Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[mckennarose]

They don't know who has it because there are not enough tests available. I don't think they are restricting information about known cases but if you don't test it's not a confirmed case.

I get what you're saying, but another factor to consider is the reports of none or mild symptoms which wouldn't warrant a trip to the doctor or ER in the first place.

Or the weeks of people possibly getting "the flu" and treating it at home, or seeing their doctor for for "the flu" and the doctor treating them as such, with no other testing needed or done. How else could this have survived and spread for an estimated 6 weeks in Washington?

 

[Krandor]

I get what you're saying, but another factor to consider is the reports of none or mild symptoms which wouldn't warrant a trip to the doctor or ER in the first place.

Or the weeks of people possibly getting "the flu" and treating it at home, or seeing their doctor for for "the flu" and the doctor treating them as such, with no other testing needed or done. How else could this have survived and spread for an estimated 6 weeks in Washington?

I get some people may not think they need to be tested but it is clear there are a lot more people in the US that should be tested then are able to be.

 

[mckennarose]

I get some people may not think they need to be tested but it is clear there are a lot more people in the US that should be tested then are able to be.

I don't disagree that there is a shortage of tests available. Or that testing protocol has changed from "test at risk people from China" to "test according to symptoms".
I am just noting that some won't be tested because they don't feel they need medical attention. They should...just for the sake of tracking...but may not if they don't have symptoms or mild symptoms. Those are the ones I think about spreading it.

 

[Krandor]

I don't disagree that there is a shortage of tests available. Or that testing protocol has changed from "test at risk people from China" to "test according to symptoms".
I am just noting that some won't be tested because they don't feel they need medical attention. They should...just for the sake of tracking...but may not if they don't have symptoms or mild symptoms. Those are the ones I think about spreading it.

True some won't be tested but it doesn't look like everybody doctors want to test are able to be tested and that;s an issue. Why can the rest of the world test thousands a day and the US not?

 

[TwoMisfits]

I get what you're saying, but another factor to consider is the reports of none or mild symptoms which wouldn't warrant a trip to the doctor or ER in the first place.

Or the weeks of people possibly getting "the flu" and treating it at home, or seeing their doctor for for "the flu" and the doctor treating them as such, with no other testing needed or done. How else could this have survived and spread for an estimated 6 weeks in Washington?

It's a slow onset, so that slows notice of spread...

The Princess cruise ship showed how slow people get infected...but how damaging it could be once they are.

Depending if you think quarantine worked or didn't, folks on that ship are still just now getting diagnosed with the disease in dribs and drabs...and that's after 2 weeks of quarantine and days off the ship...and then there's the 3-4 week resolution of the illness...so you're talking a 6 week window.

It started effecting China is small form in December...and then went nuts in mid-Jan...so, they also had a 6 weeks or so ramp into the disease...

EDIT: B/c if you catch it, early onset for the 1st week of actually having the illness does not seem to be deadly...it's as it settles deep in the lungs in the following weeks that you see folks hospitalized (and unfortunately, not making it)...

 

[TwoMisfits]

True some won't be tested but it doesn't look like everybody doctors want to test are able to be tested and that;s an issue. Why can the rest of the world test thousands a day and the US not?

There was an Obama-era reg that wasn't lifted til Sunday...so it was probably one hand (the CDC) not talking to the other (local hospitals)...

 

[Searc]

True some won't be tested but it doesn't look like everybody doctors want to test are able to be tested and that;s an issue. Why can the rest of the world test thousands a day and the US not?

Because our government has put ridiculous parameters on who is allowed to be tested.

 

[HuskieJohn]

This is what has been on my mind since I first heard:
1. That they estimate the coronavirus has been spreading in Washington for possibly 6 weeks prior to any COVID diagnosis.
2. That it hit a nursing home, with especially vulnerable residents.

How could the virus have been spreading, undetected, for over a month? And not recognized until it hit a particularly vulnerable population? What happened to those who spread the virus? How could this have been undetected, ie: no spike in fatalities of unknown causes, for 6 weeks?

Logical assumption is that most cases resemble a cold or flu and people went on to recover. ??? If there was a sudden, drastic increase in fatalities in Washington with no known cause, wouldn't there have been more attention earlier?

Just thinking out loud here.

80% of the cases are not bad at all...but they are still spreading it.

 

[brent02139]

Sharing this article, observations from Assistant director for WHO on China response.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

So apparently (my summary)
-Most infections are to family members or close contacts. (maybe good news for parks?)
-They had a hard time finding people getting infected in the wild. As in, someone got on a bus and got infected, apparently it’s not enough to get sick from such contacts
-Social engineering and medical infrastructure made a huge difference in identifying and treating the patients
-Co-morbidity makes a big difference, especially if it’s of the cardiovascular systems. Hypertension and CV diseases are huge factors. And it doesn’t just damages to lungs but other organs as well.

 

[QueenElinor]

This is all very interesting and a lot to process.

So they had the ability to test for SARS-CoV2, but couldn't due to CDC guidelines?

That appears to be the case. I'll see if I can find the reference.
Again, the teenager didn't meet CDC guidelines for testing. They found him purely by accident, using different testing capacity. So we know they had other capacity somehow. How great that is, we don't know.

Does it seem most positive patients are hospitalized for isolation issues? Or is it due to actual medical issues?

