AP Sales Paused

[starry_solo]

I have never had an AP, probably never will.When I saw this announcement I was reminded of this scene.
View attachment 625848
Im sure many people were hoping to upgrade at the end of their trip since Thanksgiving is blacked out now. Really stinks for a lot of people.

Can't upgrade to an AP that had thanksgiving as blocked out. So, it wouldn't have "saved" them any money.

 

[pinkxray]

Can't upgrade to an AP that had thanksgiving as blocked out. So, it wouldn't have "saved" them any money.

I must have the dates wrong. I am going the week after Thanksgiving so I thought in that case, if you traveled this week but we’re still in WDW Nov. 30 you would have been able to upgrade. I thought the black out ended Nov. 30 but we don’t usually do enough park days to get APs so I didn’t research it too much.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

Can't upgrade to an AP that had thanksgiving as blocked out. So, it wouldn't have "saved" them any money.

They could've upgraded to Incredipass.

 

[Sandisw]

Could be because of capacity or maybe it's not, who knows? This could be handled so much better by just being honest and open with their customers. Why "pause" without explanation, what is the big secret? I "paused" my add on purchase and told my guide exactly why I was "pausing" it.

I agree that giving a little more detail would have helped many at least understand the thinking. I also agree Disney has never been good at that.

 

[wfjny]

We bought at BLT back in 2009. How we did this, Disney had actually set up a sales office in our local shopping mall (Roosevelt Field on Long Island). They had set up a complete two bedroom suite, the exact size that they were building. They even had the baloneys, and on the wall outside the balcony, they had a mural of looking over the Magic Kingdom, with the fireworks going off.

I would imagine that if they did that again today, instead of a mural, they would probably have a live feed of the park being projected. Complete with a if you purchase today, “Come back tonight at 9:00 to watch the fireworks.” They would provide a mini “desert” party. But I digress…

I had researched for several months about DVC. I spoke with several friends that had DVC, In the end, I knew exactly what I was buying, what I was paying for, what I was signing. I had seen enough episodes of Judge Judy to know no matter what some said, the only thing that matters is what is inside the four corners of the contract.

But to be clear, that is not what the sales people were selling. They were selling you a lifestyle. They were selling you a piece of the magic. They were selling you the opportunity to come back multiple times. And of course, as your life changes, so can your plans. Instead of using all our points for a week in the two bedroom, we could easily get a studio for two weeks. Or we could even stay at another resort, probably even for less points.

Do not get me wrong. I am very happy with what we bought, and I do think it has added value for us. Over the years, there have been various perks we have taken advantage of. They included, for several years we could buy AP vouchers for $300 less. For a family of 5, that was a savings of $1,500, or enough to pay our maintenance fee for the year. There were other discounts that we were able to take advantage of. When we moved from LI to NC, it completely changed how we do Disney. We went from trying to do the two big summer trips on one annual pass to also doing a ton of long weekend trips.

But, as I have said before, I only have so much money for our “Entertainment Budget”. While I believe we have had a lot of value to our Disney spending in the past, we shall see what the future holds. When we feel it is no longer a good bang for the buck, we will probably change.

The inability to use the AP the way it used to be is very much in the foreground. The inability to get park reservations has also changed how we again do Disney. That coupled with the increased prices for APs, I am seeing less value. Not just me, look at their stock price. In March it was over $200, now it is below $150. Hell, it was above $175 at the beginning of the month. Sure, lets piss more people off. Perhaps they are trying to drive their stock price down…

Only time will tell.

 

[wfjny]

Yeah ours aren’t expired yet, and we won’t let them ever again without buying new ones first. We will buy new ones before our renewal window expires to make sure we will be able.We are hoping they start reselling by the time ours expire in February. Either way I am buying something in February. Either renewals, or new passes that we won’t activate until later. But I will never again let myself lapse with nothing. We got lucky with the closure that we bought them right before they shut down and never got shut out

I also wonder if that is part of their plan. Almost everyone that I know did the same thing we did. Effectively, in odd years we went in August, in even years we went in July. In the odd years, we bought an AP, that was still active when we went in the even year. But again, at that point, Disney was really a plane ride away, and I could not see going more than once a year.

With Disney now being just an 8 hour car ride, we have kept the APs going. We never used to renew. Even in our current setup, why would I pay for a renewal if I was not going to go back for 3 months. I would just buy a new one on the next trip.

Now, we too just renew. You never know what will happen next…

 

[The Jackal]

Disney’s stock price has been dropping steadily since they paused selling AP’s. Nice move CHEAPek!!!!!! Investors must be thrilled.

 

[Brian Noble]

Just as a reminder: the stock price started its sharp negative move on the 10th, well before this happened. That was the day that 21Q4 and FY21 earnings were released, and the primary reason cited was the loss of momentum of D+ subscriptions.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...get-cuts-even-by-bullish-analysts-11636650859
Amusingly, the MarketWatch quote from the 22nd (the day of the pause) was:

The Walt Disney Co.’s shared closed up 0.1%, after the company said Walt Disney World temporarily stopped selling most annual passes less than two months after reviving the program following a pandemic-related pause.

