Aulani &/or Cabungahouse Points?

[Chili327]

I can check that for you. I remember doing the math and it blew my mind.

Here is the numbers that matter. It’s $402 difference in dues.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Okay I reworked it to fix the years left. So that changes the savings number to $11,258 saved if you keep it until expiration.

Now for what you asked. Be prepared to have your mind blown! To match a $115pp sub you’d have buy a non sub at $24.64pp.

For fun I added if you paid 0.00 for non sub upfront. This really highlights how dues are whats most important over the life as opposed to price per point.

I am 100% pro AUL-S. But I will include the downside just to be fair. It would take about 8-10 years to breakeven on your initial upfront cost being $3200 more than a non sub. ($95pp vs $115pp)






Lastly a disclaimer for the people that will come at me. This doesn’t factor in dues increases. This doesn’t factor in if you took your initial $3200 more spent and invested it. This doesnt include if the world comes to end. It’s rough numbers that I used to help me make an informed decision when I was buying.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

This doesn't include if the world comes to end.

Question on that. If the world does end, what happens to our BCV points in 2042?? (j/k!) Great analysis on AUL vs AUL-S.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Question on that. If the world does end, what happens to our BCV points in 2042?? (j/k!) Great analysis on AUL vs AUL-S.

Those with 2042 resorts will be hit the hardest because well it’s a 2042

 

[Chili327]

Okay I reworked it to fix the years left. So that changes the savings number to $11,258 saved if you keep it until expiration.

Now for what you asked. Be prepared to have your mind blown! To match a $115pp sub you’d have buy a non sub at $24.64pp.

For fun I added if you paid 0.00 for non sub upfront. This really highlights how dues are whats most important over the life as opposed to price per point.

I am 100% pro AUL-S. But I will include the downside just to be fair. It would take about 8-10 years to breakeven on your initial upfront cost being $3200 more than a non sub. ($95pp vs $115pp)



View attachment 983460


Lastly a disclaimer for the people that will come at me. This doesn’t factor in dues increases. This doesn’t factor in if you took your initial $3200 more spent and invested it. This doesnt include if the world comes to end. It’s rough numbers that I used to help me make an informed decision when I was buying.

Wow, so it really was a $90/pp difference!!
@VGCgroupie thanks so much for confirming I wasn’t losing my mind.

I’m definitely on the hunt for that September Unicorn Sub!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Wow, so it really was a $90/pp difference!!
@VGCgroupie thanks so much for confirming I wasn’t losing my mind.

I’m definitely on the hunt for that September Unicorn Sub!

I really hope you find it! Wouldn’t hurt to reach out to any brokers you have a relationship with and ask them to be on the lookout for you.

 

[Tatebeck]

I don't think I want to wait and compete for the Sep Aul Sub unicorn. I'm probably going to end up getting a Aul(s) in my Feb use year since that's where my VGC is already. I have been looking a bit already and Feb has a lot that pop up. It just makes more sense to me than SSR since I already have a ton of WDW points, the subsidized dues are lower, and it actually has some home resort priority. So I'll just split up my points into Florida and non Florida I guess.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don't think I want to wait and compete for the Sep Aul Sub unicorn. I'm probably going to end up getting a Aul(s) in my Feb use year since that's where my VGC is already. I have been looking a bit already and Feb has a lot that pop up. It just makes more sense to me than SSR since I already have a ton of WDW points, the subsidized dues are lower, and it actually has some home resort priority. So I'll just split up my points into Florida and non Florida I guess.

My 3 sub contracts are all Feb and paired with my VGC too. Feb pops up often.

 

[LisaDKG]

I thought I recently saw a breakdown on these boards of the UYs that were sold that then became subsidized contracts and there were 0 for September - which also happens to be MY UY and also happens to be something I am looking for. I wish I could remember which thread it was on here that I saw the breakdown.
As many of us here do, I check the aggregators every day for a while and I’ve never seen one. All my other contracts are in my UY and while I think it won’t be great for me to manage more than 1, I too am considering adding on another just for AULs.
Does anyone else know for sure if there IS or ISN’T even a possibility of a AULs in Sept UY out there?

 

[davidhr]

I thought I recently saw a breakdown on these boards of the UYs that were sold that then became subsidized contracts and there were 0 for September - which also happens to be MY UY and also happens to be something I am looking for. I wish I could remember which thread it was on here that I saw the breakdown.
As many of us here do, I check the aggregators every day for a while and I’ve never seen one. All my other contracts are in my UY and while I think it won’t be great for me to manage more than 1, I too am considering adding on another just for AULs.
Does anyone else know for sure if there IS or ISN’T even a possibility of a AULs in Sept UY out there?

I think I saw one once, but can’t say I’m 100% sure. There’s a good chance some owners with September UY added contracts when AUL started selling.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I thought I recently saw a breakdown on these boards of the UYs that were sold that then became subsidized contracts and there were 0 for September - which also happens to be MY UY and also happens to be something I am looking for. I wish I could remember which thread it was on here that I saw the breakdown.
As many of us here do, I check the aggregators every day for a while and I’ve never seen one. All my other contracts are in my UY and while I think it won’t be great for me to manage more than 1, I too am considering adding on another just for AULs.
Does anyone else know for sure if there IS or ISN’T even a possibility of a AULs in Sept UY out there?

I have also searched for that info and I cannot find it.

