Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[anthony2k7]

Stumbled into this, if this is true this is terrible I really hope they become more proactive. I was also thinking that to have 9 deaths statistically they should have a lot more cases

Saw elsewhere that the plan to have tested 1 million by end of the week is likely to be missed by around 920000.

Shameful.

Can't help but feel it's perhaps intentional - if they aren't tested then they aren't confirmed cases. If they aren't confirmed cases perhaps panic will be suppressed.

 

[TwoMisfits]

So, this is the bad news of the day...sigh...trying to stay ant/grasshopper balanced...
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
"First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Third, we have vaccines and therapeutics for seasonal flu, but at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19. However, clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done, and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

And fourth, we don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu – it’s just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19. We don’t do contact tracing for seasonal flu – but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach."

 

[QueenElinor]

Stumbled into this, if this is true this is terrible I really hope they become more proactive. I was also thinking that to have 9 deaths statistically they should have a lot more cases

Not to diminish the loss of these people in any way, but this is not as bad (for the rest of us) as it sounds.

Most of these deaths in Washington are from a nursing home, and are directly analogous to what happened on the Diamond Princess. Just like you can't use DP statistics to generalize what would happen to other populations, you can't use these deaths to generalize the case fatality ratio or anything else about the rest of the Seattle metro area.

It's even easier to transmit infections through a nursing home than it is a cruise ship; it happens every year with the flu and numerous other viruses. And like a cruise ship, the population is older- but in this case, they're quite elderly, and in ill health.

All you can say with these stats is that it's really, really bad to get SARS-CoV2 in a nursing home. That's the only comparable population- other people in nursing homes. It tells us very little about the population outside of nursing homes.

Now, if you separate out the other two or three deaths, then you might make some generalizations, but I'd wait to see a lot more data.

 

[QueenElinor]

All of the talk about asymptomatic carriers is just from anecdotes and the occasional one-time sampling of contacts, family members, etc. that were never followed up. I don't think the general consensus has ever been that there were a lot of those, although certainly you hear it a lot in the media. There's never been any real evidence that there were. Dr. Fauci said it from the beginning. They're not important "drivers" of the epidemic, to use his phrase. Dr. Aylward, the leader of the WHO mission to China, said the same thing when they got back a week or two ago.

 

[mckennarose]

Most of these deaths in Washington are from a nursing home, and are directly analogous to what happened on the Diamond Princess. Just like you can't use DP statistics to generalize what would happen to other populations, you can't use these deaths to generalize the case fatality ratio or anything else about the rest of the Seattle metro area.

It's even easier to transmit infections through a nursing home than it is a cruise ship; it happens every year with the flu and numerous other viruses. And like a cruise ship, the population is older- but in this case, they're quite elderly, and in ill health.

This is what has been on my mind since I first heard:
1. That they estimate the coronavirus has been spreading in Washington for possibly 6 weeks prior to any COVID diagnosis.
2. That it hit a nursing home, with especially vulnerable residents.

How could the virus have been spreading, undetected, for over a month? And not recognized until it hit a particularly vulnerable population? What happened to those who spread the virus? How could this have been undetected, ie: no spike in fatalities of unknown causes, for 6 weeks?

Logical assumption is that most cases resemble a cold or flu and people went on to recover. ??? If there was a sudden, drastic increase in fatalities in Washington with no known cause, wouldn't there have been more attention earlier?

Just thinking out loud here.

 

[QueenElinor]

This is what has been on my mind since I first heard:
1. That they estimate the coronavirus has been spreading in Washington for possibly 6 weeks prior to any COVID diagnosis.
2. That it hit a nursing home, with especially vulnerable residents.

How could the virus have been spreading, undetected, for over a month? And not recognized until it hit a particularly vulnerable population? What happened to those who spread the virus? How could this have been undetected, ie: no spike in fatalities of unknown causes, for 6 weeks?

Logical assumption is that most cases resemble a cold or flu and people went on to recover. ??? If there was a sudden, drastic increase in fatalities in Washington with no known cause, wouldn't there have been more attention earlier?

Just thinking out loud here.

You are right on all counts, I think. And it masquerades as flu- which has been pretty bad this year. In fact, that's how that one teenager got picked up- random surveillance. They were just checking flu tests for COVID19 and up he came. I know that some epidemiologists have been trying to look back through the data and see if there was any small uptick in non-flu respiratory viruses, but there just is too much "noise" in the system to tell.

