

Especially when he's looking to get out.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

Of course not...

I take the tact you're describing to overcompensate for what seems to be a wide trend on boards such as these of people dismissing that it could cause a problem.

As if building rides equals making money and because you slap "DVC" or "Capitol cities" to one unit - it somehow means that the numero uno cares and doesn't just see a big summary number.

Especially when he's looking to get out.

It's not only ESPN that has been a drag on Disney this year. The film division produced two of the most expensive flops in the company's history...Tomorrowland and a Pixar film(gasp) The Good Dinosaur. The combined losses are around 400 million. Any profits from Inside Out were wiped out by this and Star Wsrs will have to have condiderable legs to help compensate for them as well.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I hadn't realized the good dinosaur had flopped so badly.

Pixar isn't as untouchable as it used to be. I think the novelty has worn off a bit and that makes its future less certain than it once seemed.

 

[sachilles]

I hadn't realized the good dinosaur had flopped so badly.

Pixar isn't as untouchable as it used to be. I think the novelty has worn off a bit and that makes its future less certain than it once seemed.

On Sunday, we went to the theater to watch the good dinosaur. We were late. I decided to grab snacks while my wife and son found us seats. I enter the theater to find the previews running, and they are the only 2 in the theater. Everybody and their mother was their for that other disney movie, ooooof.
It was entertaining, but not anything special.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

On Sunday, we went to the theater to watch the good dinosaur. We were late. I decided to grab snacks while my wife and son found us seats. I enter the theater to find the previews running, and they are the only 2 in the theater. Everybody and their mother was their for that other disney movie, ooooof.
It was entertaining, but not anything special.

They have taken in less than 200 mil worldwide and needed at least 400 to break even.

The first true Pixar flop.

 

[Eoghann]

They have taken in less than 200 mil worldwide and needed at least 400 to break even.

The first true Pixar flop.

Odds are they will break even but maybe not much more than that.

I think they knew they were in trouble with this one, it got re-scheduled because the story wasn't working and then they released it in a year where there had already been a successful Pixar movie. Plus it seemed like there was far less promotion for it than Inside Out got. Basically they had a stinker of a movie but so much sunk costs they had to release.

 

[Spacedog1975]

I am a huge Pixar/Disney fan, but having seen "The Good Nap", it clearly needed one of two things:

1) To be cancelled (they've done it before)
or
2) Another year or more of development

The story was not especially engaging, nor were the characters.
The visuals were breathtaking. From an R&D standpoint, I suppose this is money well spent.

The short before the film had far more character and story development.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

I hadn't realized the good dinosaur had flopped so badly.

Pixar isn't as untouchable as it used to be. I think the novelty has worn off a bit and that makes its future less certain than it once seemed.

Yeah...over 200 million dollar budget and it stands at 96 million domestic after 4 weeks of release. Only 93 million overseas at this point. Maybe it will take off in China and Japan later but still...a huge financial loss.

It's rumored to have a P&A budget in excess of $150 million. At best, Disney gets 50% of these grosses.

Total Worldwide gross is under $200 million. This film would have to gross $700 million to break even. It's every bit as disasterous as Tomorrowland. Two historically expensive flops in one year.

The profits of Inside Out are gone and Star Wars has got to have really strong legs past this opening weekend to really make up for this.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

With all of the hoopla that is surrounding Star Wars, I don't think a lot of people understand how much ground Disney has to make up for these two massive flops.

Coupled with their cable woes these two expensive failures are really weighing down the profitability of the studio division.

 

[twebber55]

With all of the hoopla that is surrounding Star Wars, I don't think a lot of people understand how much ground Disney has to make up for these two massive flops.

Coupled with their cable woes these two expensive failures are really weighing down the profitability of the studio division.

thats why i hope they double down on star wars in the parks

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

With all of the hoopla that is surrounding Star Wars, I don't think a lot of people understand how much ground Disney has to make up for these two massive flops.

Coupled with their cable woes these two expensive failures are really weighing down the profitability of the studio division.

Avengers Age Of Ultron actually underperformed and Ant-Man barely broke even, as well.

This was supposed to be their year for the ages and it really turned out to be a very expensive year where they are working for every dollar.

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

thats why i hope they double down on star wars in the parks

I hope that this troubling situation will make them move forward with the "Star Wars expansion" at a quicker pace, as well.

 

[DanBoris]

thats why i hope they double down on star wars in the parks

I personally would love that, but I doubt there will be any financial incentive to do so. If they actually build the SWL that is being described, adding an additional 1 or 2 attractions probably won't lead to that much greater attendance/revenue. Now if they wait for a few years after SWL opens and then build something else, that might be another story.

 

[twebber55]

I personally would love that, but I doubt there will be any financial incentive to do so. If they actually build the SWL that is being described, adding an additional 1 or 2 attractions probably won't lead to that much greater attendance/revenue. Now if they wait for a few years after SWL opens and then build something else, that might be another story.

agreed

 

[OnSpaceshipEarth]

agreed

There may be incentive to speed it up , though.