 

[davidhr]

I thought I recently saw a breakdown on these boards of the UYs that were sold that then became subsidized contracts and there were 0 for September - which also happens to be MY UY and also happens to be something I am looking for. I wish I could remember which thread it was on here that I saw the breakdown.
As many of us here do, I check the aggregators every day for a while and I’ve never seen one. All my other contracts are in my UY and while I think it won’t be great for me to manage more than 1, I too am considering adding on another just for AULs.
Does anyone else know for sure if there IS or ISN’T even a possibility of a AULs in Sept UY out there?

There are some datapoints for September here, so they definitely exist

https://www.dvcrofr.com/dis-data/pricing-trends

 

[Genie+]

First thing I notice is I was using wrong amounts for dues. lol (not $10.12 and $7.61)

Hmm, so about $400 per year x 36 = $14k, which would probably be pretty accurate for the remainder of the contract, but just based on this year alone, that would be $400 in dues / 160 = $2.50/pp? (2.5x36=90… but $90/pp can’t be the answer.!?)

This is crazy. lol
What am I doing wrong here, what is the cost per point difference amount needed to get a regular Aulani contract for to make it worth it over a Sub?

I feel like I’m losing my mind.

Yes. That $2.50pp is correct.

You went the circuitous route and basically ended up with the same answer as:

$10.12 - $7.61 = $2.51

 

[VGCgroupie]

Found SEPT here in 2024. https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3936707/

 

[LisaDKG]

There are some datapoints for September here, so they definitely exist

https://www.dvcrofr.com/dis-data/pricing-trends

Found SEPT here in 2024. https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3936707/

Thank you both!
That changes everything … on with the search!

 

[Girlstar30]

Okay I reworked it to fix the years left. So that changes the savings number to $11,258 saved if you keep it until expiration.

Now for what you asked. Be prepared to have your mind blown! To match a $115pp sub you’d have buy a non sub at $24.64pp.

For fun I added if you paid 0.00 for non sub upfront. This really highlights how dues are whats most important over the life as opposed to price per point.

I am 100% pro AUL-S. But I will include the downside just to be fair. It would take about 8-10 years to breakeven on your initial upfront cost being $3200 more than a non sub. ($95pp vs $115pp)



View attachment 983460


Lastly a disclaimer for the people that will come at me. This doesn’t factor in dues increases. This doesn’t factor in if you took your initial $3200 more spent and invested it. This doesnt include if the world comes to end. It’s rough numbers that I used to help me make an informed decision when I was buying.

Its really sad that we have to put a disclaimer because WE KNOW people are looking to attack at the first chance

 

[Chili327]

Yes. That $2.50pp is correct.

You went the circuitous route and basically ended up with the same answer as:

$10.12 - $7.61 = $2.51

But the more important number is the $90 lower than non sub per point in order to make it worth it.!!!

Thank you both!
That changes everything … on with the search!

Yep, game on!!

Technically I’m not ready to buy at the moment, so if you find one in the very near future i won’t be trying for it… yet.

 

[stat]

Its really sad that we have to put a disclaimer because WE KNOW people are looking to attack at the first chance

Truly not attacking, just wanted emphasize that the disclaimer about the time value of money is extremely important.

If a salesman tried to get you to invest in a bond that paid $2.50 per year for 36 years for $90, you'd be getting scammed. They'd effectively be saying 1) you don't deserve any financial return for letting them borrow your money for decades 2) a dollar in 36 years is worth exactly the same as a dollar today. So I would not use $90 valuation of the lower dues to feel good that AUL-S is a good deal.

The better way to view this is to discount each year of the $2.50 annual dues saved to get a single lump of present value in today's dollars. If you choose 4% as your discount rate (approximately what a typical high yield savings account pays) you get $47.27 or about half of the $90 with no discounting.

From that perspective, AUL-S you could pay up to ~$47 more for an AUL-S contract and break even. 6% brings it down to $36.55.

Either way, people are right to seek after these contracts since they typically go for less of a premium that my calculations above! In fact, the normal price spread implies a discount rate closer to what we'd see in the stock market.

 

[Girlstar30]

Truly not attacking, just wanted emphasize that the disclaimer about the time value of money is extremely important.

If a salesman tried to get you to invest in a bond that paid $2.50 per year for 36 years for $90, you'd be getting scammed. They'd effectively be saying 1) you don't deserve any financial return for letting them borrow your money for decades 2) a dollar in 36 years is worth exactly the same as a dollar today. So I would not use $90 valuation of the lower dues to feel good that AUL-S is a good deal.

The better way to view this is to discount each year of the $2.50 annual dues saved to get a single lump of present value in today's dollars. If you choose 4% as your discount rate (approximately what a typical high yield savings account pays) you get $47.27 or about half of the $90 with no discounting.

From that perspective, AUL-S you could pay up to ~$47 more for an AUL-S contract and break even. 6% brings it down to $36.55.

Either way, people are right to seek after these contracts since they typically go for less of a premium that my calculations above! In fact, the normal price spread implies a discount rate closer to what we'd see in the stock market.

Oh no wasnt talking about anyone in particular in this scenario, I am just talking about my own experiences where I feel like I need to be very careful and write "before someone comes at me" when giving advice/my opinion as some people (usually the same ones) like to pick it apart and/or get offended. Youre not one of them

 

[stat]

Oh no wasnt talking about anyone in particular in this scenario, I am just talking about my own experiences where I feel like I need to be very careful and write "before someone comes at me" when giving advice/my opinion as some people (usually the same ones) like to pick it apart and/or get offended. Youre not one of them

Yep, totally get it. Just wanted to make sure my reply wasn't taken as being critical especially since a disclaimer was given