As for the nursing home, that is just pure bad luck. No other explanation I can think of for that. Maybe they'll find a link in nursing students etc. who went back and forth between there and the hospital who took care of that very first case back in January/early Feb. All it takes is one person.

 

[mckennarose]

I know that some epidemiologists have been trying to look back through the data and see if there was any small uptick in non-flu respiratory viruses, but there just is too much "noise" in the system to tell.

I have heard numerous times, at my doctor's office, from my sister and BIL who work in the health care system, that this year has been a very bad year for the flu. How can we know for sure if coronavirus didn't contribute?

If we look at the Chinese doctor who got arrested, contracted the virus, and later died, first reported this in the beginning of December 2019, how long had it been spreading PRIOR to that? It wasn't until the beginning of December that there was enough of an impact to get professionals to notice a problem. China didn't disclose or even admit there was a problem until late January. We're only a little over a month from that sort of time period.

It would be interesting to find out if there's an antibody test, similar to something like pertussis or mono, that could give evidence of people who had the virus at one point. Two of my children (now adults) have tested positive for prior mono infection and we never knew when they could've possibly contracted it, their infection was so mild.

I said a month ago that now that it's out of China we should get more accurate data to work with.

 

[Farro]

So, this is the bad news of the day...sigh...trying to stay ant/grasshopper balanced...
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
"First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Third, we have vaccines and therapeutics for seasonal flu, but at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19. However, clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done, and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

And fourth, we don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu – it’s just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19. We don’t do contact tracing for seasonal flu – but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach."

See I read that as good news.

The person sitting next to me who seems perfectly healthy most likely is not infected with Covid-19 and not going to infect me, unlike flu where they can infect me easier since they can transmit w/out symptoms.

Yes it can be more severe, but still far more people have milder cases.
We still don't know how many people thought they had the flu, never went to the doctor and actually had Covid-19 (which can lower death-rate)

Eventually we will start to build up immunity to certain strands.

Eventually (maybe even next year) will have better treatment options and hopefully a vaccine.
Containment is still possible, not at all possible for influenza.

Taking the CTA everyday, it's more reassuring that asymptomatic people don't seem to be spreading the virus. Much easier to avoid people who are coughing, etc.

 

[Krandor]

See I read that as good news.

The person sitting next to me who seems perfectly healthy most like is not infected with Covid-19 and not going to infect me, unlike flu where they can infect me easier since they can transmit w/out symptoms.

Yes it can be more severe, but still far more people have milder cases.
We still don't know how many people thought they had the flu, never went to the doctor and actually had Covid-19 (which can lower death-rate)

Eventually we will start to build up immunity to certain strands.

Eventually (maybe even next year) will have better treatment options and hopefully a vaccine.
Containment is still possible, not at all possible for influenza.

Taking the CTA everyday, it's more reassuring that asymptomatic people don't seem to be spreading the virus. Much easier to avoid people who are coughing, etc.

Agreed. The fact people are not transmitting it without symptoms is huge.

 

[Farro]

Agreed. The fact people are not transmitting it without symptoms is huge.

It really is. I was at my parents on Sunday and was slightly concerned about what if I had the virus and didn't know it and I infected them? They are 81, I would never forgive myself! Now I'll feel better about seeing them knowing that if I feel sick, stay away.

 

[TwoMisfits]

See I read that as good news.

The person sitting next to me who seems perfectly healthy most likely is not infected with Covid-19 and not going to infect me, unlike flu where they can infect me easier since they can transmit w/out symptoms.

Yes it can be more severe, but still far more people have milder cases.
We still don't know how many people thought they had the flu, never went to the doctor and actually had Covid-19 (which can lower death-rate)

Eventually we will start to build up immunity to certain strands.

Eventually (maybe even next year) will have better treatment options and hopefully a vaccine.
Containment is still possible, not at all possible for influenza.

Taking the CTA everyday, it's more reassuring that asymptomatic people don't seem to be spreading the virus. Much easier to avoid people who are coughing, etc.

It was more almost doubling the mortality rate to 3.6%...

 

[QueenElinor]

I have heard numerous times, at my doctor's office, from my sister and BIL who work in the health care system, that this year has been a very bad year for the flu. How can we know for sure if coronavirus didn't contribute?

