Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[Mikie]

So what exactly are "regular park hours?" 10-8? 9-10? I'm talking "regular" hours, not what time MK was open in 1995, or 2004, or 2010, or even last year, just "regular hours?"

Good question - there has been some debate about that in similar threads, yet I haven't seen a definitive answer. Some want to say it's 10-8, though there's no Disney source - logic behind that one seems to be take the latest used opening and the earliest used closing (without special events) and call these "regular" with everything else bring "added". Others seem to want to call it variable by season but whatever hours are first posted by Disney for a given month are "regular" with any eventual extensions being "added" or "bonus".

 

[DLM1980]

So what exactly are "regular park hours?" 10-8? 9-10? I'm talking "regular" hours, not what time MK was open in 1995, or 2004, or 2010, or even last year, just "regular hours?"

I don't think that's a fair question because disney based on projected forecasts for attendance, time of year, budget constraints, staffing abilities determines the hours for a specific day.

Using the past hours as an average would give a better idea of what regular hours are but we need more than one or two years worth to create a "better average" of hours

Unlike six flags, Disney doesn't really provide a "season" operating schedule at the beginning of the year and stick to it.

 

[rajak73]

I don't think that's a fair question because disney based on projected forecasts for attendance, time of year, budget constraints, staffing abilities determines the hours for a specific day.

Using the past hours as an average would give a better idea of what regular hours are but we need more than one or two years worth to create a "better average" of hours

Unlike six flags, Disney doesn't really provide a "season" operating schedule at the beginning of the year and stick to it.

Then you can't determine park hours gained or lost with operating hours before 10 or operating hours after 8

 

[rajak73]

Good question - there has been some debate about that in similar threads, yet I haven't seen a definitive answer. Some want to say it's 10-8, though there's no Disney source - logic behind that one seems to be take the latest used opening and the earliest used closing (without special events) and call these "regular" with everything else bring "added". Others seem to want to call it variable by season but whatever hours are first posted by Disney for a given month are "regular" with any eventual extensions being "added" or "bonus".[/QUOTE]
I actually like your answer, I think it's the closest. So my point is, if Disney posts June hours from 9-11, then your ticket you bought is for hours 9-11. If they add extra hours like they used to, that's just a bonus of hours, not because that's the way it was last year or that you're paying more for less hours. It may be less hours but just because they were open last year until 12am, doesn't mean they have to stay open this year until 12am unless it's posted as regular hours. Using Jimmy's math, everything is before 10am and after 8pm so that ticket is guaranteed hours between 10 and 8, anything before or after that is bonus hours no matter what the hours have been the last 10 years.

 

[fbb]

Bottom line, less hours = less money in your pocket = more money in Disney's. And while it may only be a few hours to us, don't fool yourselves... It is mountains of money back to the Mouse.

I'm am astounded by those who choose to justify this... repeatedly. If I went to the grocery store to buy milk yesterday and it cost $3 a carton, and went again to buy more and the same milk (or even a smaller size) was now $9, I would be surprised and disappointed. I would complain. I can't believe how many on this board would happily accept the smaller, more expensive milk, and defend the grocery store's policies in the process.

In my pessimistic heart, I suspect a grand total of 0% would in reality. And yet...

What about DAK's hours this summer?

 

[whiporee]

In terms of "regular" park hours, I think you go with what is stated when they first publish their schedule. For most of the year, that is 9-10. I During the coldest Florida weeks, it probably drops to 9-8 or 9-9. I don't think there's a time of year where the MK opens later than 9 am,

I do not and I am unsure why your first assumption is to assume that people who are unhappy with the parks are still visiting them. Aside from myself, I know of other people who have stopped visiting as well. I also know people who were planning trips to Disney World and based on my recommendation have reconsidered those plans

So in other words, your point in being here is to tell us it sucks? You don't go, you tell other people not to go, and yet you're posting here to tell us how bad Disney is, and do your best to make those who don't agree feel stupid for their preferences. You've go 28 posts, so it's not like you're a long-term DIS poster who's become disillusioned -- you just popped in to tell us Disney sucks. Okay, thanks for the insight.

I do not think the poster you quoted is astounded that people are different. I think the aforementioned poster is astounded that people would continue to pay more money while receiving less product. See: grocery store analogy

That only works if there's another store. In a place like WDW, you either decide it's worth it or you don't.

 

[lovethattink]

Another reminder to please keep it friendly.

 

[Boski]

@JimmyV great write up! quick question for you and @ajfd : where did you pull your data from in case some of us want to explore it more.

 

[JimmyV]

@JimmyV great write up! quick question for you and @ajfd : where did you pull your data from in case some of us want to explore it more.

Touring Plans. Using their Crowd Calendar feature, you can go back in time to see what the hours were for each park, what special events were taking place, whether there were extended hours or hard ticket events, and what the crowd levels were. As for the future, you can see what the published hours are, what special events are planned, and what the crowd level predictions are.

 

[Hikergirl]

But not everyone is getting less product (especially when there really is no official set hours WDW is open). Not everyone does WDW commado from open to close, some just do a few hours, some do half days. Being open 6 less hours this June as opposed to last June isn't a big deal to some people. You can't really compare an entire theme park hours with an item in the grocery store, its apples and oranges. While in that park there are many many things to do. A gallon of milk just gets you a gallon of milk.

Another thing to consider is value is not always about money, and its subjective to each individual. People can still find value in their WDW vacations even if park hours have been cut because there are other things about it they value more. Its not all black and white, and to be astounded that people happily pay makes no sense. People happily pay because they are still happy about what Disney offers them.

