Attack of the Lakeshore Lodge

[Patmcpsu]

I think DVC would be caught in “no man’s land” if they lowered dues to $9 but raised points to 1BR level, especially given they have to sell and fill several hundred units.

Using round numbers, CFW is currently $12/pt, but if they used $9/pt instead, a cabin around peak season would go from the current 24 points to 32 points (a 33 percent increase). For comparison, a 1BR at CCV at the same time would cost 37 points. CFW would land about halfway between a studio and a 1BR (as I think it should be).

 

[zavandor]

Using round numbers, CFW is currently $12/pt, but if they used $9/pt instead, a cabin around peak season would go from the current 24 points to 32 points (a 33 percent increase). For comparison, a 1BR at CCV at the same time would cost 37 points. CFW would land about halfway between a studio and a 1BR (as I think it should be).

That's a very bad idea.

Following your example, in peak season currently MF for one night are 12x24 = 288.
If they had increased the point per night it would be 9x32= 288.
Which means, that a person who buys to stay at the cabins would still pay $288 per night, but now they have to buy more points upfront, increasing their cost.
The only reason to buy CFW is to stay there and have home resort booking. It's not a resort for SAP. And if one buys to stay there, fewer points per night and higher MF are better than the opposite.

We can say that the problem with CFW is that the MF needed per night are too high, but that's built in the product, no way around that: they are individual units and have 6 beds, which means higher maintenance and cleaning costs. Also they have an internal bus loop, which means higher transportation fees.

Actually, we all gain from the current situation.
Owners who want 11 months booking can buy fewer points. The cheap point charts make people booking at 7 months happy. Disney cannot sell them so there will always be more points declared than sold, helping the whole DVC system (absorbing SAP and freeing competition at 7 months).

All win!

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

Using round numbers, CFW is currently $12/pt, but if they used $9/pt instead, a cabin around peak season would go from the current 24 points to 32 points (a 33 percent increase). For comparison, a 1BR at CCV at the same time would cost 37 points. CFW would land about halfway between a studio and a 1BR (as I think it should be).

Except it’s like 30% smaller than the already small CCV 1BR, doesn’t have washer/dryer or bath tub, has arguably the worst feature pool of any DVC, has one QS restaurant and that’s it (unless you count HDDR) … I could go on …

 

[Cfabar1]

I suspect DVC had the cabins forced upon them. In the same way DCL had the Disney Adventure forced upon them. It was a way to offload the replacement cost of the new units and hide it in my view. If this becomes a major issue at some point, it will be fascinating to see what emails or conversations around this product entering the DVC portfolio happened…

I also imagine that, as many have pointed out, the issues with the cabins go way beyond price. They include:
- Competition with flagship-esque resorts such as Riviera and Polynesian for that initial buy-in. Both of these are two of the most attractive DVC properties in the entire portfolio.
- Lack of deluxe style amenities and lack of a deluxe style location….
- Only one room type so families that might have varying needs or anticipate their needs changing over time have no 11 month advantage to owning at that resort
- High annual dues

While the trust thing turns me off, I doubt most buyers even reach that point of the discussion with them. It is so in the weeds, and I doubt the guides explain it unless absolutely necessary - and even then, I wonder if they really fully understand it themselves.

Right now the Cabins are selling for about the same cost per point for existing owners as the VGF Fire Sale at 150 points a few years ago…. Maybe a little more, but not much ($161 for VGF vs $167 for CFW by my count). I suspect that the cabins would need to be priced much lower to start meaningfully moving the product…

I do think it will be combined with LSL out of necessity/desperation.

Opening CFW as a DVC resort is probably the worst decision for a new DVC property they ever made. Only HHI and VB I can even think of as distant seconds….

Devil’s Advocate/Counter-opinion - our friend @Brian Noble has a great saying that “timeshares are sold not bought” Perhaps The reason why CFW is not doing well is because Disney, other than a couple of posters and Chip & Dale buttons, has not emphasized the idea of purchasing CFW and instead has heavily marketed the other actively selling properties. I would believe that more prior to the recent incentives which are pushing the Cabins. Maybe sales will uptick now that pricing has been revised downward for the cabins.

 

[zavandor]

Except it’s like 30% smaller than the already small CCV 1BR, doesn’t have washer/dryer or bath tub, has arguably the worst feature pool of any DVC, has one QS restaurant and that’s it (unless you count HDDR) … I could go on …

CFW should not be compared to 1BR.

Cabins are the only unit type costing in the Studio range to sleep 6.
They are the largest unit type costing in the Studio range in the whole DVC system, by far.
They are the only unit costing in the Studio range to have the privacy and quietness of not having neighbours on any side or above them.
They are the only unit type costing in the studio range to have a full kitchen.
They are the only unit type costing in the Studio range to have the option to close a door between two sleeping areas.

Cabins are units costing in the Studio range that have some of the advantages of other unit types that cost 2 to 4 times as many points.
They are Super Studios, not Lacking 1BR.

Do those advantages balance the disadvantages (high MF per night, convoluted transportation, horrible trust contract)?
Given that they are not selling well, the answer is that for many they don't.

 

[CarolynFH]

has arguably the worst feature pool of any DVC,

The new pool going in next to the FW Meadow Pool might resolve that problem.

 

[Patmcpsu]

The only reason to buy CFW is to stay there and have home resort booking. It's not a resort for SAP. And if one buys to stay there, fewer points per night and higher MF are better than the opposite.

This is a bit of circular reasoning. Yes, if you commit to $12/pt annual fees, it is specifically to access the awesome points chart at 11 months. Buying a CFW and staying elsewhere makes no sense because you're using expensive points at somewhere with an expensive points chart. If CFW had fees and a points chart that was in alignment with the rest of DVC, that effect would go out the window.

I also used to believe that CFW is a flawed product that nobody wants to use. But the fact that people clamor over it at 7 months suggests that there's interest. Maybe it's novelty of a new resort, or maybe it's the awesome points chart. People may not want to buy at CFW, but they certainly want to stay there.

But anyway, I don't want to hijack the LSL thread with CFW stuff. I just hope DVC doesn't repeat the same mistake.

 

[zavandor]

But anyway, I don't want to hijack the LSL thread with CFW stuff. I just hope DVC doesn't repeat the same mistake.

But the mistake is only for themselves, because they're not selling well.
For owners, both potential CFW purchasers and other owners in the DVC system, they bring only positives (as long they don't end in breakage).
I wish DVC makes more similar mistakes in the future!

CFW are a super niche product, they're only for people who want to stay repeatedly at the Fort during a high demand season (Halloween or Christmas) and buy a guaranteed week.
That's why they're not selling. But no harm to us if they don't sell well. We should rejoice the existence of CFW!

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

They are Super Studios, not Lacking 1BR.

But the whole discussion upthread was about raising the nightly point costs to create lower annual dues. Raising per night point costs does put them in 1BR range, which is a losing proposition. I think Disney chose wisely to keep per night point costs low and MFs high.

It’s a nice part of the portfolio to SAP at, not a good place to own IMO.