Are these resale prices normal or should I wait?

[Dismom18]

Hi all! I recently became a DVC member in the fall buying direct. Well, the addonitis bug has bitten and I have been tracking the resale market for the last couple months. I've had one contract taken in ROFR for what I thought was a good price for BLT. I've now put an offer on another contract for quite a bit more, as it seems that the prices are trending upwards since the summer and I am wondering if this is a temporary jump and things will die down. If so, should I wait it out and see if I can get a similiar deal to the summer's prices or buy now before pricing gets even higher?

 

[Brian Noble]

I am wondering if this is a temporary jump and things will die down.

There is only one way to know for sure!

(More seriously: no one really knows, but lots of people have opinions! If you find a deal for something at a price that you think is fair, go ahead and buy it. However, I'd recommend using the system for a year or two before immediately adding on. There is a honeymoon period when you start buying timeshares and it is easy to over-do it!)

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

ROFR goes through cycles of what properties they are buying back. Right now they seem to be being back a lot of BLT. Our sponsor (DVC Resale Market)'s two monthly reports are very enlightening:

March Right of First Refusal Report

DVC Resale Average Sales Prices

Gives you an idea of what they currently have been buying back and what prices have been for buybacks over the last 12 months.

 

[Dismom18]

There is only one way to know for sure!

(More seriously: no one really knows, but lots of people have opinions! If you find a deal for something at a price that you think is fair, go ahead and buy it. However, I'd recommend using the system for a year or two before immediately adding on. There is a honeymoon period when you start buying timeshares and it is easy to over-do it!)

Thank you for the advice! We are looking to add on resale so that we can get larger room accommodations (primarily 2bdrms). I am just unsure as to what is considered a "deal" as I've only seen pricing for the last six months. The summer had BLT at 130's per point now I see them at 160 plus. Have prices always jumped up so quickly or is this simply a Covid anomaly?

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Covid was definitely a factor in the dip in pricing because of the uncertainty. Nobody knew when Disney might open up again. The long term value was always there, but people were holding back because of the uncertainty in the near term.

 

[Dismom18]

ROFR goes through cycles of what properties they are buying back. Right now they seem to be being back a lot of BLT. Our sponsor (DVC Resale Market)'s two monthly reports are very enlightening:

March Right of First Refusal Report

DVC Resale Average Sales Prices

Gives you an idea of what they currently have been buying back and what prices have been for buybacks over the last 12 months.

Thank you! Too bad I was too scared and didn't buy back in the summer

 

[skippytx]

If the contract that works for you comes up for sale just buy it. The initial point cost is a small portion of the overall cost of DVC that I don't stress about it.

I bought resale back in July 2017. I waited for prices to go back to "normal" since BLT was selling in the 100 to 115 range in late 2016/early 2017. I ended up paying 125 a point in July 2017 on a 160 point contract, and I am so glad that I did. BLT was above 130 shortly after.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

You of course can offer less than the listed price on a broker's website.
Another helpful website that uses data from DISBoard users going through resale process can be interesting
https://www.dvcstats.com/#/resale-costs(click on the columns to sort)
though it's certainly a much smaller sample than DVCResaleMarket's reports.

 

[E2ME2]

Thank you for the advice! We are looking to add on resale so that we can get larger room accommodations (primarily 2bdrms). I am just unsure as to what is considered a "deal" as I've only seen pricing for the last six months. The summer had BLT at 130's per point now I see them at 160 plus. Have prices always jumped up so quickly or is this simply a Covid anomaly?

I think we're still seeing the effects of the Covid-Coaster
I was able to pick up SSR at $88.89/Point in the middle of COVID.
After our first successful SnowBird trip in Jan/Feb, I had a resurgence in my Addonitis affliction and went looking for some AKL points. I probably could have gotten them anywhere between $105-$115 last summer, and I wound up paying closer to $125.
Usually, there is a little bit of a buyers market in January-February; it will be interesting to see what happens to resale prices in early 2022!

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, I think if you find the perfect one, as already mentioned, just take it.

Even $10/pt more is $1000 on a 100 points. That’s just an extra $100 a year for the first 10 years. Not enough to let something go that fits your needs in hopes you save it later.

 

[Dismom18]

Honestly, I think if you find the perfect one, as already mentioned, just take it.

