Are any Disney guests average income people?

[Jonfw2]

I think you need to break out the AP holders into two different segments. The locals vs the out of towners. For example, we travel once a year. We buy an annual pass and go the second year 1 week earlier. Saves us a couple hundred bucks over two x 10 day tickets. All though we are technically an AP holder, our spending habits fall more in line with the annual traveller than the local AP holder. It's the local day tripper AP holder that they are trying to reduce.

So question for you: if there were no APs at all, would you go for that many days?

 

[Jonfw2]

None of that is “extra” to Disney.
Look at it this way: If AP holders use more than 9days, Disney has lost money on them compared to what they would get from day tickets.

Incorrect- you're assuming that guest would actually pay full price to go the extra days. He/she likely would not.

 

[Jonfw2]

None of that is “extra” to Disney.
Look at it this way: If AP holders use more than 9days, Disney has lost money on them compared to what they would get from day tickets.

Incorrect- you're assuming that guest would actually pay full price to go the extra days. He/she likely would not.

 

[OhDannyBoy]

It's the local day tripper AP holder that they are trying to reduce.

They succeeded with me. I have no interest in going to Disney for a week and it's not even close to being worth $130 per ticket per day.

We have our big hurrah in February but that's going to be it for us. And that's ok.

Yes. But why wouldn't they want both? APs are an enticement to get people who might go for, say, seven days or one trip to go for 10-14 days or two trips: it's "cheaper to them" in that the cost per ticket drops, but it's more real dollars for Disney.

Then why have blackout dates or tiered AP's? Wouldn't limiting when I can come also limit how much I can spend? I'm not buying anything if I'm not there.

 

[Jonfw2]

They succeeded with me. I have no interest in going to Disney for a week and it's not even close to being worth $130 per ticket per day.

We have our big hurrah in February but that's going to be it for us. And that's ok.


Then why have blackout dates or tiered AP's? Wouldn't limiting when I can come also limit how much I can spend? I'm not buying anything if I'm not there.

Ah- that's because those are the days they don't NEED APs- because they'll get enough non-APs in the doors without the freeloaders!

 

[OhDannyBoy]

Ah- that's because those are the days they don't NEED APs- because they'll get enough non-APs in the doors without the freeloaders!

Freeloaders with money in their pockets. By your own argument that's where the money is made anyways right? buy the extras and add ons?

 

[Jonfw2]

Freeloaders with money in their pockets. By your own argument that's where the money is made anyways right? buy the extras and add ons?

Yes....let me give you an analogy:

When cruises aren't sold out, they reach out to their regulars and offer them incredible deals to cruise at the last minute. Why do they do that? Because it's better to have the rooms full- even at almost zero ticket price- than empty. Those free cruisers will buy drinks, excursions, souvenirs. In short, they'll make a profit for the cruise line even at almost no ticket charge.

That is APs to Disney. If Disney can fill the park without them, they'd prefer to- that's your blackout dates. But if they can't? They want as many APs to show up as possible to spend a little- even at little to no ticket cost.

 

[Jonfw2]

There's another element to APs here that falls into the same category as airline rewards programs. Some of the posters here might argue "why give away free flights? Just charge those people full price- they'll fly anyways".

The answer is brand loyalty. It's not just the choice between going and not going to Disney that people have. It's Disney or its competitors. In business, you reward your most loyal customers to KEEP THEM your most loyal customers.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

So question for you: if there were no APs at all, would you go for that many days?

Yes. It's basically two annual trips

 

[Jonfw2]

Yes. It's basically two annual trips

Even at the tremendous increased cost?

 

[CanadaDisney05]

There's another element to APs here that falls into the same category as airline rewards programs. Some of the posters here might argue "why give away free flights? Just charge those people full price- they'll fly anyways".

The answer is brand loyalty. It's not just the choice between going and not going to Disney that people have. It's Disney or its competitors. In business, you reward your most loyal customers to KEEP THEM your most loyal customers.

Here is where I believe the analogy falls apart, which lines up with my original point. What you are saying makes logical sense, but its based on a premise that I believe to be false. IMO, Disney doesn't believe their is an over supply. It's not a situation where something is better than nothing. IMO, Disney believes that for every AP in the park they are discouraging a 4 to 7 day tripper from coming. It may not be a 1 to 1 ratio, but they feel that having too many AP holders is leading to over crowding which is discouraging vacationers. Since vacationers have a significantly higher profit margin, even if they lose more AP holders than vacationers that they bring in, the overall profit will be significantly higher.

 

[Jonfw2]

Here is where I believe the analogy falls apart, which lines up with my original point. What you are saying makes logical sense, but its based on a premise that I believe to be false. IMO, Disney doesn't believe their is an over supply. It's not a situation where something is better than nothing. IMO, Disney believes that for every AP in the park they are discouraging a 4 to 7 day tripper from coming. It may not be a 1 to 1 ratio, but they feel that having too many AP holders is leading to over crowding which is discouraging vacationers. Since vacationers have a significantly higher profit margin, even if they lose more AP holders than vacationers that they bring in, the overall profit will be significantly higher.