(Note that I removed the live stock price from the quote, because those numbers are today's performance, and everyone is tanking today.)

That was a little better than the DOW that day (up a bit under 0.1%) and much better than SP500 (-0.3%). No one was panic selling on this news. Far from it.

I know we like to think our corner of the Disneyverse is the center of it all, but often it is far from it.

 

[dclpluto]

Disney’s stock price has been dropping steadily since they paused selling AP’s. Nice move CHEAPek!!!!!! Investors must be thrilled.

mostly all stocks are dropping at this time. It will come back up just like most of the other stocks.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

stocks are supposedly dropping today based on the news of a new Covid variant discovered in South Africa. some scientists think this one could be worse than Delta. Nobody really knows yet though

 

[zumfelde]

I don't know why Disney doesn't just get rid of annual passes. It doesn't seem they need them need them to fill the parks anymore. The parks are busy all year round anymore and restaurants are always full why let people buy tickets that only cost a small percentage per day of what the non-annual pass people pay. Disney biggest problem right now is to much demand if AP people cut back on their trips that will lessen the overcrowding or there are always people ready to take their place.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Or get rid of the silly and unnecessary reservation system and go back to what somehow basically worked for everyone for almost 49 years. Parks would reach actual capacity during the day a few days a year and that was okay.

they are not near pre-pandemic capacity right now. Only they have the data, but I imagine if we had it, we’d see predictive models of parks closing due to capacity by 10am on most days in December.

the reservation system is what is preventing that. pausing APs is helping against overselling a product that can’t be used.

like I said, no good solution, but they are making the best choices they can in the situation they are in.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Not just me, look at their stock price. In March it was over $200, now it is below $150. Hell, it was above $175 at the beginning of the month. Sure, lets piss more people off. Perhaps they are trying to drive their stock price down…

Disney’s stock price has been dropping steadily since they paused selling AP’s. Nice move CHEAPek!!!!!! Investors must be thrilled.

a tree fell in Brazil. The price of a movie went up in Seattle. Just because both of these things happened, does not mean they are related.

the dropping of the stock price was largly attributed to Disney+ sales after the investors call and earnings report. the further dropping is related to stock market general weariness of a slow recovery, supply chain issues, depressed seasonal spending, the Omicron variant, and a host of other worrisome news for wall street. completely unrelated to pausing AP’s. Wall Street has been neutral to positive over the pausing of AP sales.

 

[eandt]

I don't know why Disney doesn't just get rid of annual passes. It doesn't seem they need them need them to fill the parks anymore. The parks are busy all year round anymore and restaurants are always full why let people buy tickets that only cost a small percentage per day of what the non-annual pass people pay. Disney biggest problem right now is to much demand if AP people cut back on their trips that will lessen the overcrowding or there are always people ready to take their place.

they are not near pre-pandemic capacity right now. Only they have the data, but I imagine if we had it, we’d see predictive models of parks closing due to capacity by 10am on most days in December.

the reservation system is what is preventing that. pausing APs is helping against overselling a product that can’t be used.

like I said, no good solution, but they are making the best choices they can in the situation they are in.

My guess is that it's closer to normal capacity numbers right now than one would think. We were there in early November and it was much more crowded than in our previous trip at that time of the year in 2019, it wasn't even close and included all parks. Most hotels were full including some we checked off property before we found a value at AKL for our arrival night. Disney isn't going to announce that they are at 100% because that would only serve to scare people into not coming but I bet they aren't far away.

 

[tjkraz]

My guess is that it's closer to normal capacity numbers right now than one would think. We were there in early November and it was much more crowded than in our previous trip at that time of the year in 2019, it wasn't even close and included all parks.

- It's certainly conceivable that there are individual days when crowds are larger than in recent years

- Parks may also appear fuller due to a variety of factors (reduced use of FP+ / LL queues, many stage shows shuttered, limited character meets, some peoples' reluctance to linger indoors in shops and restaurants, shorter operating hours, etc.)

- Thanks to the Park Pass system, it's indisputable that the parks are reaching current capacity far more than pre-covid. Far, far more.

Most hotels were full including some we checked off property before we found a value at AKL for our arrival night. Disney isn't going to announce that they are at 100% because that would only serve to scare people into not coming but I bet they aren't far away.

Agree that hotel reservations are hard to come by at times. However, do we know for a fact that the Disney resorts are actually operating at maximum capacity? If resorts are holding back rooms due to staffing or other issues, they likely have fewer guests than years past.