Even $10/pt more is $1000 on a 100 points. That’s just an extra $100 a year for the first 10 years. Not enough to let something go that fits your needs in hopes you save it later.

I don’t think I would mind a 10 pt/$1000 difference but now it seems to be a 30 per point/ $3000 difference and I’m a bit shocked at the price hike. I haven’t paid attention to the other resorts, as I’ve had my eye primarily on BLT and on occasion VGF and the price has jumped on both of these resorts. Just trying to rationalize if the price difference is worth it, in addition to the fact that these prices are close to what I’ve paid for my direct contract?

 

[Brian Noble]

I know it's hard to think this way, but the only real question is: Would you find good value out of a BLT ownership for which you pay $X/point? The fact that it used to cost $30/pt doesn't really matter, because that's not where the market is now. In the same vein, what it might have cost direct back when you bought also doesn't have much bearing on whether or not this resale purchase gives you good value for what you want.

 

[Dismom18]

I know it's hard to think this way, but the only real question is: Would you find good value out of a BLT ownership for which you pay $X/point? The fact that it used to cost $30/pt doesn't really matter, because that's not where the market is now. In the same vein, what it might have cost direct back when you bought also doesn't have much bearing on whether or not this resale purchase gives you good value for what you want.

Yes, thank you for the advice and putting things into perspective

 

[davidl81]

Although prices are high right now, it’s really hard to say if prices will “drop” down again. Short of a major recession I don’t see prices falling. Most likely they just level out at some point. So although it sucks to think about what they cost a year ago, just like real estate it rarely goes back down once it goes up.

 

[Bearval]

Although prices are high right now, it’s really hard to say if prices will “drop” down again. Short of a major recession I don’t see prices falling. Most likely they just level out at some point. So although it sucks to think about what they cost a year ago, just like real estate it rarely goes back down once it goes up.

I agree, unless there is a major economic down turn you are not going to see a big price drop just a leveling off or down a couple of dollars a point. COVID didn't seem to have any affect on creating a price drop that I was expecting but I did luck out and pick up an international 100 point AKL contract for $105 a point in December.

 

[Gf77]

ㅤ

 

[RoseGold]

Disney has scrapped reflections and has nothing at WDW but RIV to sell. I expect prices to keep going up.

I do think RIV resale could take a hit, because at this rate it will be being direct sold for years more. Historically, DIS does very little ROFR for properties they are selling.

 

[Bearval]

I was also planning on adding on resale after my two direct contracts. That’s on hold now, and likely won’t happen, if ever, until the eventual economic downturn happens. The resale prices are approaching direct with incentive prices for a few locations. People complain about the Riviera resale restrictions all the time, but what’s worse is buying a resale contract for the same price as direct and having that resale be restricted from day 1. At least with Riviera it isn’t restricted until the next person buys it.

I think you are going to be waiting a long time for that economic down turn unless we get hit with another year or two of pandemic lockdowns. I would expect the economy to have a little bit of a boom when more and more of the country begins to return to "normal". The big problem with RIV is the point charts are a killer, especially for a standard 2 bedroom compared to AKL and BWV. I know RIV is considered " high end" but in my case I am looking to spend the majority of my time in the parks and at the pool and just looking for a place where my family can spread out a little bit when in the room. 80 to 100+ more points for a week in November is a lot in my opinion and that is that many more points you are going to have to pay yearly dues on too.

 

[Gf77]

ㅤ

 

[Bearval]

Putting aside economic forecasts, I don’t think the Riviera point charts are crazy compared to VGF. Is there a specific example or just overall? Also, you have the option of Tower studios, which can really stretch your points if you don’t need the bigger rooms/kitchenette and want to stay twice as long, or run into a situation like I did where I needed two studios but only one kitchenette. I’m not saying it’s perfect for everyone, I’m just saying if price per point was a major holdback for someone, that negative is almost negligible at this point.

Compared to VGF no but a week during Jun 11 to Aug 31 or Oct 1 to Nov 22 in 2022 for a standard view 2 bedroom at RIV will cost you 375 points , at AKL 265 and BWV 262. AS a side note I would not buy at VGF direct either due to the high point charts there but at least you can book at the other resorts with the exception of RIV if you bought resale. Just the maintenance fees for a week during this period is high.

2021 pricing
AKL- $2141
BWV- $2049
RIV - $3146