Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[whiporee]

I think what's causing the cuts is those hours don't make as much sense to WDW as guests would like to believe they do, and if they can find a way to monetize them, they should.

Because I don't see an advantage for WDW to offer them for free. I know why guests like them, because people always want more, but if it's not alleviating crowds during the main part of the day, and it's not helping guest satisfaction because the lines remain long. I do think giving the guests the choice of a forced late arrival might get rid of some mid-day crowd, but that's just a guess.

 

[jbharr1]

I intentionally tried to remove Easter from the equation, and I think the first week of data does that

But I think part of the issue with crowd calendar surprises this year was because Easter was so early that it pushed spring breaks to non-traditional weeks. If your school district schedules spring break around Easter week then it will be different every year and could be different by a lot. 4th of July, labor day, thanksgiving will all be in pretty much the same week. Easter may not be in the same month

 

[JimmyV]

But I think part of the issue with crowd calendar surprises this year was because Easter was so early that it pushed spring breaks to non-traditional weeks. If your school district schedules spring break around Easter week then it will be different every year and could be different by a lot. 4th of July, labor day, thanksgiving will all be in pretty much the same week. Easter may not be in the same month

That may be true, but a lot of the Spring breaks in April come from the Northeast where the breaks are rather static and do not move to match Easter. There are definitely school districts that move theirs around, but an awful lot that don't. It is always the first, or second, or third week in April irrespective of when Easter falls. About half the time the break captures Easter and sometimes it doesn't. In the end, none of this matters, because Disney could see when Easter was this year, and if it wanted to bust out extended hours this year like it did last year, it easily could have. But for some reason it didn't, and people definitely felt the pain because of it.

 

[jbharr1]

I don't think MK should be open until 1a to provide scarcity unless it is EMH or paid event. If you can ride BTMRR over and over at 1230 with a park close of 1a then the park was open too late. It's ok for EMH because the cost is supposedly baked into resort rates.

 

[JimmyV]

I think what's causing the cuts is those hours don't make as much sense to WDW as guests would like to believe they do, and if they can find a way to monetize them, they should.

It probably is just as simple as that. The guest loves the late hours because only 10% of people stay that late and the park is almost empty. Disney hates the late hours because only 10% of the people stay that late and the park is almost empty. A classic example of something being great for the consumer but bad for the company. So all you folks who want to revel in an empty park have to pay for it. But this comes awfully close to being "causation", and apparently we aren't supposed to go there.

 

[JimmyV]

I don't think MK should be open until 1a to provide scarcity unless it is EMH or paid event. If you can ride BTMRR over and over at 1230 with a park close of 1a then the park was open too late.

Tough call. It may be that single sense of euphoria that makes the trip worthwhile to many people. They tolerate the crowds so that they can flourish in the emptiness. Without the emptiness, maybe they wouldn't book the trip. That takes this to a level of economics and psychology that I am ill-equipped to analyze. But from an individual standpoint, many of my fondest memories of my many trips to WDW were formed after midnight at E-Ticket nights, EMH nights, or just plain ol' late nights. I wish everyone could experience that.

 

[NYDisGuy]

It probably is just as simple as that. The guest loves the late hours because only 10% of people stay that late and the park is almost empty. Disney hates the late hours because only 10% of the people stay that late and the park is almost empty. A classic example of something being great for the consumer but bad for the company. So all you folks who want to revel in an empty park have to pay for it. But this comes awfully close to being "causation", and apparently we aren't supposed to go there.

Yet people (Disney) will argue that the latest reduced attendance was on purpose to give the theme park guest a better experience. So I guess they only want to give you a taste then charge you for it.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I wouldn't say "meaningless". There may not be "causation" as you say, but if there isn't then we are left with: "Hours are being cut...just because." You are right that events might not cause the cuts. But something is. And for the paying customer, does the reason matter?

Does it matter why? The why always matters if you seek understanding. You tied them together in your title. I am fine with you doing so, as long as everyone understands that you doing so in the title does not actually link the two in any way.

 

[whiporee]

Tough call. It may be that single sense of euphoria that makes the trip worthwhile to many people. They tolerate the crowds so that they can flourish in the emptiness. Without the emptiness, maybe they wouldn't book the trip. That takes this to a level of economics and psychology that I am ill-equipped to analyze. But from an individual standpoint, many of my fondest memories of my many trips to WDW were formed after midnight at E-Ticket nights, EMH nights, or just plain ol' late nights. I wish everyone could experience that.

They can but it's not as free as people remember it being. For example, the E-ticket nights were after a park ticket, so they were an additional 15 bucks after you had already paid admission. And even if they don't want to pay for DAH, they can still stay at a resort for an EMH night. The option is there if someone really wants to take it.

 

[whiporee]

It probably is just as simple as that. The guest loves the late hours because only 10% of people stay that late and the park is almost empty. Disney hates the late hours because only 10% of the people stay that late and the park is almost empty. A classic example of something being great for the consumer but bad for the company. So all you folks who want to revel in an empty park have to pay for it. But this comes awfully close to being "causation", and apparently we aren't supposed to go there.