 

[eandt]

- It's certainly conceivable that there are individual days when crowds are larger than in recent years

- Parks may also appear fuller due to a variety of factors (reduced use of FP+ / LL queues, many stage shows shuttered, limited character meets, some peoples' reluctance to linger indoors in shops and restaurants, shorter operating hours, etc.)

- Thanks to the Park Pass system, it's indisputable that the parks are reaching current capacity far more than pre-covid. Far, far more.



Agree that hotel reservations are hard to come by at times. However, do we know for a fact that the Disney resorts are actually operating at maximum capacity? If resorts are holding back rooms due to staffing or other issues, they likely have fewer guests than years past.

Yep that was my point we don't know and we probably will never know, but I believe based on what we experienced a couple weeks ago they are much closer to full capacity than some believe ...... even the restaurants were full and I didn't see a noticable difference in the amount of tables pre and post closing at least in the few places we were able to find a reservation (Steakhouse 71, Trattoria, Yak & Yeti, Grand Floridian Cafe, Ale and Compass)

 

[pindecisive]

...This is all about running leaner with less staff and less product. In the meantime they raise prices to even out the bottom line...

I'd be curious to see exactly how much money Disney has lost through Covid impact, since googling it states $2.4 billion.

To me personally, I've always thought AP's were pretty generous.

Or get rid of the silly and unnecessary reservation system and go back to what somehow basically worked for everyone for almost 49 years. Parks would reach actual capacity during the day a few days a year and that was okay.

Okay is relative and I honestly disagree. 2015 was a terrible DL trip for us. The crowding was so bad we didn't come back for 4 years.

Even with some rides and shops closed, 25% capacity for DL in May 2021 was one of the best trips we've ever taken. If I could pay twice to three times my ticket price and be assured I don't have to wait more than 20 minutes for a ride? I'd pay it.

The anger on the basis of wanting to pay less and expecting Disney to have the same level of service and resources after losing $2.4 billion. It's not there for me.

 

[tjkraz]

Yep that was my point we don't know and we probably will never know, but I believe based on what we experienced a couple weeks ago they are much closer to full capacity than some believe...

I'm hesitant to put a number to it. But even if they're down 10%, that's still a big hole in your P&L. If I were forced to budget my household with 10% less income--combined with current inflationary operating costs--it would be difficult. Some believe Disney should just bite the bullet and earn less profit. That's not particularly realistic in 2021 after suffering billions in losses and still facing an uncertain future. It's more about finding the least painful places to cut.

...... even the restaurants were full and I didn't see a noticable difference in the amount of tables pre and post closing at least in the few places we were able to find a reservation (Steakhouse 71, Trattoria, Yak & Yeti, Grand Floridian Cafe, Ale and Compass)

Perhaps but many locations still aren't open. Off the top of my head: Flying Fish, ESPN club, Turf Club, Victoria & Alberts, Jiko, 1900 Park Fare, Artist Point...

Whether they're closed due to lack of staffing or lack of customers, it's still lost revenue.

 

[eandt]

I'm hesitant to put a number to it. But even if they're down 10%, that's still a big hole in your P&L. If I were forced to budget my household with 10% less income--combined with current inflationary operating costs--it would be difficult. Some believe Disney should just bite the bullet and earn less profit. That's not particularly realistic in 2021 after suffering billions in losses and still facing an uncertain future. It's more about finding the least painful places to cut.



Perhaps but many locations still aren't open. Off the top of my head: Flying Fish, ESPN club, Turf Club, Victoria & Alberts, Jiko, 1900 Park Fare, Artist Point...

Whether they're closed due to lack of staffing or lack of customers, it's still lost revenue.

Perhaps, ............ I can only judge by past experience and parks, restaurants, and hotels were much busier. We will never know because Disney will never say.

 

[wfjny]

a tree fell in Brazil. The price of a movie went up in Seattle. Just because both of these things happened, does not mean they are related.

the dropping of the stock price was largely attributed to Disney+ sales after the investors call and earnings report. the further dropping is related to stock market general weariness of a slow recovery, supply chain issues, depressed seasonal spending, the Omicron variant, and a host of other worrisome news for wall street. completely unrelated to pausing AP’s. Wall Street has been neutral to positive over the pausing of AP sales.

I probably didn't make myself clear (well, it was clear in my head, but sometimes it gets lost as a type).

As a DVC owner, and AP holder, it is not impacting me at all that they have again paused AP sales.

I personally think that AP holders are the "bread and butter" business for Disney Parks. It is those people who go often, it is those people that bring friends and family. So, I think doing things that annoy them is counter productive.

I am not an expert in the operations of an amusement park, just a frequenter of many. However, my point above could be very wrong. I do not know.

As an investor, and a Disney shareholder, I am often conflated. Something that may be good for the company my be not so good for me, the park visitor.

However, it is hard to say the company is doing well if you look at the stock prices over the last month. Sure, Omicron hit everything on Friday, but it seem there has just been constant the stock price going down. So, as a shareholder, I do want to ask management, what are you doing?