AP Sales Paused

[tjkraz]

However, it is hard to say the company is doing well if you look at the stock prices over the last month. Sure, Omicron hit everything on Friday, but it seem there has just been constant the stock price going down. So, as a shareholder, I do want to ask management, what are you doing?

I think the prior poster's point is that there's danger in picking one (rather niche) hot button issue and assuming it's directly responsible for sweeping impact. Specifically, it's doubtful that Disneys stock price was impacted by the pause in AP sales. That isn't the type of factor large investors would zero in on as a symptom of larger problems. Even as some die hard theme park fans are voicing concerns about the quality of the product, parks, restaurants and hotels are routinely filling up.

Long term there is some danger that increases in prices or reductions in service could alienate the most rabid fans. But a lot of that damage (if it exists) can later be repaired by further tweaking prices and services down the road when WDW returns to more of a growth mode. Some churn is to be expected--WDW and Disneyland have gone thru decades of seeing some guests lose interest while younger families take their place.

Again, I'm not saying I agree with all of the changes execs have made. But from an investor standpoint, there's not a lot of evidence they should be concerned with the future of the parks when crowds are still coming.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think the prior poster's point is that there's danger in picking one (rather niche) hot button issue and assuming it's directly responsible for sweeping impact. Specifically, it's doubtful that Disneys stock price was impacted by the pause in AP sales. That isn't the type of factor large investors would zero in on as a symptom of larger problems. Even as some die hard theme park fans are voicing concerns about the quality of the product, parks, restaurants and hotels are routinely filling up.

Long term there is some danger that increases in prices or reductions in service could alienate the most rabid fans. But a lot of that damage (if it exists) can later be repaired by further tweaking prices and services down the road when WDW returns to more of a growth mode. Some churn is to be expected--WDW and Disneyland have gone thru decades of seeing some guests lose interest while younger families take their place.

Again, I'm not saying I agree with all of the changes execs have made. But from an inventor standpoint, there's not a lot of evidence they should be concerned with the future of the parks when crowds are still coming.

I agree. I think something like the recent relatively soft box office numbers for the Phase 4 Marvel MCU releases would be more likely to have a greater effect on stock prices. Poor box office could suggest a waning interest in Marvel that could have a ripple effect across the entire IP beyond just the film division, including softening merchandise sales (a huge revenue stream), reduced interest in Disney+ offerings (because Marvel and Star Wars really need to drive the streaming service, not 700 episodes of The Simpsons), third party licensing revenue, and the introduction of new IP into the parks as tools for attendance draws there.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

My guess is that it's closer to normal capacity numbers right now than one would think. We were there in early November and it was much more crowded than in our previous trip at that time of the year in 2019, it wasn't even close and included all parks. Most hotels were full including some we checked off property before we found a value at AKL for our arrival night. Disney isn't going to announce that they are at 100% because that would only serve to scare people into not coming but I bet they aren't far away.

They are not running at 100% capacity, and not as close as your might think. Although it seems a lot is open, there are still a lot of crowd eaters that are not. Examples - in MK, Meet and Greets (now Sightings) used to have people lined up, and do not exist. Parades - gone. PhillarMagic, Railroad are closed. Sorcerers is closed. At Animal Kingdom, Nemo, Primeval whirl (gone), Epcot, the entire middle which had a lot of people, Canada. Hollywood has probably the biggest amount with Fantasmic, Indiana Jones, Jedi Training, Little Mermaid, Launch Bay...

Even if you discount those things, the rides are not running at 100% capacity. With increased cleaning, they are running slower and with less vehicles on the tracks.

Pop up entertainment is all but gone at the moment (a BIG crowd eater in EPCOT and Hollywood).

Restaurant's are running at reduced table capacity (check out Chef Mickeys sometime - very few tables). Dinner shows are not open (Hoop Dee Doo, Luau). Typhoon Lagoon is still closed.

Big areas of the parks are still under renovation which were not planned to be closed to accommodate the crowds with the 50th.

Disney hotels are not at 100% capacity either. Only recently, did AKL just open Jambo house, Riverside, and French Quarter. They still have not opened All-star sports (2 weeks?)

But mainly it's the crowd eaters are missing (shows, street performers, etc), Genie+ is a confusing beast and not packing them into waiting lines anymore, and the rides are not fully utilized due to lack of staffing. These types of things are harder to spot with the naked eye.

I probably didn't make myself clear (well, it was clear in my head, but sometimes it gets lost as a type).

As a DVC owner, and AP holder, it is not impacting me at all that they have again paused AP sales.

I personally think that AP holders are the "bread and butter" business for Disney Parks. It is those people who go often, it is those people that bring friends and family. So, I think doing things that annoy them is counter productive.

I am not an expert in the operations of an amusement park, just a frequenter of many. However, my point above could be very wrong. I do not know.

As an investor, and a Disney shareholder, I am often conflated. Something that may be good for the company my be not so good for me, the park visitor.

However, it is hard to say the company is doing well if you look at the stock prices over the last month. Sure, Omicron hit everything on Friday, but it seem there has just been constant the stock price going down. So, as a shareholder, I do want to ask management, what are you doing?