And the thing is, I have no problem with that. I think it's fair and I think it's appropriate, and I guess I have an issue with folk who get mad because Disney does NOT want to operate the park on those scarce hours. To me, it makes perfect sense that you close when you close,a nd if someone wants to pay be have less crowds, why not offer that? I don't see WDW as having an obligation to be open 16 hours just because they used to do it. Businesses change, and so do business models. I don't see what's so wrong about Disney making that decision, regardless of what they've done in the past.

 

[JimmyV]

I am fine with you doing so, as long as everyone understands that you doing so in the title does not actually link the two in any way.

I guess I am missing your point entirely. The title of my post raises a question. It does not say:

"After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Are Cutting Into Regular Hours!

which seems to be how you are reading it. The question is raised and some data is presented. There is no conclusion that is compelled by any of this.

And no, sometimes the "why" doesn't matter. The consumer in this instance is confronted by hours over which they have no control. Understanding why the hours are what they are plays no part other than idle curiosity. No one is going to base their decision to go or not go based on an understanding of the reasoning behind a cut in hours. But they may decide to go or not go base on the hours themselves.

 

[ajfd]

For comparison, MK hours for the first full week in May over the last few years:

2012: 93 + 4 EMH
2013: 94 + 4 EMH
2014: 101 + 3 EMH
2015: 104 + 3 EMH
2016: 98 + 3 EMH

 

[JimmyV]

For comparison, MK hours for the first full week in May over the last few years:

2012: 93 + 4 EMH
2013: 94 + 4 EMH
2014: 101 + 3 EMH
2015: 104 + 3 EMH
2016: 98 + 3 EMH

As noted earlier, there is ammo on all sides. Plot this out on a graph and it is a steady incline followed by a cliff dive. But looking at the scatter graph, 2016 is in the middle.

 

[ajfd]

Plot this out on a graph and it is a steady incline followed by a cliff dive. But looking at the scatter graph, 2016 is in the middle.

I'd say it's a huge jump followed by a reversion to the mean!

 

[cel_disney]

This is great data (I'm a data driven gal!).

I will be interested to see how the last week of May ends up shaping up for final hours. I know this does not look at other events at the parks, My expectation is that with the significant growth in Animal Kingdom hours planned for that final week, we might not see much change in MK hours from the planned one, BUT - I also think with the huge increase at AK - that's perfectly sensible as many will surely be trying that out!!

Keep the data coming!

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I guess I am missing your point entirely. The title of my post raises a question. It does not say:

"After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Are Cutting Into Regular Hours!

which seems to be how you are reading it. The question is raised and some data is presented.

LOL - Your title reads like the headline on so many articles. You, like the media, want to claim that you point no fingers, but the reality is that you could have pointed out what you perceive to be a cut in hours without putting these things in the subject line. You chose your title for a reason.

 

[MinnieSweetheart]

I think what's causing the cuts is those hours don't make as much sense to WDW as guests would like to believe they do, and if they can find a way to monetize them, they should.

Because I don't see an advantage for WDW to offer them for free. I know why guests like them, because people always want more, but if it's not alleviating crowds during the main part of the day, and it's not helping guest satisfaction because the lines remain long. I do think giving the guests the choice of a forced late arrival might get rid of some mid-day crowd, but that's just a guess.

I actually was wondering if that was something people would go for.... Morning people tickets from open until 4 and then evening tickets from 4 until at least 11. I think if they could figure out a way to split the people into two separate groups that would do a lot to alleviate the crowds. It wouldn't be that hard to scan tickets/MBs like they do at EMH - they'd really only have to do it for the first hour or so. I would very often be content to spend 4-11 in the parks, especially if I could get my tickets for 20-30% less.

 

[MinnieSweetheart]

I'd say it's a huge jump followed by a reversion to the mean!

Are you suggesting crowd levels have reverted to the mean?

 

[tarak]

I agree completely. And I would argue that there should be a 1:00 a.m. thrown in once a week from March through August. There are lots of reports about how great the DAH event is in terms of crowd scarcity. But when the park is open until 1:00 a.m, or evening EMHs go from midnight until 2:00, you pretty much capture that same effect. Not exactly, I admit. But c'mon! How scarce does the crowd have to be? Anyone who complains that they had to wait 2 minutes to ride BTMRR instead of riding it in succession without getting off is making a case that is hard to get behind, IMHO. It would be nice to see more of these "Included" or EMH type of evenings. When EMHs go from 10:00-midnight, (or even 11:00-1:00), it isn't quite the same.

I wouldn't say that DAH and EMH from 12-2 is the same, at least in our experience. Last August 22, the lines during EMH were still about thirty minutes for the mountains, and this was after 1 am. It was a Saturday, so maybe expected. But if that's the only night we can take advantage of them, it's not much of a benefit for us.

 

[jknc]

After I read this entire thread I got a push notification to print my Math degree.

Thank you.