If we look at the Chinese doctor who got arrested, contracted the virus, and later died, first reported this in the beginning of December 2019, how long had it been spreading PRIOR to that? It wasn't until the beginning of December that there was enough of an impact to get professionals to notice a problem. China didn't disclose or even admit there was a problem until late January. We're only a little over a month from that sort of time period.

It would be interesting to find out if there's an antibody test, similar to something like pertussis or mono, that could give evidence of people who had the virus at one point. Two of my children (now adults) have tested positive for prior mono infection and we never knew when they could've possibly contracted it, their infection was so mild.

I said a month ago that now that it's out of China we should get more accurate data to work with.

They're trying to do all of those things, but they've taken a backseat to the more pressing needs right now. But as to your first point, that is exactly what they are doing in Seattle and elsewhere- just running old flu samples looking for SARS-CoV2. And here's where it's really irritating- because those are research protocols, they didn't have to run it all by the FDA and CDC. Up until recently, only CDC-approved tests could be used to test actual sick people, and they had to go by the CDC guidelines. Some areas actually had testing available all along, but couldn't use it on patients!

As I mentioned earlier, that's how the teenager got picked up. Since he's the only one I know of, there mustn't have been much SARS-CoV2 out there, but they haven't really reported the results of the study, either. I know two 20-somethings were admitted to the hospital today. Perhaps they, too, were just random pick-ups from the flu surveillance testing, but not much is known about them yet.

 

[mckennarose]

This is all very interesting and a lot to process.

Some areas actually had testing available all along, but couldn't use it on patients!

So they had the ability to test for SARS-CoV2, but couldn't due to CDC guidelines?

I know two 20-somethings were admitted to the hospital today

Does it seem most positive patients are hospitalized for isolation issues? Or is it due to actual medical issues?

 

[Yarbogash]

Stumbled into this, if this is true this is terrible I really hope they become more proactive. I was also thinking that to have 9 deaths statistically they should have a lot more cases

Yeah, I mentioned this earlier; the number of tests done in the US has been pitiful. By mid last week my province in Canada with a population of 5 million people and only a handful of confirmed cases had done over 1300 tests. At the same time across the entire US there’d been less than 500 tests. Hard to get my head around that.

 

[Krandor]

Yeah, I mentioned this earlier; the number of tests done in the US has been pitiful. By mid last week my province in Canada with a population of 5 million people and only a handful of confirmed cases had done over 1300 tests. At the same time across the entire US there’d been less than 500 tests. Hard to get my head around that.

Agreed. I think it is known there are a lot more cases in the USA then reported and they are trying to keep that quiet. Of course doing so may make containment impossible and hurt in the long term.

 

[Jennifer Brooklyn]

Who caught it in Wuhan, per the post above yours. If this was some pandemic-inducing virus, people would be dying around the world who had CoronaVirus.

This post didn’t age well

 

[Searc]

This post didn’t age well

It was accurate four weeks ago when I posted it. It still isn't considered a pandemic.

 

[mckennarose]

. I think it is known there are a lot more cases in the USA then reported and they are trying to keep that quiet.

I think there are a lot more cases in the US than reported, but it's not a matter of censorship, its ignorance. They simply don't know who has/ had it.

Health departments have protocol in reporting contagious diseases and notifying the public. I don't think they're hiding it. If anything, the out of control sensationalized news stories and social media posts are more worrying to me.

 

[Krandor]

I think there are a lot more cases in the US than reported, but it's not a matter of censorship, its ignorance. They simply don't know who has/ had it.

Health departments have protocol in reporting contagious diseases and notifying the public. I don't think they're hiding it. If anything, the out of control sensationalized news stories and social media posts are more worrying to me.

They don't know who has it because there are not enough tests available. I don't think they are restricting information about known cases but if you don't test it's not a confirmed case.

There is zero reason for the US not to have plenty of testing kits available unless they are worried what the results will show.

 

[Jennifer Brooklyn]

It was accurate four weeks ago when I posted it. It still isn't considered a pandemic.

Totally not arguing with you, just pointing out a lot of people could see what was happening in Wuhan and the CDC and WHO were both raising alarms saying that it was only a matter of time before it was here in the United States. Many people thought/still think we are somehow going to be “immune” (pardon the pun) to the same outcome others countries are going through.