Well, I wondered about that, too. It looks like most "well" patients are on home quarantine, for instance the teenager is at home, and I believe some infected Life Care Health staff. However, the cases in WA are so ill, that it's hard to say exactly what the policy is. Not a lot of minimally symptomatic patients to go by. But hospitalizing someone exposes a lot of people to the virus, so I'd bet those two are truly sick enough to be in the hospital.

It does bear mentioning that the differences between how things are handled in WA vs. CA or anywhere else is partly due to the fact that it's the state and local public health departments who are running the show. CDC is more of an advisor or consultant in this capacity.

 

[QueenElinor]

80% of the cases are not bad at all...but they are still spreading it.

I don't mean to pick on you but I see this everywhere. "Mild" in this context doesn't mean "not bad at all". It means that you'll get a "bad flu" *, but will likely be able to recover on your own without medical intervention. It's not a cold. While it's definitely variable between people, you could be down and out at home for a couple of weeks.

In Italy, half the people who get it are in the hospital. I hope that's because they might be missing a few mild cases, but they say they are trying to test everyone who could possibly have it.

*The chief public health officer for Seattle & King County, Dr. Jeff Duchin, used this phrase to describe what most people will experience.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

34 cases in UK in one day... And now they said that they will only advise on the locations once per week! So so wrong.

 

[QueenElinor]

@mckennarose here is the article about the Seattle Flu study:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...us-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/

The relevant part:

The case was actually found by the Seattle Flu Study. Bedford, a co-investigator, normally works on influenza but has been one of the key players trying to assess what is happening with the new virus by studying genetic sequences from around the world.

Frustrated by the lack of testing resulting from the problem with the CDC-developed kit, the Seattle Flu Study began using an in-house developed test to look for Covid-19 in samples from people who had flu-like symptoms but who had tested negative for flu. That work — permissible because it was research — uncovered the Snohomish County teenager.

Analysis of the genetic sequence of the virus from the teenager showed it was so closely related to that of Washington State’s first case that Bedford believes the teen was infected as part of a chain of transmission that started with the first case. That would mean the virus has been circulating in the northern part of the state for about six weeks.

 

[Searc]

That appears to be the case. I'll see if I can find the reference.
Again, the teenager didn't meet CDC guidelines for testing. They found him purely by accident, using different testing capacity. So we know they had other capacity somehow. How great that is, we don't know.


Well, I wondered about that, too. It looks like most "well" patients are on home quarantine, for instance the teenager is at home, and I believe some infected Life Care Health staff. However, the cases in WA are so ill, that it's hard to say exactly what the policy is. Not a lot of minimally symptomatic patients to go by. But hospitalizing someone exposes a lot of people to the virus, so I'd bet those two are truly sick enough to be in the hospital.

It does bear mentioning that the differences between how things are handled in WA vs. CA or anywhere else is partly due to the fact that it's the state and local public health departments who are running the show. CDC is more of an advisor or consultant in this capacity.

CDC guidelines were you were to be tested if you had traveled to China or had been in close contact with someone who had traveled to China. That guideline was supposedly revised a couple days ago, but there is not enough tests to go around, so some places are still not testing for it.

 

[HuskieJohn]

I don't mean to pick on you but I see this everywhere. "Mild" in this context doesn't mean "not bad at all". It means that you'll get a "bad flu" *, but will likely be able to recover on your own without medical intervention. It's not a cold. While it's definitely variable between people, you could be down and out at home for a couple of weeks.

In Italy, half the people who get it are in the hospital. I hope that's because they might be missing a few mild cases, but they say they are trying to test everyone who could possibly have it.

*The chief public health officer for Seattle & King County, Dr. Jeff Duchin, used this phrase to describe what most people will experience.

I agree but in the USA that typically means that MOST of those 80% are still going to work and school.

For my kids if they have a fever of 100.4 or vomit they have to stay home for 24hr..other then that they are good to go to school.

For my work during the busy time (Feb-May & Aug-Nov) in the recent past if we can get out of bed we are expected to be at work.

 

[Kestryl]

There was an Obama-era reg that wasn't lifted til Sunday...so it was probably one hand (the CDC) not talking to the other (local hospitals)...

I’m sorry, I tried to find this regulation that was lifted on Sunday. What is it?

 

[TwoMisfits]

I’m sorry, I tried to find this regulation that was lifted on Sunday. What is it?

It was mentioned at a press conference on Monday - I'll have to find the video (which is getting harder since stuff comes so fast and furiously every day now)...for now, the rule is being handled in reverse (what used to require prior approval will now get after-the-fact approval and oversight)...

 

[travelgirl77]

I definitely think there is a lot of evidence coming to light that this has been all over the place for months. Even the public health out of NY stated that one of the latest patients had been experiencing respiratory symptoms for about a month, and then things got really bad a week or so ago, and only then did he seek out treatment. It seems likely that this and other infected individuals thought they were dealing with the standard cold or flu and trugged on.

 

[QueenElinor]

CDC guidelines were you were to be tested if you had traveled to China or had been in close contact with someone who had traveled to China. That guideline was supposedly revised a couple days ago, but there is not enough tests to go around, so some places are still not testing for it.

Right, I'm talking about the management of the quarantines, school closures, etc. Those are handled by the locals.

 

[DrunkJam]

DS was due to go from Wales to Paris tomorrow for a school trip, including a day at DLP. That trip was cancelled this morning.