Yeah, I get ya. I admit, I was happier with the stock nearing $190 then $150. Are there things that Disney could have done better for the Pandemic? ABSOLUTELY. Have they done everything perfectly? Of course not. However, the stock price is only partially reflective of their mistakes. It's also driven (as these things often are) by bigger winds in the market. A lot of stocks went sky-rocketing early this year when there was hope the Pandemic was almost over. A lot of them never materialized, or shrunk after - this is not just Disney, and you have to look at Disney along with the bigger picture - my entire portfolio has struggled to maintain the gains it had in May and has slipped in a few major industries - Travel and Leisure being perhaps the biggest.

TBH I was surprised they opened AP's as soon as they did. I personally was clamoring for them as a DVC member who has had to pay rack rates for several trips. But I also understand the challenges of selling too many and stopping the sales made sense in the overall context and most of wall street understands that. What is disappointing wall street is that we have not had to HUGE OVERWHELMING recovery that was expected around the end of the summer / early fall. That's not just Disney - that's all T&L.

Also, P&R is only 30% of their portfolio. Depressing sales for DCL, Movie releases, and Disney+ are major concerns.

 

[ldo]

Family of 4 with myw tickets, waiting to try genie in Jan before converting them to AP. I told the “kids” in college that if there’s no AP in Jan, then no wdw this summer and it’s universal next Jan. We’ve used all of our dvc thru 12/22, so I’ll consider options then. 15 years of great times! Wising for the 10 day NE tickets-still have a few days left.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Seems like if they are worried about overcrowding and park reservations, they would also pause renewals.
Selling renewals just seems contradictory to me.

 

[Sandisw]

Seems like if they are worried about overcrowding and park reservations, they would also pause renewals.
Selling renewals just seems contradictory to me.

Those people are probably already counted in the figures in terms of number of potential people booking.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

some poor box office is also due to consumers still not returning to movie theaters due to Covid, not always about the quality of the films. Also overseas release numbers.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Those people are probably already counted in the figures in terms of number of potential people booking.

So why should they get priority?

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Now I’m hearing day tickets are opening up for certain holidays???
Proves my point.

 

[Sandisw]

So why should they get priority?

Why shouldn’t they?

 

[Sandisw]

Now I’m hearing day tickets are opening up for certain holidays???
Proves my point.

How? Maybe there are lots of cancellations of travel from people which opened up that bucket?

The fact that they stopped selling MYW tickets last week and now opened up sales again for other days previously blocked tells me that it is definitely capacity

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Why shouldn’t they?

Why should they?

 

[Maistre Gracey]

How? Maybe there are lots of cancellations of travel from people which opened up that bucket?

The fact that they stopped selling MYW tickets last week and now opened up sales again for other days previously blocked tells me that it is definitely capacity

Tells me they were holding back for more money.

 

[zavandor]

Has park pass availability opened up? Some days during the holidays were sold out for ticket and resort guests but were open for AP. If they reallocated capacity across the buckets and days are available, then tickets sale restarts immediately.
It is just common sense they stop selling tickets if parks have no capacity. One could buy a ticket before looking at park pass reservations and ending not having anywhere to use them.

 

[tiana1989]

Day tickets are also dated, so it makes sense to stop selling them when there are no more reservations available and start sales again when they open up. APs are different because you’re technically buying access to the parks on any day that’s not blocked out by your pass, which is now hindered by the fact that even with eligibility you can’t get in if reservations are full. I think they’re trying to avoid the Disneyland Dream Key fiasco where people were buying a 365-day, no blockout pass but getting locked out of the parks for weeks at a time. They don’t want hundreds of Incredipass holders demanding a refund because they just bought an AP (one that costs $400 more specifically for 3 weeks during the holidays) and can’t go until March, and depending on when they resume sales and for which passes, their analytics must be showing demand will continue pass the New Year once other passes will be out of their blockout periods and expecting access too.

 

[Sandisw]

Why should they?

Again, why shouldnt those who have a pass be allowed to renew? Give me a valid reason.

I already gave one. They are already AP holders. Sales stopped for new peop,e

 

[Sandisw]

Tells me they were holding back for more money.

Which is where we disagree.

 

[WB1971]

I see a lot more excuses why Disney can’t do things on here than I’d expect. They claimed as a company they made a profit even during the darkest quarters last year. If their reporting isn’t book cooking, why not expect more? Did they HAVE to lay-off all the cast? No. Did they have to decimate the college program? No. Did they have to run restaurants and rides at limited capacity in Florida for so darn long? No. If universal and Sea World can do things, why can’t Disney? To me it’s simple mismanagement. Out of touch leaders with no sense of their audience. Not unusual in corporate America, but certainly not getting a pass from criticism.

 

[New Mouse]

I see a lot more excuses why Disney can’t do things on here than I’d expect. They claimed as a company they made a profit even during the darkest quarters last year. If their reporting isn’t book cooking, why not expect more? Did they HAVE to lay-off all the cast? No. Did they have to decimate the college program? No. Did they have to run restaurants and rides at limited capacity in Florida for so darn long? No. If universal and Sea World can do things, why can’t Disney? To me it’s simple mismanagement. Out of touch leaders with no sense of their audience. Not unusual in corporate America, but certainly not getting a pass from criticism.

Mismanagement would assume this was unintentional. It was not.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Again, why shouldnt those who have a pass be allowed to renew? Give me a valid reason.

I already gave one. They are already AP holders. Sales stopped for new peop,e

Respectfully, that’s not a valid reason IMO.
I could just as easily say “because they should give others a turn at it”.
Both are bogus IMO.
If they are selling X number of APs, it should be first come first served. I don’t think someone should be able to lock up a slot for life, plus be able to add kids as they turn 3.