I'm not sure what your evidence is that Disney feels they have to many APs. I can see during the very limited capacity days of Covid where that would be an issue, but at full capacity, the parks rarely sellout- maybe only a couple days a year. Their concern isn't days where the parks are too full. Their concern is days where they're too empty.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Even at the tremendous increased cost?

As a percentage of the overall cost of travelling annually for 7 to 10 days, the increase in cost is relatively minor. But the point was that they didn't increase the cost enough to disaude the 1 or 2 time per year traveller from purchasing. But it may be enough to dissuade some locals. As a percentage of their annual spending on Disney, it's much higher

 

[Turksmom]

So question for you: if there were no APs at all, would you go for that many days?

You didn't ask me, but I'll answer too because my answer is different. I'm an out of state, non DVC AP. We (family of 5) take multiple trips per year, usually on property. Usually for at least 7 days. However, I'll take 2 day trips for work or with Turksdad for conferences. When we'd find good hotel discounts, or low cost air fare, the kids and I would take a few shorter trips
Since Disney changes seem to be up in the air next year and Incredipass is not cheap, I am the only one who got the AP. Now we're traveling to Orlando in Oct. for a conference at the Gaylord. I'm staying at Coronado for one night with kids- I'm going to go to a park or two for a short time (riding Kali before it closes for refurb and getting Muppet Haunted Mansion eclairs for everyone) then we're moving to Universal. If we all had passes, we'd be at Disney the whole time.

 

[Jonfw2]

As a percentage of the overall cost of travelling annually for 7 to 10 days, the increase in cost is relatively minor. But the point was that they didn't increase the cost enough to disaude the 1 or 2 time per year traveller from purchasing. But it may be enough to dissuade some locals. As a percentage of their annual spending on Disney, it's much higher

Sorry- my point is this: if you go for 14 park days because the last, say, 4 of them are "free" with AP, would you still do the full 14 park days if the last 4 were full price tickets. That's an extra $2,400 for a family of 4.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I'm not sure what your evidence is that Disney feels they have to many APs. I can see during the very limited capacity days of Covid where that would be an issue, but at full capacity, the parks rarely sellout- maybe only a couple days a year. Their concern isn't days where the parks are too full. Their concern is days where they're too empty.

“AS YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT GUESTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY ARE COMING FROM, HAVE DIFFERENT RELATIVE VALUES IN TERMS OF THEIR CONTRIBUTION AS A GUEST TO THE PARK. TYPICALLY SOMEONE WHO TRAVELS AND STAYS FOR 5-7 DAYS IS MARGINALLY MORE VALUABLE TO THE BUSINESS THAN SOMEONE WHO COMES IN ON AN ANNUAL PASS AND STAYS A DAY OR TWO AND CONSUMES LESS MERCHANDISE AND FOOD AND BEVERAGE.”

Disney CEO Bob Chapek, August 4, 2020

 

[Jonfw2]

“AS YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT GUESTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY ARE COMING FROM, HAVE DIFFERENT RELATIVE VALUES IN TERMS OF THEIR CONTRIBUTION AS A GUEST TO THE PARK. TYPICALLY SOMEONE WHO TRAVELS AND STAYS FOR 5-7 DAYS IS MARGINALLY MORE VALUABLE TO THE BUSINESS THAN SOMEONE WHO COMES IN ON AN ANNUAL PASS AND STAYS A DAY OR TWO AND CONSUMES LESS MERCHANDISE AND FOOD AND BEVERAGE.”

Disney CEO Bob Chapek, August 4, 2020

I don't argue with the economics here. But there's a lot more to the story. Further, in an ideal world, you'd make EVERYONE a fully paying customer. But it doesn't work that way. People (like Turksmom above) change their habits when costs rise.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Sorry- my point is this: if you go for 14 park days because the last, say, 4 of them are "free" with AP, would you still do the full 14 park days if the last 4 were full price tickets. That's an extra $2,400 for a family of 4.

No I wouldn't. So by giving me the extra 4 "free" days, I'm in the park costing them money, without generating any revenue.

 

[Jonfw2]

No I wouldn't. So by giving me the extra 4 "free" days, I'm in the park costing them money, without generating any revenue.

But you ARE generating them revenue! And profit! If you buy lunch and a Mickey Bar, they are profiting from you.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I don't argue with the economics here. But there's a lot more to the story. Further, in an ideal world, you'd make EVERYONE a fully paying customer. But it doesn't work that way. People (like Turksmom above) change their habits when costs rise.

Right.... which means they are succeeding....

I get it, they will lose some high margin guests. It's inevitable. I think, in their opinion they will gain more high margin guests than they will lose. Will that play out? Nobody knows.