 

[JimmyV]

So what exactly are "regular park hours?" 10-8? 9-10? I'm talking "regular" hours, not what time MK was open in 1995, or 2004, or 2010, or even last year, just "regular hours?"

There really is no answer as it relates to "closing time". It cannot be said that "regular closing time" is 10:00, and if the MK stays open until 11:00, or 12:00 or 1:00, you should view that as "extended" hours. They move the dial as crowding and weather dictate. I think that based on my two year research (2015 and 2016), it is very fair to say that 9:00 a.m. is the "regular" opening time, and during some of the most crowded times of the year, they move that to 8:00 every now and then, and in the absolute craziest times of the year, you might even see a 7:00 opening. But the vast majority of days over the past two years, the MK has opened at 9:00. As for closing times, as you can see from post #14, there isn't enough consistency as between 10:00, 11:00 and 12:00 to choose. And that is just looking at April and May which tend to be busy-to-shoulder seasons. But when you get into the lowest attended times of the year, you see entirely different results. For example, between January 5, 2016 and January 31, 2016, (which is the slowest time of the year with the exception of MLK weekend), closing times were drastically different: 8:00 p.m.= 8 days; 9:00 p.m. = 6 days; 10:00 p.m. = 2 days; 11:00 p.m. = 5 days; 12:00 a.m. = 5 days; and 1:00 a.m. = 1 day. Couple that with the closing times in April and May, and it is clear that there is no "normal" closing time. It should be noted that the opening time in January held steady at 9:00 almost every day with a couple of 8:00 a.m. thrown in there.

 

[JimmyV]

But not everyone is getting less product. Not everyone does WDW commado from open to close, some just do a few hours. Being open 6 less hours this June as opposed to last June isn't a big deal to some people. You can't really compare an entire theme park with an item in the grocery store, its apples and oranges.

On one level, this is true. But you also have to consider the way crowd dynamics operate. If you only go to the park for 6 hours a day, and shrinking hours still afford you those same 6 hours, you could say that you haven't been adversely impacted. But from a crowd dynamics standpoint, you have been. When you take into consideration all of the guests in the aggregate, and you compress their visits into 14 hours instead of 17 hours, you crunch the crowd and your 6 hours are naturally more crowded. You were in the park for the same length of time, but your wait in the BTMRR line was likely longer. Just compress this further to see how it works. Assume that you are a local who likes to pop in to the MK for an hour each Wednesday, and you do so from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Now assume that on the next Wednesday that you go, the MK is only open from 4:00-7:00 p.m.. Your visit would be unbelievably crowded as everyone who wanted to go to the MK that day would be in the park at the same time as you. You still got your same one hour. But you probably only got to do one ride at best.

 

[Planogirl]

This is interesting. I'm all about trends so I'll be watching to see if this continues. I do agree that less hours will cause more crowded conditions assuming attendance stays the same. That's simple logic.

 

[lovethattink]

I'm that local that pops in weekly. Some days we don't ride anything. Not because of crowds but because of going to see streetmosphere shows, Launch Bay, or something like that. Or maybe going to the MK to play Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom. Crowds typically have little effect on my experience since typically we don't go for rides. This past Sunday was the first time in ages we went for rides at the MK. I wanted to try 4th FP+ for the first time and try pre-order in lunch at BOG.

 

[Tiggerette]

Thanks so much for your efforts on this. It's a question that's been on my mind.
As I mentioned in another thread, I think the grocery store analogy is apt with a real-life different perspective to it. A few years ago peanut butter jars were changed to hold less ounces, although the price remained the same or was increased in some stores. One could "shop around" for prices, but the fundamental product had changed to hold less. For example, the packaging kept the same overall appearance but circumference was slightly smaller, or there was a bulge into the interior of the bottom. Regardless of the store price paid, the product held less ounces than previous jars. I haven't heard of any example where a patron paid a smaller price commiserate with less product.

Being able to look a few analytics to ascertain whether less park hours are equivalent to less "ounces in the jar" is compelling. Thanks again for putting some time into it.

 

[Boski]

Another thing to consider is value is not always about money, and its subjective to each individual. People can still find value in their WDW vacations even if park hours have been cut because there are other things about it they value more. Its not all black and white, and to be astounded that people happily pay makes no sense. People happily pay because they are still happy about what Disney offers them.

This is absolutely true. Value for the money is subjective (I'm going to keep this on topic about hours and not overall park experience) and is up to each person or family to decide on if it is still worth it to them. But you have to understand to a lot of people hours of operation are very important.

 

[dalmatian7]

OP thanks for doing this, it makes for interesting thought. In-house data would prove interesting if you could compare hours available with retail/dining performance, customer satisfaction surveys, hotel occupancy, wait times, employee costs, services costs, etc. Of course this is also affected by weather, economic conditions, competitor pressure. I am curious what Disney (and other theme parks) use as evaluation reports, if anyone knows. Not quite as easy to analyse as a processing/manufacturing plant. Again, food for thought so thanks. I love this stuff

 

[dlavender]

Thanks for presenting the data. Great read. I do analytics for a living, so I always love a great trend!

 

[JimmyV]

Thanks for presenting the data. Great read. I do analytics for a living, so I always love a great trend!

I don't...so hopefully I didn't embarrass myself!

 

[WillAustin]

Well you could always choose to buy your milk elsewhere, just like you can choose to spend your vacation dollars elsewhere.

Maybe this is exactly what's happening with the drop in attendance.